ATL: SAM - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#381 Postby aspen » Tue Sep 21, 2021 7:11 pm

skyline385 wrote:
aspen wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
Uhm isnt the HWRF-P (afaik P is Parent and not Parallel) the same as HWRF?

Due to its wider field of view, it likes to get its focus stuck on whatever low pressure area happens to be even a tiny bit deeper than the disturbance it’s supposed to be focusing on. There’s been this low over central Africa that the HWRF-P has gotten stuck on for many early runs of Peter and 98L.


So its a different run of the HWRF then?

No it shows the same storm evolution and environmental factors as the HWRF; it just has a wider FOV.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#382 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 21, 2021 7:25 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#383 Postby Spacecoast » Tue Sep 21, 2021 7:25 pm

18z GEFS:
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#384 Postby Ubuntwo » Tue Sep 21, 2021 7:26 pm

Comparing the GFS and Euro solutions. The Euro embeds ex-Odette in the mid latitudes and moves it out quickly. The GFS had ridging building back in over and above a subtropical Odette, shunting southward and interacting it with Rose. This whole process weakens the ridging above 98 allowing the system to gain more latitude.

Later in the forecast period, the Euro has a weaker and flatter trough moving across the US. Not only is the trough more amplified on the GFS, but its passage leads to an upper-level low cutting off in the southwest Atlantic (which eventually forms another TC). Lots to watch, most will change...
Last edited by Ubuntwo on Tue Sep 21, 2021 7:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#385 Postby aspen » Tue Sep 21, 2021 7:34 pm

18z HWRF-P is garbage too. The 10m wind field and simulated IR structure are very low-res and “smooth”; this happens to systems that are not the main focus of the model run. We’ll have to wait until 00z for a good HWRF run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#386 Postby floridasun » Tue Sep 21, 2021 7:38 pm

GFS vs Euro we will know by sunday the islands will be watching i bet by sunday
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#387 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Sep 21, 2021 7:49 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:That GFS run is whack. How does a storm manage to recurve right into a ridge? There's no obvious weakness that I see - just a stout ridge.

Image

EDIT: Ninja'd by Wxtwitter
The gfs has done this before, toss the run
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#388 Postby skyline385 » Tue Sep 21, 2021 7:51 pm



Thats from the 12Z run though?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#389 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 21, 2021 7:53 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#390 Postby Fancy1001 » Tue Sep 21, 2021 7:54 pm

HMON Is a little weaker but further south west.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#391 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 21, 2021 7:58 pm



The GFS is not plowing it into the ridge. That ridge is weakening due to the mid-upper low across the Great Lakes:

Image

All of the GFS ensembles are recurving but are closer to the islands:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#392 Postby floridasun » Tue Sep 21, 2021 8:07 pm

so who going win the gfs or Euro this runs going drive us cazy next few days so all about high building west or weakness left by peter
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#393 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 21, 2021 8:16 pm

That’s not a ridge puncher, it’s the low the forms out of nowhere thanks to the stronger trough. The overall SW correction is concerning though.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#394 Postby Keldeo1997 » Tue Sep 21, 2021 8:21 pm

Image

18Z EPS is even more West.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#395 Postby LarryWx » Tue Sep 21, 2021 8:23 pm

The subtle ominous trend continues with the 18Z EPS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#396 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 21, 2021 8:27 pm

LarryWx wrote:The subtle ominous trend continues with the 18Z EPS.


Yep…

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#397 Postby sma10 » Tue Sep 21, 2021 8:29 pm

LarryWx wrote:The subtle ominous trend continues with the 18Z EPS.


Larry, you are the "go-to guru" on this type of stuff: the Euro has 98L tracking W to WNW on 10/1 off the N coast of Hispaniola towards the Bahamas. When is the last time you can remember an October storm in that region tracking westerly? Would we have to go all the way back to Inez? Or maybe Kate?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#398 Postby skyline385 » Tue Sep 21, 2021 8:42 pm

Looks like almost all members shifted west for the 18Z

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#399 Postby LarryWx » Tue Sep 21, 2021 8:54 pm

sma10 wrote:
LarryWx wrote:The subtle ominous trend continues with the 18Z EPS.


Larry, you are the "go-to guru" on this type of stuff: the Euro has 98L tracking W to WNW on 10/1 off the N coast of Hispaniola towards the Bahamas. When is the last time you can remember an October storm in that region tracking westerly? Would we have to go all the way back to Inez? Or maybe Kate?


Klaus 1990:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1990.png
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#400 Postby sma10 » Tue Sep 21, 2021 9:06 pm

LarryWx wrote:
sma10 wrote:
LarryWx wrote:The subtle ominous trend continues with the 18Z EPS.


Larry, you are the "go-to guru" on this type of stuff: the Euro has 98L tracking W to WNW on 10/1 off the N coast of Hispaniola towards the Bahamas. When is the last time you can remember an October storm in that region tracking westerly? Would we have to go all the way back to Inez? Or maybe Kate?


Klaus 1990:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1990.png


Thank you, wow 31 years. And I doubt this one is just going to fizzle away like Klaus
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