ATL: PETER - Remnants - Discussion

[Nimbus]

The upper level low that cut off looks like it is trying to develop a warm core with Peters low level circulation.
That would be interesting but no model support?

[Sciencerocks]

[aspen]

It’s possible that Peter gets stuck in the mid-latitudes starting this weekend, which could lead to some amount of re-intensification if over conditions are favorable. A trapped Peter would also have track implications for 98L/Sam, because the models that do trap it keep it around for 7-10 days, and Sam will be approaching 55-60W by then.

[Nimbus]

It’s possible that Peter gets stuck in the mid-latitudes starting this weekend, which could lead to some amount of re-intensification if over conditions are favorable. A trapped Peter would also have track implications for 98L/Sam, because the models that do trap it keep it around for 7-10 days, and Sam will be approaching 55-60W by then.

Peter might follow the HMON track if it keeps surviving the shear with these comeback convection bursts.
The upper level low is starting to weaken but its a tough call without some soundings.
HMON doesn't show much steering in this scenario near the Bahamas.

[Teban54]

That's quite an epic comeback, at least for now.

[JetFuel_SE]

P E T E

You know his name is Peter, and that he hates being called "P E T E"
Please show some respect.

[tolakram]

P E T E

You know his name is Peter, and that he hates being called "P E T E"
Please show some respect.

Not until he stops running around without clothes.

[JetFuel_SE]

P E T E

You know his name is Peter, and that he hates being called "P E T E"
Please show some respect.

Not until he stops running around without clothes.

That is discrimination against him on the basis that he is a nudist, don't sink that low, please.

[Sciencerocks]

[Iceresistance]

That's quite an epic comeback, at least for now.
https://i.ibb.co/xXQzjL4/goes16-vis-swi ... 201305.gif

Peter's will to stay classified as a Tropical Cyclone is very strong!

[Sciencerocks]

[IsabelaWeather]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/6788/rWf1qM.gif

Is that the low center moving SW or is it under the convection? Hard to tell...

[Sciencerocks]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/6788/rWf1qM.gif

Is that the low center moving SW or is it under the convection? Hard to tell...

Looks to be southwest to me

[MarioProtVI]

Yeah this thing just killed itself as recon confirmed a quickly elongating and likely not even closed anymore LLC. Should issue a TCU declaring it a trough.

[Teban54]

Yeah this thing just killed itself as recon confirmed a quickly elongating and likely not even closed anymore LLC. Should issue a TCU declaring it a trough.

Looks like Peter and Rose both poofed at roughly the same time. At least they had an impressive day given less than favorable conditions.

[Nimbus]

Peter tracked west under the shear of the persistent ULL as a weak system rather than being steered NW as a deeper storm. What was the lowest surface pressure discovered by recon 1009?

[wxman57]

Peter is on life support this morning. Recon finding a poorly-organized 25 kt low that is far-removed from any convection. No model support for regeneration.

[aspen]

"Mr. Stark, I don't feel so good..."

[crownweather]

Peter is on life support this morning. Recon finding a poorly-organized 25 kt low that is far-removed from any convection. No model support for regeneration.

http://wxman57.com/images/itsdeadjim.jpg

Peter is petering out.

[wxman57]

I'll be interested to read the NHC's discussion on why Peter is still classified a TS when recon couldn't even find a 30kt wind.

Turns out they just can't believe it's not a TS, even though the plane can't find any evidence. They say they are being generous in keeping it a TS because the plane only sampled the area 150 miles NE of the center and not the ones out to 300-400 miles out. I say, go with the evidence and not generosity. Their marine forecast has 35kt winds 130nm NE of the center, where the plane found 25kt winds. Doesn't make any sense.