ATL: SAM - Models
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
The 18z GFS is stalling 98L in the Central Atlantic in the long run, I've never seen that before . . .
Last edited by Iceresistance on Mon Sep 20, 2021 6:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
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Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
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Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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grapealcoholic
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Iceresistance wrote:The 12z GFS is stalling 98L in the Central Atlantic in the long run, I've never seen that before . . .
It's a busted run and doesn't line up with the GEFS at all.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Iceresistance wrote:The 12z GFS is stalling 98L in the Central Atlantic in the long run, I've never seen that before . . .
18Z*
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Cat5James wrote:Iceresistance wrote:The 12z GFS is stalling 98L in the Central Atlantic in the long run, I've never seen that before . . .
18Z*
Thanks . . .
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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grapealcoholic
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Despite staying further east and going over cooler waters in comparison to other runs, that’s still an easy 20-30 ACE on the 18z GFS.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
18z HMON is now showing a more reasonable evolution that’s more in line with the HWRF and globals: slow development with a TD/TS forming between late Thursday and early Friday.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
no matter how stupid it is, it’s still a solution. 
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
18z HWRF simulated IR suggests 98L will be experiencing shear in the 4-5 day range.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
So I guess all of the current model forecasts are gonna get chucked out the window soon…
Or is this gonna pump the ridge like Chanthu was forecast to? Or is it going to enhance a TUTT like Maysak last year?
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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skyline385
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
aspen wrote:
So I guess all of the current model forecasts are gonna get chucked out the window soon…
Or is this gonna pump the ridge like Chanthu was forecast to? Or is it going to enhance a TUTT like Maysak last year?
Seems like it just amplifies the pattern, which could do either - but mostly just makes the forecast harder to predict. Add in the unknown future states of Peter, Rose, and the remnants of Odette, and its gonna be tricky - hopefully its well out to see though.
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Bocadude85
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
kevin wrote:Just for a historical reference / statistics, only 10 hurricanes made landfall in the US while originating from the east (I took passing east of Cuba as 'east', Matthew is kind of an edge case) in October, November or December since 1851. Of this subset only 2 passed north of the Caribbean while forming roughly in the MDR (basically the potential set-up for 98L): the 1898 and 1893 hurricanes. It seems to indicate that a US landfall from such a set-up is extremely rare so for now I'm not worrying about that aspect too much (yet). The entire list, in chronological order:
Year / Name / Month / Landfalling state / Wind speed @LF (kt) / Pressure @LF (mb) / Cat@LF
2016 / Matthew / Oct / South Carolina / 75 / 967 / 1
2012 / Sandy* / Oct / New Jersey / 70 / 945 / 1
1966 / Inez / Oct / Florida / 75 / 984 / 1
1954 / Hazel / Oct / South and North Carolina / 115 / 938 / 4
1941 / Unnamed / Oct / Florida / 85 / ?? / 2
1935 / Unnamed / Nov / Florida / 85 / 973 / 2
1913 / Unnamed / Oct / South Carolina / 65 / ?? / 1
1898 / Unnamed / Oct / Georgia / 115 / 938 / 4
1893 / Unnamed / Oct / South Carolina / 105 / 955 / 3
1869 / Unnamed / Oct / Maine / 90 / ?? / 2
* = extra-tropical at landfall
Here are the two 'worst-case scenarios' (1898 and 1893):
1898 Georgia hurricane
https://i.imgur.com/y6QSMcJ.png
1893 Great Charleston Hurricane
https://i.imgur.com/vQ7I94i.png
Shouldn’t hurricane Kate from 1985 be on this list?
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floridasun
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
we know better with models by weekend into next week were this going too far east to know now
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skyline385
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Bocadude85 wrote:kevin wrote:Just for a historical reference / statistics, only 10 hurricanes made landfall in the US while originating from the east (I took passing east of Cuba as 'east', Matthew is kind of an edge case) in October, November or December since 1851. Of this subset only 2 passed north of the Caribbean while forming roughly in the MDR (basically the potential set-up for 98L): the 1898 and 1893 hurricanes. It seems to indicate that a US landfall from such a set-up is extremely rare so for now I'm not worrying about that aspect too much (yet). The entire list, in chronological order:
Year / Name / Month / Landfalling state / Wind speed @LF (kt) / Pressure @LF (mb) / Cat@LF
2016 / Matthew / Oct / South Carolina / 75 / 967 / 1
2012 / Sandy* / Oct / New Jersey / 70 / 945 / 1
1966 / Inez / Oct / Florida / 75 / 984 / 1
1954 / Hazel / Oct / South and North Carolina / 115 / 938 / 4
1941 / Unnamed / Oct / Florida / 85 / ?? / 2
1935 / Unnamed / Nov / Florida / 85 / 973 / 2
1913 / Unnamed / Oct / South Carolina / 65 / ?? / 1
1898 / Unnamed / Oct / Georgia / 115 / 938 / 4
1893 / Unnamed / Oct / South Carolina / 105 / 955 / 3
1869 / Unnamed / Oct / Maine / 90 / ?? / 2
* = extra-tropical at landfall
Here are the two 'worst-case scenarios' (1898 and 1893):
1898 Georgia hurricane
https://i.imgur.com/y6QSMcJ.png
1893 Great Charleston Hurricane
https://i.imgur.com/vQ7I94i.png
Shouldn’t hurricane Kate from 1985 be on this list?
He forgot Irma of all storms too lol, probably the worst case of a Cape Verde system
EDIT: I see he had October, November or December only, however we still have 10 days left in September...
Last edited by skyline385 on Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
skyline385 wrote:Bocadude85 wrote:kevin wrote:Just for a historical reference / statistics, only 10 hurricanes made landfall in the US while originating from the east (I took passing east of Cuba as 'east', Matthew is kind of an edge case) in October, November or December since 1851. Of this subset only 2 passed north of the Caribbean while forming roughly in the MDR (basically the potential set-up for 98L): the 1898 and 1893 hurricanes. It seems to indicate that a US landfall from such a set-up is extremely rare so for now I'm not worrying about that aspect too much (yet). The entire list, in chronological order:
Year / Name / Month / Landfalling state / Wind speed @LF (kt) / Pressure @LF (mb) / Cat@LF
2016 / Matthew / Oct / South Carolina / 75 / 967 / 1
2012 / Sandy* / Oct / New Jersey / 70 / 945 / 1
1966 / Inez / Oct / Florida / 75 / 984 / 1
1954 / Hazel / Oct / South and North Carolina / 115 / 938 / 4
1941 / Unnamed / Oct / Florida / 85 / ?? / 2
1935 / Unnamed / Nov / Florida / 85 / 973 / 2
1913 / Unnamed / Oct / South Carolina / 65 / ?? / 1
1898 / Unnamed / Oct / Georgia / 115 / 938 / 4
1893 / Unnamed / Oct / South Carolina / 105 / 955 / 3
1869 / Unnamed / Oct / Maine / 90 / ?? / 2
* = extra-tropical at landfall
Here are the two 'worst-case scenarios' (1898 and 1893):
1898 Georgia hurricane
https://i.imgur.com/y6QSMcJ.png
1893 Great Charleston Hurricane
https://i.imgur.com/vQ7I94i.png
Shouldn’t hurricane Kate from 1985 be on this list?
He forgot Irma of all storms too lol, probably the worst case of a Cape Verde system
"in October, November or December since 1851"
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ElectricStorm
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
0z GFS looking fairly similar to 18z so far
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B.S Meteorology, University of Oklahoma '25
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Weather Dude wrote:0z GFS looking fairly similar to 18z so far
About 3 degrees further west though, in fact the westernmost of recent runs. You would need to go back to 06z to find anything close.
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ElectricStorm
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
The remnants of Peter look like they're getting out of there much quicker than last run. I'm expecting 98L to get further west this run than the 18z
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B.S Meteorology, University of Oklahoma '25
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