ATL: PETER - Remnants - Discussion

[Teban54]

042
WTNT31 KNHC 230235
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Peter Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021

...DEPRESSION PETERS OUT...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON PETER...

[AnnularCane]

042
WTNT31 KNHC 230235
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Peter Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021

...DEPRESSION PETERS OUT...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON PETER...

They were probably waiting to do this.

[USTropics]

For entertainment purposes only: the past two GFS runs pull a Peter Pan and brings this back from Neverland. From the 00z GFS forecast, here is a loop with 48 hour time-steps highlighting the remnants of Peter followed by the entire GFS run (starting 2 days ago):





The ECMWF and CMC have this being absorbed by the next trough pushing off the NE coast (a more likely scenario). Entertaining none the less though.

[Nimbus]

For entertainment purposes only: the past two GFS runs pull a Peter Pan and brings this back from Neverland. From the 00z GFS forecast, here is a loop with 48 hour time-steps highlighting the remnants of Peter followed by the entire GFS run (starting 2 days ago):

https://i.imgur.com/KuUjHb9.gif

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/pw/AM-JKLXkHJ-tokW7Yhyqxj6WXM1VZYUi9LkLRZf0mHym2xpI82zXaMJ-YIyBa1Ch8RHWTnWG2G6bIz_1eBB62taZ9WQZsfRqiFAVy66ZWVZLFAEnqjfP5kKHLjoDmMS_UUQL1CRvcKQVg6TBfafeeReLnwzQ=w1024-h724-no?authuser=0

The ECMWF and CMC have this being absorbed by the next trough pushing off the NE coast (a more likely scenario). Entertaining none the less though.

Advisory 18 ends the official observations, but the 153 isobar line is a couple thousand feet of low pressure that the GFS has hanging around till October?

ULL is still there to the north shearing convection east and the shear may be about the only thing providing any convective lift.

[SconnieCane]

For entertainment purposes only: the past two GFS runs pull a Peter Pan and brings this back from Neverland. From the 00z GFS forecast, here is a loop with 48 hour time-steps highlighting the remnants of Peter followed by the entire GFS run (starting 2 days ago):

https://i.imgur.com/KuUjHb9.gif

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/pw/AM-JKLXkHJ-tokW7Yhyqxj6WXM1VZYUi9LkLRZf0mHym2xpI82zXaMJ-YIyBa1Ch8RHWTnWG2G6bIz_1eBB62taZ9WQZsfRqiFAVy66ZWVZLFAEnqjfP5kKHLjoDmMS_UUQL1CRvcKQVg6TBfafeeReLnwzQ=w1024-h724-no?authuser=0

The ECMWF and CMC have this being absorbed by the next trough pushing off the NE coast (a more likely scenario). Entertaining none the less though.

Meanwhile, that GFS run casually with a potential Opal/Michael-like beast into the Big Bend, and another EPAC system heading towards Baja California Sur.

[Sciencerocks]

[AlphaToOmega]

An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with
the remnants of Peter is located several hundred miles south of
Bermuda. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for
slow development of this disturbance over the next few days as it
moves northeastward at 5 to 10 mph.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
*Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[galaxy401]

So Peter does still live. Thought it got absorbed by the trough that later became Teresa.

[CyclonicFury]

Up to 30/30

Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized
today in association with a surface trough that is the remnants of
Peter. Upper-level winds are marginally conducive for some slow
development of this disturbance over the next couple of days as it
moves northeastward at about 10 mph. By midweek, environmental
conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Sep 26 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Sam, located several hundred miles east of Lesser Antilles.

Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized
today in association with a surface trough (the remnants of
Peter) located several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda.
Upper-level winds are marginally conducive for further
development, and Peter could become a tropical depression again
during the next couple of days while it moves northeastward at
about 10 mph. By midweek, environmental conditions are expected to
become unfavorable for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[Teban54]

1. An elongated area of low pressure associated with the remnants of
Peter is located a few hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with this system have changed
little in organization since yesterday. However, environmental
conditions are marginally conducive for some further development,
and Peter could briefly become a tropical depression again during
the next day or two while it moves northeastward near 10 mph.
By midweek, environmental conditions are expected to become
unfavorable for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[Woofde]

Deja Vu... the P storm is trying reform while we rocket down the naming list.

[AnnularCane]

Deja Vu... the P storm is trying reform while we rocket down the naming list.

Yeah...I seem to remember another P storm doing the same thing.

[Teban54]

Much better than I thought, might already be close:

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

[Teban54]

Wouldn't be surprised if the TCR has it actually regenerate into a weak TD/TS.