ATL: ROSE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ROSE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#81 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Sep 20, 2021 4:01 pm

Oh come on! Not again! :lol: :lol: :lol:

The long-term future of Rose doesn't look golden
either due to further increasing shear from an incoming upper- level
trough. The new forecast is just a shade lower than the previous
one, near the model consensus, with Rose likely sinking to a
depression in a few days and degenerating to a remnant low by day 5.
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Re: ATL: ROSE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#82 Postby Hammy » Mon Sep 20, 2021 4:03 pm

Teban54 wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:I'm gonna have to disagree with the NHC on this one, I think this is stronger than 35kts. ADT is up to 53kts and while that might be a bit too high, it's probably closer to reality than 35kts is. This just doesn't seem like a minimal TS to me.

ASCAT earlier today seemed to show the LLC at the SE tip of the convection with no 35kt wind barbs. Hard to believe given the satellite presentation, but indeed that's a pretty convincing reason for going lower than 53 kts. I do think 35 kts is too low though.


LLC is just NE of the convection and only the outer circulation was caught. Highest winds are under the convection.

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Re: ATL: ROSE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#83 Postby Landy » Mon Sep 20, 2021 7:34 pm

 https://twitter.com/iembot_nhc/status/1440111563310972929


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Re: ATL: ROSE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#84 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:18 pm

Rose's Intensity is more realistic now! 45 knots per NHC
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Re: ATL: ROSE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#85 Postby Teban54 » Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:23 pm


This confirms so many people's hypothesis that Rose is closer to 45 kt than 35 kt.
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Re: ATL: ROSE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#86 Postby AnnularCane » Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:33 pm

Feels like she's been vindicated or something. 8-)
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Re: ATL: ROSE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#87 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 20, 2021 9:03 pm

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Re: ATL: ROSE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#88 Postby Hammy » Mon Sep 20, 2021 9:17 pm

Gotta wonder if this means it was 60mph earlier in the day when the circulation and convection was better organized, if it's 50 after appearing to weaken some, if they're using ASCAT data.
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Re: ATL: ROSE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#89 Postby MarioProtVI » Mon Sep 20, 2021 11:56 pm

Hammy wrote:Gotta wonder if this means it was 60mph earlier in the day when the circulation and convection was better organized, if it's 50 after appearing to weaken some, if they're using ASCAT data.

Definitely was given now the LLC just ejected NW and split from the MLC.
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Re: ATL: ROSE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#90 Postby abajan » Tue Sep 21, 2021 12:52 am

It's only just occurred to me that we have Peter and Rose, and there's a former legendary baseball player named Pete Rose. :P

It's late. Think I'll go to bed now.
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Re: ATL: ROSE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#91 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Sep 21, 2021 10:22 am

Good grief! :lol: :lol: :lol:

...ROSE GOING THROUGH A ROUGH PATCH... ...BARELY A TROPICAL STORM....


The storm's environment is no bed of roses during the next several
days, with persistent moderate westerly or northwesterly shear,
plentiful dry air aloft and only marginally warm waters. Almost
all of the guidance shows Rose decaying into a tropical depression
this evening, and the new forecast is decreased from the previous
one, especially in the near term. A continuation of this hostile
environment should cause further weakening, and Rose is expected to
be pushing up daisies in 3 days or less, degenerating into a weak
remnant low and dissipating by the end of the forecast.
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Re: ATL: ROSE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#92 Postby AnnularCane » Tue Sep 21, 2021 11:35 am

Rose is certainly bringing out Blake's creativity if nothing else. :lol:
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Re: ATL: ROSE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#93 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Sep 21, 2021 2:57 pm

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Re: ATL: ROSE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#94 Postby AnnularCane » Tue Sep 21, 2021 3:47 pm

That is a stunningly beautiful...naked swirl. :oops:
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"But it never rained rain. It never snowed snow. And it never blew just wind. It rained things like soup and juice. It snowed mashed potatoes and green peas. And sometimes the wind blew in storms of hamburgers." -- Judi Barrett, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
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Re: ATL: ROSE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#95 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Sep 21, 2021 9:03 pm

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Re: ATL: ROSE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#96 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 21, 2021 10:00 pm

...ROSE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION....


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 37.9W
ABOUT 1020 MI...1645 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
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Re: ATL: ROSE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#97 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Sep 22, 2021 10:10 am

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Re: ATL: ROSE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#98 Postby Teban54 » Wed Sep 22, 2021 10:17 am


One last petal there.
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Re: ATL: ROSE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#99 Postby AnnularCane » Wed Sep 22, 2021 10:58 am

Teban54 wrote:

One last petal there.


Rosebud. :cry:
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Re: ATL: ROSE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#100 Postby SconnieCane » Wed Sep 22, 2021 11:58 am

AnnularCane wrote:
Teban54 wrote:

One last petal there.


Rosebud. :cry:


I really hope NHC uses that for the final advisory. :lol:
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