ATL: SAM - Models

[blp]

CMC is splitting the difference which is a good place to be with this uncertainty. Seems resonable.

[Teban54]

Wow look at those low dew points into South Florida, same trough that could turn future Sam northward. It is a powerful trough to say the least. Won’t be feeling like hurricane weather here if the GFS is right that is fore sure

https://i.postimg.cc/zXDtG9Jc/gfs-Td2m-seus-fh126-174.gif

I remember people always post a GFS run like this in September. Few of them actually verified.

[gatorcane]

CMC is splitting the difference which is a good place to be with this uncertainty. Seems resonable.

Close call for the islands:

[Geauxtigers_2019_9]

Any reason to believe with the westward trend that this storm can get into the GOM or is that off the table?

[sma10]

Wow look at those low dew points into South Florida, same trough that could turn future Sam northward. It is a powerful trough to say the least. Won’t be feeling like hurricane weather here if the GFS is right that is fore sure

https://i.postimg.cc/zXDtG9Jc/gfs-Td2m-seus-fh126-174.gif

In what world does the southern tip of Florida get 60 degree dewpoint on Sep 29? Dubious, to say the least

Is it that extreme though? The average dew point for SFL in summer is 65-75. 60 isn't too far fetched if a strong trough hits the state?

I suppose anything is possible. The last time MIA reported a Sept dewpoint of 60 was 2011

[chris_fit]

12Z GFS Ens - Safely away from the US

[Spacecoast]

0z ECMF....after 192 hrs, Operational deviates significantly from the ensemble mean

[grapealcoholic]

HWRF: major hurricane in 72 hours

[Teban54]

0z ECMF....after 192 hrs, Operational deviates significantly from the ensemble mean
https://i.ibb.co/Dk2HCTZ/ecmbs.jpg

There seems to be some kind of a bifurcation point at ~96 hours. Half the members take on a slightly more NW heading, which eventually miss the islands by quite some margin and recurve at 60-65W.

The other half continue on a WNW track like the operational and the CMC, with no recurves until at least 70W. May still recurve and miss the CONUS, but not until it gets dangerously close. This scenario will give the islands a hit or at least a very close miss (Earl 2010 or Jose 2017 are the best analogs).

Now let's see whether that changes on the 12z Euro.

[jhpigott]

12z Euro op doubling down? Stronger and a little further SW thru 72 hours compared to 00z

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 92212&fh=0

[grapealcoholic]

Wow

[Iceresistance]

12z Euro trending South again . . .

[AutoPenalti]

I just want to see the differences at 500mb, this could start south of the equator for all I care.

[kevin]

The Euro to the other models after most of them trend or stay east:

[AutoPenalti]

Euro is slightly faster though and the low near Texas seems to be trending faster as well.

[sma10]

I just want to see the differences at 500mb, this could start south of the equator for all I care.

Yeah, and it seems the difference at 500mb becomes apparent at 120hr. Euro/CMC still shows some ridging while GFS pretty much evaporates any ridging.

[Hurricaneman]

I just want to see the differences at 500mb, this could start south of the equator for all I care.

Yeah, and it seems the difference at 500mb becomes apparent at 120hr. Euro/CMC still shows some ridging while GFS pretty much evaporates any ridging.

It’s the GFS bias of breaking down ridges

[sma10]

I just want to see the differences at 500mb, this could start south of the equator for all I care.

Yeah, and it seems the difference at 500mb becomes apparent at 120hr. Euro/CMC still shows some ridging while GFS pretty much evaporates any ridging.

It’s the GFS bias of breaking down ridges

We'll see tho. At 144hr, Euro now is a smidge North from yesterday run, in response to a deeper digging trough. Will have to see how progressive that trough is.

[aspen]

The HWRF now seems to be on the NE side of the model guidance. 98L is already around 17-18N by the end of the run (2+ degrees north of the HMON at the same time frame), and it might be going over Larry’s cold wake. This track will spare all land masses from hurricane conditions but potentially limit intensity and therefore ACE; an HMON-like track could allow for a stronger storm that’ll still miss the Lesser Antilles and Bermuda.

The HWRF is either on the SW extreme or the NE extreme with track, it seems.

[LarryWx]

12z Euro further N vs 0Z. Less ridging. Looking better for CONUS this run.