ATL: SAM - Models

[skyline385]

0z GFS looking fairly similar to 18z so far

About 3 degrees further west though, in fact the westernmost of recent runs. You would need to go back to 06z to find anything close.

yea, much further westwards than the 12Z run where it got uncomfortably close to CONUS. However, it seems to be already getting pulled up North. Lets see if the ridge blocks it again...

[grapealcoholic]

0z GFS looking fairly similar to 18z so far

Looks much further west?

[Teban54]

FWIW, 0z ICON is a lot stronger than previous runs and gets it down to 969 mb.

Question: Generally speaking, how useful are the MSLP forecasts from global models? I remember people saying they're typically too high because of resolution issues, but they verified quite well for Larry.

[skyline385]

FWIW, 0z ICON is a lot stronger than previous runs and gets it down to 969 mb.

Question: Generally speaking, how useful are the MSLP forecasts from global models? I remember people saying they're typically too high because of resolution issues, but they verified quite well for Larry.

Larry was an annular system with a huge eye. Global models verify well when the system has a large eye, but struggle against RI'ing storms with small eye including mesovortice features. This is where the Hurricane models excel at...

[ElectricStorm]

I do agree with the GFS that this gets strong in the short term. I think we'll be looking at a strong MDR hurricane. I also agree with the 0z GFS that Peter won't stick around like it did on the 18z

[skyline385]

Ridge developing again at 192 hours as 98L seems to be slowing down, getting blocked again...

[sma10]

UK quite a bit further SW than GFS. Indicates a possible threat to NE Leewards, as it crosses 50W still south of 15N on a relatively W to WNW motion.

Visually, UK at 144h looks much more like CMC than GFS

[ElectricStorm]

There's the turn, let's see how close it gets

[skyline385]

There it is...

[grapealcoholic]

This run is gonna hit new england lol

[sma10]

There it is...

https://i.imgur.com/klb8wwE.png

GFS though is really on its own. UK, CMC and Euro suggest much closer approach to NE Caribbean, while GFS is way, way further NE

[Teban54]

There it is...

https://i.imgur.com/klb8wwE.png

GFS though is really on its own. UK, CMC and Euro suggest much closer approach to NE Caribbean, while GFS is way, way further NE

Thanks for reminding me that CMC exists lol. Just checked, at 150 hrs it's considerably further west and a bit south of past runs. Looks like models have been trending towards faster motion in the short term.

[blp]

There it is...

https://i.imgur.com/klb8wwE.png

GFS though is really on its own. UK, CMC and Euro suggest much closer approach to NE Caribbean, while GFS is way, way further NE

It should start coming closer to the other models. That ridge looks stout. Ensembles much more west in line with those others.

[ElectricStorm]

Might slam into Bermuda on this run

[sma10]

There it is...

https://i.imgur.com/klb8wwE.png

GFS though is really on its own. UK, CMC and Euro suggest much closer approach to NE Caribbean, while GFS is way, way further NE

It is coming closer to the other models now. That ridge looks stout.

Yes, perhaps in future runs the GFS will continue to shift further SW. From where it's located at 240hrs there's no threat to the CONUS. But marry that ridge to the UK/Euro positioning, you have another story.

[blp]

Purple on the ridge building in.

[Teban54]

CMC has 98L passing just 0.3N north of the islands at 980 mb, closer than Jose did. Brings upper end TS winds to Barbuda. Still intensifying as it moves away from the islands.

[grapealcoholic]

Looks like the next wave might complicate things as well

[Teban54]

Lol, GFS basically stalls 98L from 258 hrs through 318 hrs at the same intensity. Looks like a front tries to pick it up but fails.

Update: Moving west slowly again, gets dangerously close to Bermuda but ultimately misses it just to the east while recurving. Keep in mind this is fantasy range.

[Teban54]

Hopefully everyone knows this already, but the terrible run-to-run consistency with both 98L's track and the steering setup clearly shows how much one should trust the GFS extended range forecasts, and this is before considering its bias of underdoing ridges: