ATL: SAM - Models

[kevin]

Just for a historical reference / statistics, only 10 hurricanes made landfall in the US while originating from the east (I took passing east of Cuba as 'east', Matthew is kind of an edge case) in October, November or December since 1851. Of this subset only 2 passed north of the Caribbean while forming roughly in the MDR (basically the potential set-up for 98L): the 1898 and 1893 hurricanes. It seems to indicate that a US landfall from such a set-up is extremely rare so for now I'm not worrying about that aspect too much (yet). The entire list, in chronological order:

Year / Name / Month / Landfalling state / Wind speed @LF (kt) / Pressure @LF (mb) / Cat@LF

2016 / Matthew / Oct / South Carolina / 75 / 967 / 1
2012 / Sandy* / Oct / New Jersey / 70 / 945 / 1
1966 / Inez / Oct / Florida / 75 / 984 / 1
1954 / Hazel / Oct / South and North Carolina / 115 / 938 / 4
1941 / Unnamed / Oct / Florida / 85 / ?? / 2
1935 / Unnamed / Nov / Florida / 85 / 973 / 2
1913 / Unnamed / Oct / South Carolina / 65 / ?? / 1
1898 / Unnamed / Oct / Georgia / 115 / 938 / 4
1893 / Unnamed / Oct / South Carolina / 105 / 955 / 3
1869 / Unnamed / Oct / Maine / 90 / ?? / 2

* = extra-tropical at landfall

Here are the two 'worst-case scenarios' (1898 and 1893):

1898 Georgia hurricane


1893 Great Charleston Hurricane

[sma10]

Am I the only one getting 1780 vibes?

[edu2703]

Am I the only one getting 1780 vibes?

I think it's the first time I've seen anyone using the Great Hurricane of 1780 as a reference.

[skyline385]

Am I the only one getting 1780 vibes?

I think it's the first time I've seen anyone using the Great Hurricane of 1780 as a reference.

There aren't any records of its track though right?

I thought his comment was meant as a joke lol

[AutoPenalti]

Am I the only one getting 1780 vibes?

I think it's the first time I've seen anyone using the Great Hurricane of 1780 as a reference.

There aren't any records of its track though right?

Sadly no as tracks only go back to 1851.

[sma10]

Am I the only one getting 1780 vibes?

I think it's the first time I've seen anyone using the Great Hurricane of 1780 as a reference.

There aren't any records of its track though right?

I thought his comment was meant as a joke lol

Yes, of course, it was tongue in cheek.
Just a gentle jibe at all those "I'm getting a strong Gilbert vibe"- type posts whenever a swirl appears off Africa

[LarryWx]

Out of 51 12Z EPS members, 2 hit S FL from the SE/S, 1 is in the GOM moving NE, and just about all of the rest miss the CONUS. Even though there are only three assumed hits, ~25% make it at least as far W as 70W, which is uncomfortably too close to feel confident about a safe recurve from the CONUS based on this run:

You can see the two S FL hits on this 360 hour map as well as the one in the GOM, which is moving NE:

[SFLcane]

Out of 51 12Z EPS members, 2 hit S FL from the SE/S, 1 is in the GOM moving NE, and just about all of the rest miss the CONUS. Even though there are only three assumed hits, ~25% make it at least as far W as 70W, which is uncomfortably too close to feel confident about a safe recurve from the CONUS based on this run:

You can see the two S FL hits on this 360 hour map as well as the one in the GOM, which is moving NE:

https://i.imgur.com/F4dolYc.png

Lol, Looks like a pretty clean recurve except for a couple rogue members.

[AutoPenalti]

Out of 51 12Z EPS members, 2 hit S FL from the SE/S, 1 is in the GOM moving NE, and just about all of the rest miss the CONUS. Even though there are only three assumed hits, ~25% make it at least as far W as 70W, which is uncomfortably too close to feel confident about a safe recurve from the CONUS based on this run:

You can see the two S FL hits on this 360 hour map as well as the one in the GOM, which is moving NE:

https://i.imgur.com/F4dolYc.png

Meh. Recurve it is!

[SFLcane]

Out of 51 12Z EPS members, 2 hit S FL from the SE/S, 1 is in the GOM moving NE, and just about all of the rest miss the CONUS. Even though there are only three assumed hits, ~25% make it at least as far W as 70W, which is uncomfortably too close to feel confident about a safe recurve from the CONUS based on this run:

You can see the two S FL hits on this 360 hour map as well as the one in the GOM, which is moving NE:

https://i.imgur.com/F4dolYc.png

Meh. Recurve it is!

Outside of the impacts to the gulfcoast this entire season has been one big home run.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Out of 51 12Z EPS members, 2 hit S FL from the SE/S, 1 is in the GOM moving NE, and just about all of the rest miss the CONUS. Even though there are only three assumed hits, ~25% make it at least as far W as 70W, which is uncomfortably too close to feel confident about a safe recurve from the CONUS based on this run:

You can see the two S FL hits on this 360 hour map as well as the one in the GOM, which is moving NE:

https://i.imgur.com/F4dolYc.png

Meh. Recurve it is!

Outside of the impacts to the gulfcoast this entire season has been one big home run.

Sure, if you're willing to discount Claudette inland across the Southeast; Danny (lol); Elsa, Fred, and Grace all with Caribbean/inland flooding/Caribbean and Yucatan impacts respectively; Henri in the Northeast; Ida in the Caribbean/Venezuela; and Larry in Newfoundland.

Looks like a home run season to me

[sma10]

Out of 51 12Z EPS members, 2 hit S FL from the SE/S, 1 is in the GOM moving NE, and just about all of the rest miss the CONUS. Even though there are only three assumed hits, ~25% make it at least as far W as 70W, which is uncomfortably too close to feel confident about a safe recurve from the CONUS based on this run:

You can see the two S FL hits on this 360 hour map as well as the one in the GOM, which is moving NE:

https://i.imgur.com/F4dolYc.png

Of note, many members make the system strong. Also, approx 10-15% of members show tracks with impact to SE US and Bahamas. Believe it or not, that is a significant pct for something currently spinning around at 20W. I wouldn't wager anything on it tho.

[ConvergenceZone]

Out of 51 12Z EPS members, 2 hit S FL from the SE/S, 1 is in the GOM moving NE, and just about all of the rest miss the CONUS. Even though there are only three assumed hits, ~25% make it at least as far W as 70W, which is uncomfortably too close to feel confident about a safe recurve from the CONUS based on this run:

You can see the two S FL hits on this 360 hour map as well as the one in the GOM, which is moving NE:

https://i.imgur.com/F4dolYc.png

Meh. Recurve it is!

Outside of the impacts to the gulfcoast this entire season has been one big home run.

I agree, the East Coast has been incredibly lucky this season, with no signs of that changing. In fact the chance of changing now that we are heading into October in about a week is extremely slim since fronts will starts coming down even more often....

[skyline385]

Meh. Recurve it is!

Outside of the impacts to the gulfcoast this entire season has been one big home run.

Sure, if you're willing to discount Claudette inland across the Southeast; Danny (lol); Elsa, Fred, and Grace all with Caribbean/inland flooding/Caribbean and Yucatan impacts respectively; Henri in the Northeast; Ida in the Caribbean/Venezuela; and Larry in Newfoundland.

Looks like a home run season to me

I think Ida and Grace were the only ones with significant impact. It's still too early to call this season a home run though...

[skyline385]

Meh. Recurve it is!

Outside of the impacts to the gulfcoast this entire season has been one big home run.

I agree, the East Coast has been incredibly lucky this season, with no signs of that changing. In fact the chance of changing now that we are heading into October in about a week is extremely slim since fronts will starts coming down even more often....

But October is the peak period for landfalling systems in Florida though? Unless Florida is no longer part of the East coast lol

[grapealcoholic]

Meh. Recurve it is!

Outside of the impacts to the gulfcoast this entire season has been one big home run.

I agree, the East Coast has been incredibly lucky this season, with no signs of that changing. In fact the chance of changing now that we are heading into October in about a week is extremely slim since fronts will starts coming down even more often....

Except for catastrophic flooding in new england of course

[SFLcane]

Ok,

Home run in the sense most tc’s have turned near 60w.

Back to 98L.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Ok,

Home run in the sense most tc’s have turned near 60w.

Most tcs made landfall. Even Larry made landfall. That would mean 10 landfalls on the mainland (North America) from the Atlantic. 10/17 tc made landfall. 59% have made landfall. Sure is a homer of Tc's slamming into America!

[skyline385]

Ok,

Home run in the sense most tc’s have turned near 60w.

Most tcs made landfall. Even Larry made landfall. That would mean 10 landfalls on the mainland (North America) from the Atlantic. 10/17 tc made landfall. 59% have made landfall. Sure is a homer of Tc's slamming into America!

I don't think including 40 kt disorganised systems making landfall counts as slamming into America.

Ida, Grace and Larry were the big ones obviously. Other than that we have had 3 low Cat 1 so far and 10 TS. I honestly wouldn't even mind a TS landfalling here in Florida, some of the heavy downpours we get probably bring more rain than a weak TS lol.

Ida and Grace were bad but if the season were to end like this, it would be a huge respite from the expectations we had from this season even though it's still technically above average...

[abajan]

I was going to post this in just the disco thread, but it's appropriate here too.

[youtube]https://youtu.be/W5xtLrgUe8g[/youtube]