ATL: SAM - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#221 Postby grapealcoholic » Tue Sep 21, 2021 12:16 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#222 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 21, 2021 12:19 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#223 Postby chris_fit » Tue Sep 21, 2021 12:25 pm




That's the 00Z ECMF Ens Run - not 12Z
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#224 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 21, 2021 12:28 pm

chris_fit wrote:



That's the 00Z ECMF Ens Run - not 12Z

Yeah I noticed that after posting, whoops. :oops:
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#225 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 21, 2021 12:29 pm

Image
IF** the 12z GFS is correct in the long range, high pressure will be dominating over the US for many days!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#226 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 21, 2021 12:31 pm

Anyone has the 12z UKMET?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#227 Postby Kohlecane » Tue Sep 21, 2021 12:35 pm

chris_fit wrote:



That's the 00Z ECMF Ens Run - not 12Z

Still a bit fuzzy :lol: seems that a few of those ens are similar to Gefs recent run, but I do notice slight hesitation on those member so far IMO
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#228 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 21, 2021 12:49 pm

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ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#229 Postby Born2run0830 » Tue Sep 21, 2021 12:52 pm

.
Last edited by Born2run0830 on Tue Sep 21, 2021 12:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#230 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 21, 2021 12:53 pm

Remove please.
Last edited by AutoPenalti on Tue Sep 21, 2021 12:55 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#231 Postby SconnieCane » Tue Sep 21, 2021 12:54 pm

Born2run0830 wrote:I have what’s probably a dumb question- does the location of warmer waters play a role in track? Like are storms more likely to seek them out and therefore take a route that’s more likely to go through them, or does that not play a role?


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As far as I know, tropical cyclones do not have any sort of "heat seeking" capability. They can seem at times to try to avoid land to keep themselves alive, but I as I understand it that has to do with frictional effects.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#232 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 21, 2021 12:55 pm

delaying development.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#233 Postby grapealcoholic » Tue Sep 21, 2021 12:55 pm

Stronger trough = more likely to hit CONUS

 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1440372912691691532


Last edited by grapealcoholic on Tue Sep 21, 2021 12:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#234 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 21, 2021 12:55 pm

Kohlecane wrote:
chris_fit wrote:



That's the 00Z ECMF Ens Run - not 12Z

Still a bit fuzzy :lol: seems that a few of those ens are similar to Gefs recent run, but I do notice slight hesitation on those member so far IMO
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/FUZZY-ENS.jpg

That's yesterdays solution.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#235 Postby otowntiger » Tue Sep 21, 2021 12:56 pm

Does that sound like the Euro could trend toward the GFS?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#236 Postby aspen » Tue Sep 21, 2021 1:00 pm

HWRF shows an anemic wave for the next day but still has 98L become TS Sam by late Thursday. The HMON is slower with development and has a TS by midday Friday.

CMC is a very close scare for the Leeward Islands.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#237 Postby kevin » Tue Sep 21, 2021 1:06 pm

tolakram wrote:delaying development.

https://i.imgur.com/XD8Wesv.png


Unless it doesn't develop at all, later development would be bad for possible Caribbean/CONUS impacts since it would less time to recurve right?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#238 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 21, 2021 1:07 pm

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#239 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 21, 2021 1:09 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#240 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 21, 2021 1:11 pm

I don't think this develops anytime soon. Models once again are failing to see adverse conditions until just a few runs before development, then start pushing that development back.
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