ATL: SAM - Models

[aspen]

It’s crazy that, once again, Odette will have an impact on the track of a forming tropical cyclone that could get close to the Caribbean islands. It may not be a TC anymore but it still wants to be involved.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1440256174431997956

[kevin]

06z GFS is strong, but clearly OTS this run (also east of Bermuda).

[tolakram]

Here's the 0Z euro 250mb chart at 240 hours. Looks to me like Florida and the gulf still out of play, or at least any storm will be significantly ripped up if it moves through that shear zone.

[SconnieCane]

I know almost everyone is already aware of this, but just a reminder: we're still roughly 240 hours away from any potential impact to the Caribbean and even further away from any possible CONUS impact. So whatever happens, expect large windshield wiping to occur on the models and people going either 'oh no we're doomed' or 'looks like we have a definite fish' every time a model cycle trends one way or the other. Independent of the outcome, it looks like we could have a few long model watching days ahead of us.

This is what we're here for in September. Took a little longer than we thought but

[Blown Away]

00z EURO

[Blown Away]

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1440256174431997956?

It will be early October if 98L makes it past 75W, very rare for W moving storm from the MDR to move near/through the NE Caribbean from the MDR and make it past 75W and not find a trough to recurve it. We shall see, but I lean heavily on climatology with 98L.

[Cat5James]

Here's the 0Z euro 250mb chart at 240 hours. Looks to me like Florida and the gulf still out of play, or at least any storm will be significantly ripped up if it moves through that shear zone.

https://i.imgur.com/ll6VNWT.png

You can’t look at the Euro/CMC and say anyone is “out of play”…. High pressure is building back in to the north on both of those runs

[tolakram]

Here's the 0Z euro 250mb chart at 240 hours. Looks to me like Florida and the gulf still out of play, or at least any storm will be significantly ripped up if it moves through that shear zone.

https://i.imgur.com/ll6VNWT.png

You can’t look at the Euro/CMC and say anyone is “out of play”…. High pressure is building back in to the north on both of those runs

Sure, fair enough, I was careless with the wording, and this run is different from the previous 0Z run. What I intended to say is not that Florida is out of play but the Euro is showing conditions that would rip any storm up. At 240 hours all this map represents is most likely what won't happen. This is different, in my opinion, from saying Florida is safe, it most certainly is not, but reading it back it looks like I'm calling the all clear.

[kevin]

06z HMON and HWRF

HWRF


HMON

[SconnieCane]

With decent support from both the globals and hurricane models, looks like a pretty good chance this storm at least becomes fairly strong unlike the struggle-bus Peter and Rose and the barely-classifiable Odette.

[kevin]

06z HWRF track from 0 - 120 hours.

[aspen]

06z HWRF finishes with a 958mb Cat 3, its strongest run yet.



It's under an excellent UL anticyclone too. If this verifies, Sam will be on its way to a Cat 4 late this weekend.

[jlauderdal]

Here's the 0Z euro 250mb chart at 240 hours. Looks to me like Florida and the gulf still out of play, or at least any storm will be significantly ripped up if it moves through that shear zone.

https://i.imgur.com/ll6VNWT.png

You can’t look at the Euro/CMC and say anyone is “out of play”…. High pressure is building back in to the north on both of those runs

Sure, fair enough, I was careless with the wording, and this run is different from the previous 0Z run. What I intended to say is not that Florida is out of play but the Euro is showing conditions that would rip any storm up. At 240 hours all this map represents is most likely what won't happen. This is different, in my opinion, from saying Florida is safe, it most certainly is not, but reading it back it looks like I'm calling the all clear.

A few cranky Floridians due to the lack of activity. Lets see how the ridge looks on the models later today, trend is your friend.

[ronjon]

Whats a little more ominous is the position of the 500 mb low at 10 days. GFS has its center in western Ky and Euro in central Ohio. Any retrograde west or positioning west around the Miss River might put a larger chunk of the Conus at play for a landfall, assuming ridging builds down strong from new england southward. Of course, this is all 10 days out and we know how uncertain these forecasts can be.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

98L's current appearance would more support the ECMWF than the GFS medium range solution, IMHO.

[AutoPenalti]

Okay the 0z Euro was clearly something I did not expect.

[KirbyDude25]

Okay the 0z Euro was clearly something I did not expect.

It looks like it generates a second storm at around 7 days out (along with intensifying 98L to ~970 mbar). Of course, that's a long-range forecast and pretty unreliable, but it's definitely interesting.

[skyline385]

0Z EURO is pretty bad, especially if the ridge continues to build. Could even send it into the Gulf...

[SoupBone]

Here's the 0Z euro 250mb chart at 240 hours. Looks to me like Florida and the gulf still out of play, or at least any storm will be significantly ripped up if it moves through that shear zone.

https://i.imgur.com/ll6VNWT.png

You can’t look at the Euro/CMC and say anyone is “out of play”…. High pressure is building back in to the north on both of those runs

He didn't say anything wrong, he's discussing one run. Maybe you should be more careful and ask questions rather than accuse. And he's right about that run, it does take Florida and the Gulf out of play with crazy shear over the entire area.