#189 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Sep 22, 2021 4:05 pm
Teban54 wrote:Recap on
history of peak intensity forecasts on first advisory, credits to kevin:
kevin wrote:ThetaE wrote:
I think the NHC is just getting more confident/better at determining storms that may quickly or rapidly intensify down the road. It's not like these sort of favorable scenarios for quick ramp-ups didn't happen historically, but prediction skills are definitely a lot better nowadays.
I did some more research and it turns out that there have actually been 3 more 95 kt first advisories. Here's an overview of all 80+ kt first advisories since the modern advisories started (or at least as far as they have been archived on the NHC website) since 1998. A big sidenote is that up until and including 2002 they only did 72hr advisories instead of 120hr. The lowest first advisory ever given to a system that eventually became a MH was to Joaquin in 2015, which was forecast to peak as a 30 kt TD.
Edit: in my initial post I excluded cat 1's due to the time constraint, but I just checked those as well and I found 3 more 95+ kt cases. 2012 Isaac and 2005 Philippe were also forecast at 95 kt. And even crazier, in 2010 Tomas was given the 100 kt forecast. That forecast busted with Tomas 'only' becoming a cat 2 so perhaps that's why they've been reluctant with giving a storm the big M on its first forecast.
100 kt2010 - Tomas
95 kt2021 - Ida
2020 - Iota
2019 - Lorenzo
2012 - Isaac
2010 - Danielle
2005 - Philippe
2004 - Karl
90 kt2021 - TD12
2017 - Jose
2016 - Matthew
2009 - Bill
2007 - Dean
85 kt2020 - Delta
2015 - Danny
2014 - Gonzalo
2011 - Katia
2010 - Earl
2010 - Igor
2005 - Wilma
80 kt2020 - Teddy
2019 - Jerry
2017 - Maria
2016 - Gaston
2012 - Leslie
2005 - Rita
TD18 now joins Tomas as the only TCs that were given an intensity forecast of 100 kt on first advisory. Those that were given 95 kt forecasts include infamous names like Ida, Iota and Lorenzo.
Now let's hope future Sam behaves exactly like the current model runs and miss the Lesser Antilles, Bermuda and CONUS. If not... this would be bad.
It's interesting, as Tomas only peaked as a Cat 2. Perhaps Sam will be the other way around....

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Unless explicitly stated, all info in my posts is based on my own opinions and observations. Tropical storms and hurricanes can be extremely dangerous. Do not think you can beat Mother Nature. Refer to an accredited weather research agency or meteorologist if you need to make serious decisions regarding an approaching storm.