ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

[SconnieCane]

Looks like this will be the "fun times ahead" invest/cyclone it once appeared that 95L/Peter would be. Lots of moving parts with as has been mentioned the other weak TCs/ex-TCs possibly drifting around the Atlantic several days down the line and throwing wrenches into the usual ridge/trough pattern. Very complex setup that probably won't be resolved well by any model in the long or even medium range.

[cycloneye]

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98L)

B. 20/1730Z

C. 9.6N

D. 23.3W

E. FIVE/MET-11

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS 3/10 BANDING RESULTING IN A DT OF 1.5. THE 24
HR TREND IS DEVELOPING. MET IS 1.0 AND PT IS 1.5. FT IS BASED ON PT DUE
TO PARTS OF BANDING BEING BROKEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY MAKING IT
NOT CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...PATEL

[Sciencerocks]

[tolakram]

Eye like feature so soon!

[cycloneye]

AL, 98, 2021092018, , BEST, 0, 92N, 228W, 25, 1009, DB

[aspen]

Quite a potent MLC already. Perhaps the HMON is right about rapid genesis over the next two days.

[Iceresistance]

Quite a potent MLC already. Perhaps the HMON is right about rapid genesis over the next two days.

Quite similar to how Larry started just 2 weeks before . . .

[ChrisH-UK]

95L looks to have a good rotation and maybe a eye forming.

[SconnieCane]

98L looks to have a good rotation and maybe a eye forming.

https://imgur.com/nkdGwPu

Can't be an eye yet, but already looks more TC-like than Odette ever did, and better than Peter has ever since it was named.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Clearly the system continues to organize. Also some convergence does appear to be occurring which will help the system maintain convection unlike Peter in its early stages.

[grapealcoholic]

Looks like things are happening near 7N 26W

[ScottNAtlanta]

98L looks to have a good rotation and maybe a eye forming.

https://imgur.com/nkdGwPu

Can't be an eye yet, but already looks more TC-like than Odette ever did, and better than Peter has ever since it was named.

I believe he was joking about the eye like feature

[ScottNAtlanta]

Eye like feature so soon!

Am I like the only one that got that this was supposed to be funny (which I thought it was)

[Hurrilurker]

The rotation is fully there now, clearly, it just needs to get stacked. But it's coming together quickly.

[tolakram]

Eye like feature so soon!

Am I like the only one that got that this was supposed to be funny (which I thought it was)

Ha, anything that looks like a hole in the middle gets labeled eye like feature. I guess I should have added a

[abajan]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/W5xtLrgUe8g[/youtube]

[grapealcoholic]

Looks like this might be a rather large storm

[aspen]

This is behaving just like the precursor waves to Grace, Kate, and Larry: they had excellent spiral structures early on with strong MLCs, then that original convection waned but was replaced with new convection that, over the following days, translated the circulation down to the surface.

[AlphaToOmega]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
several hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands continue to
show some signs of organization, although recent satellite wind data
indicate that the system lacks a surface circulation. Upper-level
winds, however, are expected to become conducive for further
development during the next day or two, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by Thursday or Friday while the system moves westward
at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic
Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[zzh]