ATL: SAM - Models

[AutoPenalti]

I have an odd feeling next 3 frames are going to blow this place up. Yikes.

[supercane4867]

The cut off trough on 12z euro is even weaker than the previous run

[aspen]

Just when it seemed like the Euro was going to follow the model consensus, it just can’t help itself but shove Sam further west again.

[Teban54]

Just when it seemed like the Euro was going to follow the model consensus, it just can’t help itself but shove Sam further west again.

Euro took offense at the posts saying it caved in to the GFS.

[chris_fit]

So Far...

[IcyTundra]

I think that neither the Euro or GFS will be right and instead it will be something inbetween the two.

[grapealcoholic]

Just when it seemed like the Euro was going to follow the model consensus, it just can’t help itself but shove Sam further west again.

Euro took offense at the posts saying it caved in to the GFS.

The model consensus gets better when there are outliers. You don't want herding

[BobHarlem]

It's been a while since we had a classic MDR model war setup (between impact or no) with a slow mover. Come back in about 5 days.

[skyline385]

This EURO run yikes...

[chris_fit]

I think that neither the Euro or GFS will be right and instead it will be something inbetween the two.

This. This is how it goes most of the time.

[AutoPenalti]

Holy crap that low is retrograding W...

[supercane4867]

12z euro suggests a setup similar to Hugo

[IcyTundra]

Euro beginning to turn NW or NNW.

[grapealcoholic]

945 on euro.. also this thing could clip the entire east coast

[supercane4867]

This is definitely not going OTS

[AutoPenalti]

945 on euro.. also this thing could clip the entire east coast

That's a huge connecting ridge, this has to be a landfall somewhere if extrapolated further out in time.

[IcyTundra]

Cutoff low over the SE US beginning to move out to the SW.

[sma10]

Hi Adrian. Do you have a graphic?

Here is a better representation:
https://i.imgur.com/4la40ei.png

For those interests in Greater Antilles, Bahamas, etc ... note not only the further SW bunching of the Euto ensemble tracks, but the "inferred" later movement. Regardless of member strength, there is an almost universal leftward bend at the tail end of the 144hr run. Does this mean anything specific? Maybe. It's a signal that the Euro is suggesting perhaps more ridging building into the SW Atlantic next week. We have to wait for the longer 12z run to confirm.

Confirmed (at least for the 12z run). Euro detects a noticeable leftward turn at 144 hrs keeping Bahamas on their toes.

[skyline385]

Anyone remember the last storm which dropped to 945 on the Euro??

[dspguy]

That Euro was a cliffhanger with a big "fooled you" at the end.