ATL: SAM - Models

[Blown Away]

Despite it being further south, it appears that there is a clear exit. Trap door open.

Yes, still OTS likely, but that low much weaker than previous GFS runs.

[skyline385]

This GFS isn't looking good at all, it's not recurving at all this time. It just seems to keep jogging NW...

[grapealcoholic]

That shortwave might save new england on this run

[Hurricaneman]

It seems that the final outcome of future Sam is dependent on if a cutoff forms because if it doesn’t it’s going to possibly landfall somewhere

[blp]

The cut off low is so difficult to predict for the models it will be a few more days before we get a clear picture which way this is going.

[jlauderdal]

This GFS isn't looking good at all, it's not recurving at all this time. It just seems to keep jogging NW...

Relax, its one run of the gfs and its late september

[aspen]

That’s a very, very sharp turn just south of Bermuda. It also looks like Sam barfs out another low pressure area that goes into the Bahamas.

[Iceresistance]

That’s a very, very sharp turn just south of Bermuda. It also looks like Sam barfs out another low pressure area that goes into the Bahamas.

Bermuda was like "No Sam, you're not coming to me!"

[SouthFLTropics]

That’s a very, very sharp turn just south of Bermuda. It also looks like Sam barfs out another low pressure area that goes into the Bahamas.

Up, Up, and away with Sam... Victor, is that you I see rolling through the Bahamas and into the Florida East Coast???

[grapealcoholic]

Wonder if that vort bombs out in the gulf. There's some shear but not the worst conditions

[LarryWx]

That’s a very, very sharp turn just south of Bermuda. It also looks like Sam barfs out another low pressure area that goes into the Bahamas.

Up, Up, and away with Sam... Victor, is that you I see rolling through the Bahamas and into the Florida East Coast???

I hope he's not "son of Sam".

[skyline385]

0Z ICON ends at almost the same location as 18Z GFS, only very slightly north

[IcyTundra]

00Z GFS coming in a lot stronger.

[skyline385]

0z GFS RI'ing

[Teban54]

Ridge building back at 186 hrs on 0z GFS?

Edit: Nvm. The trough indeed doesn't deep as far south at 186 hrs compared to previous runs, but south enough to continue on a recurve track. Hope this doesn't become a trend though.

[Teban54]

0z CMC also caved in to the GFS and shows a rather early recurve, a significant E shift from its earlier runs. Safely misses the islands too. However, it doesn't show the cutoff low near Florida that GFS has.

PS. You can tell how rapidly user participation drops off whenever the chance of a storm going OTS increases

[LarryWx]

Coming in furthest west on the 0Z Euro vs 12Z with more ridging to the north. Let's see how far west though. The upper low over the E US is much weaker and is weakening/retrograding as a high builds in. Could get interesting, folks.

[supercane4867]

No immediate OTS path on 00z euro. Escape door closing by 192hr

[SouthFLTropics]

The Euro is doubling down on its further west track. Looks like the earlier 12z OTS by the Euro was a fake out.


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[SouthFLTropics]

Beware of the thumb ridge… same thing that brought Matthew close to FL.


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