ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

Congrats to South Floridians, we dodged another and looking good for at least two weeks. And before anyone goes with it too soon and all that, I will donate $200 to S2k if this system makes landfall in Monroe, Dade, Broward, Palm Beach or Martin counties.

LOL!
Between climatology and all computer modeling, you're really going out on a risky limb here

How much are you laying on the table? Lol

I already made a 3 digit donation at the beginning of the season. I am happy to help S2K. Lets hope everything recurves the rest of the season.

[abajan]

Either losing some latitude, or getting vertically stacked.
https://imgur.com/OtDwDbt

Probably the latter. Upgrade to tropical storm soon, I think.

[blp]

 https://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/1440809541604503553

[Sciencerocks]

https://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/1440809541604503553?s=20

Just goes to show just how powerful of an east coast trough we have this season.

[zzh]

[CyclonicFury]

It seems like there are a lot of times where a developing MDR TC looks great and has a consensus T2.5, then ASCAT comes in and shows 25 kt winds, and NHC keeps it a TD

[cycloneye]

AL, 18, 2021092300, , BEST, 0, 102N, 344W, 30, 1008, TD

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1440856350737645573

[Nuno]

Congrats to South Floridians, we dodged another and looking good for at least two weeks. And before anyone goes with it too soon and all that, I will donate $200 to S2k if this system makes landfall in Monroe, Dade, Broward, Palm Beach or Martin counties.

LOL!
Between climatology and all computer modeling, you're really going out on a risky limb here

How much are you laying on the table? Lol

I already made a 3 digit donation at the beginning of the season. I am happy to help S2K. Lets hope everything recurves the rest of the season.

Why not make a donation to S2k anyways whether it landfalls or not? While climo is 99 out of 100 times in favor of such a storm harmlessly recurving, why even make such proclamations like that? It just comes off as very weird.

[Blown Away]

Probably could upgrade to Sam just because of the vigorous convection, but I have doubts TD18 has closed off the LLC.

Likely still due W, but maybe a hair south of west IMO.

[skyline385]

Probably could upgrade to Sam just because of the vigorous convection, but I have doubts TD18 has closed off the LLC.

Likely still due W, but maybe a hair south of west IMO.

Have they ever done that? Like upgrade to TS below 35kt?

[Teban54]

From the 11pm discussion:

Low- to mid-level ridging to the
north is expected to maintain the cyclone on a westward heading for
the next 36 hours, followed by a path toward the west-northwest
from day 2 through day 5. The more notable part of the forecast is
the forward speed. Global models are showing anomalously strong
500-mb ridging developing over the eastern and central Caribbean
Sea in 2 to 3 days, which is likely to block the depression's
forward progress toward the end of the forecast period. In fact,
the current NHC forecast has the system moving west-northwestward
at only 7 or 8 kt well east of the Lesser Antilles on days 3 through
5. All this means that it will probably be a few more days before
we have a better idea if and how the system might potentially
threaten areas farther west. For the 5-day forecast period, there
is a normal amount of spread among the track guidance, and the
updated NHC forecast is very close to a blend of the TVCA and HCCA
consensus aids. This solution is not too different from the
previous forecast.

[cycloneye]

Slightly west on forecast track on day 5.

[wxman57]

NHC did shift their track a little south and west. The 5-day point is still at 16N even though the longitude is a little less than a degree farther west. Not too far from our track now. Oh well, I'm taking a few days off (Thu-Sun). This storm won't be too much of a problem to handle without extra hands on deck.

[Sciencerocks]

[grapealcoholic]

It's going to be a pretty storm

[aspen]

It's going to be a pretty storm

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2021092300/hwrf_satIR_18L_15.png

Keep in mind the HWRF is on the NE side of the track guidance. If Sam is further SW like the CMC, it’ll be over waters approaching 29.5C and would get even stronger.

This is looking more and more like a later-season Jose.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Samwise Gamgee is here

Code: Select all

Tropical Storm EIGHTEEN
As of 12:00 UTC Sep 23, 2021:

Location: 10.8°N 37.4°W
Maximum Winds: 40 kt  Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 30 nm
34 kt Wind Radii by Quadrant:

[Extratropical94]

Samwise Gamgee is here

Code: Select all

Tropical Storm EIGHTEEN
As of 12:00 UTC Sep 23, 2021:

Location: 10.8°N 37.4°W
Maximum Winds: 40 kt  Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 30 nm
34 kt Wind Radii by Quadrant:

Also, the 06Z BT has been increased to 35 kts.

AL, 18, 2021092306, , BEST, 0, 106N, 360W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30, 1012, 120, 30, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EIGHTEEN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 038,
AL, 18, 2021092312, , BEST, 0, 108N, 374W, 40, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 40, 1012, 120, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EIGHTEEN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 038,

[aspen]

Samwise Gamgee is here

Code: Select all

Tropical Storm EIGHTEEN
As of 12:00 UTC Sep 23, 2021:

Location: 10.8°N 37.4°W
Maximum Winds: 40 kt  Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 30 nm
34 kt Wind Radii by Quadrant:

Also, the 06Z BT has been increased to 35 kts.

AL, 18, 2021092306, , BEST, 0, 106N, 360W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30, 1012, 120, 30, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EIGHTEEN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 038,
AL, 18, 2021092312, , BEST, 0, 108N, 374W, 40, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 40, 1012, 120, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EIGHTEEN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 038,

2005 just got beat again lol.

Sam is now the second-earliest S storm, behind Sally ‘20 (September 12th) and ahead of Stan ‘05 (October 2nd).