ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

[abajan]

Are they expecting its forward speed to decelerate?
Compare the position of the western edge of the "cone" (for want of a better term) in the previous TWO versus the latest one:

https://i.imgur.com/hwfV9oN.png

https://i.imgur.com/lBIbpGe.png

I think they shorten the cone when it’s more likely to develop in the short term. The edge of the cone is probably the latest point it will develop by.

Yes, that sounds about right.

[Homie J]

Seeing evidence of a closed circulation in both Windy and Ventusky (most apparent in the latter). Windy shows that the southern portion of the circulation is quite slow.

Those are just models, not necessarily what is happening. Don’t use those to see if a center is closed or not.

[aspen]

The current model consensus track — one that crosses 20N around 57-59W — will have 98L/Sam safely miss the islands while crossing over 29.0-29.5C SSTs with OHC approaching 80-100 units. It’s low latitude, possibility to recurve just before the Lesser Antilles, and good intensity potential suggests this could be a late-season version of Jose (without the weird loops and stalling, though).

MPIs around 55-60W and 17-20N are around 140-150 kt and 925-910mb.

[abajan]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/0mm1Q7ADoe8[/youtube]

[WiscoWx02]

Would be willing to bet the 00z Euro is the last run to depict a hurricane landfall in the Antilles. No other models really show this and have been drifting north and east with each run except the Canadian but how accurate is that model really? Definitely still need to keep an eye on it for now but IMO it's more likely to be a fish storm than anything else. Development is pretty certain at this point given the most recent satellite trends so no longer think the models are wrong in that regard.

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1440669452614262790



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1440673192352174095



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1440668658968133650

[kevin]

I can see why 98L is doing so well right now and will probably develop sooner than most models indicate. It's in pretty much perfect conditions: low shear and cat 5 MPIs. And it will probably remain in such conditions for quite some time.

[Iceresistance]

I can see why 98L is doing so well right now and will probably develop sooner than most models indicate. It's in pretty much perfect conditions: low shear and cat 5 MPIs. And it will probably remain in such conditions for quite some time.

https://i.imgur.com/uCJMBcG.gif

https://i.imgur.com/ewZBwJ2.png

The only inhibitor that I can see is the Dry Air, but even then, I don't see anything that could limit this from becoming a powerful hurricane, the only limiting factor to this is the SSTs . . .

[Blown Away]

[ScottNAtlanta]

The GFS seems to be basing its recurve on the remnants of Peter surviving to be absorbed by a non-tropical low off the Mid Atlantic coast that will then create a weakness in the high. I'm not thinking that is going to verify because Peter is just about dissipated as of right now.

[kevin]

The GFS seems to be basing its recurve on the remnants of Peter surviving to be absorbed by a non-tropical low off the Mid Atlantic coast that will then create a weakness in the high. I'm not thinking that is going to verify because Peter is just about dissipated as of right now.

Yes, I'm inclined to agree with that. That would mean that GFS is overdoing the recurve and the Euro could be closer to reality. However, pretty much all models (except the Euro) are trending east this morning so who knows. Perhaps reality will be a blend, so not west enough as Euro to threaten the Caribbean and/or Bahamas, but also not east enough to completely recurve. Such a blend could put for example Bermuda at risk. But at this stage it's just a wait-and-see. I remember in the past how bad models can be for long-term track with disturbances on the open ocean due to the lack of data points in the region. I can imagine that we could see significant shifts in models one way or the other once atmospheric sampling is performed by recon or once 98L enters waters with more available data for models to work with.

[Category5Kaiju]

Whatever happens, future 98L is likely going to have a fun time with this:

[Hurrilurker]

How is this not already at least a TD? I don't get it.

[kevin]

How is this not already at least a TD? I don't get it.

It'll probably be designated as one very soon.

[aspen]

The 2pm TWO will probably use the “if these trends continue, advisories will be initiated later this afternoon/evening” wording. It’s so close now that I bet it gets designated at 5pm.

[Sciencerocks]

[Iceresistance]

https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data_current/5km/v3.1_op/daily/png/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_nwel_current.png

Whatever happens, future 98L is likely going to have a fun time with this:

Did you mean Future Sam?

[SconnieCane]

https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data_current/5km/v3.1_op/daily/png/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_nwel_current.png

Whatever happens, future 98L is likely going to have a fun time with this:

Did you mean Future Sam?

Is that patch of neutral/slightly negative anomalies Larry's wake? Looks like this should miss that to the south. It needs to be remembered though that in that area of the Atlantic, 0.5 degree C below normal in September is still more than adequate to support a solid tropical cyclone.

[grapealcoholic]

You can see some low-level spin around 33W 9N

[Iceresistance]

https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data_current/5km/v3.1_op/daily/png/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_nwel_current.png

Whatever happens, future 98L is likely going to have a fun time with this:

Did you mean Future Sam?

Is that patch of neutral/slightly negative anomalies Larry's wake? Looks like this should miss that to the south. It needs to be remember though that in that area of the Atlantic, 0.5-1 degree C below normal in September is still more than adequate to support a solid tropical cyclone.

Yes, it's Larry's cold water Trail . . .