ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1441179014182227973

[grapealcoholic]

Raw ADT up to 4.1 which supports a hurricane

[skyline385]

Raw ADT up to 4.1 which supports a hurricane

It's already got the shrimp structure going so Raw ADT might be very close on this...

[cheezyWXguy]

Look closely at the northern lobe; Sam is attempting to close off a small eye. Based on the microwave, it might be closed but thin and ragged. A solid convective burst, and Sam will go supernova.

So what you’re saying is, it has a partial eyewall, but still has a bit more development to do?

I'm saying Sam is a hurricane

In due time. I like the convective pattern developing on the northern side, but so far the only evidence I see is a raw adt of 4.1, which isn’t conclusive enough for an upgrade. Could do it overnight though. I’m personally thinking we’ll see the first hints of a clearing eye on vis and Ir around daybreak tomorrow.

[skyline385]

Kinda sucks that we probably won't have recon for a while...

[aspen]

Kinda sucks that we probably won't have recon for a while...

I was just about to post how I think Monday is rather late for a first recon flight. Sam should be in reach of recon by late Saturday at the earliest, and probably on Sunday.

[Teban54]

It indeed seems like Sam is working on a small core. Intensification could be even faster than we expect IMO.

[CrazyC83]

With that structure, I would assess the intensity of Sam at 60 kt.

[Ubuntwo]

Core building

[grapealcoholic]

It's gonna open an eye soon

[CyclonicFury]

23/2330 UTC 11.0N 40.2W T4.0/4.0 SAM -- Atlantic

[Ubuntwo]

TXNT24 KNES 240028
TCSNTL

A. 18L (SAM)

B. 23/2330Z

C. 11.0N

D. 40.2W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T4.0/4.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS/AMSR2

H. REMARKS...0.8 CURVED BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.5. THE MET IS
3.5 BASED ON A NORMAL DEVELOPING TREND IN APPARENT INTENSITY OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS 4.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO BANDING
FEATURES NOT BEING CLEAR CUT.

[Blown Away]

TXNT24 KNES 240028
TCSNTL

A. 18L (SAM)

B. 23/2330Z

C. 11.0N

D. 40.2W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T4.0/4.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS/AMSR2

H. REMARKS...0.8 CURVED BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.5. THE MET IS
3.5 BASED ON A NORMAL DEVELOPING TREND IN APPARENT INTENSITY OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS 4.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO BANDING
FEATURES NOT BEING CLEAR CUT.

11.1N at 5pm advisory.

[GCANE]

Continuous firing high-helicity hot tower with a second weaker tower rotating CCW around it.
This will be a doozy.

[Iceresistance]

I'm not 100% sure, but Latest Satellite loop over the past 2 hours is showing Sam moving slightly South of West . . .

[cheezyWXguy]

So what you’re saying is, it has a partial eyewall, but still has a bit more development to do?

I'm saying Sam is a hurricane

In due time. I like the convective pattern developing on the northern side, but so far the only evidence I see is a raw adt of 4.1, which isn’t conclusive enough for an upgrade. Could do it overnight though. I’m personally thinking we’ll see the first hints of a clearing eye on vis and Ir around daybreak tomorrow.

Lot of improvement in the last hour. It ain’t no pinhole, but at this rate, the eye will clear out a lot earlier than daybreak, so I’ll have to take that part back. I bet the nhc will go with 70kt at 11.

[Iceresistance]

Eye Feature already on IR?

[GCANE]

This will be approaching the islands under the best looking ARWB I have seen in a long time.

[Ubuntwo]

I'm not 100% sure, but Latest Satellite loop over the past 2 hours is showing Sam moving slightly South of West . . .

As Blown Away pointed out, the latest SAB fix supports a southward component.

[aspen]

This will be approaching the islands under the best looking ARWB I have seen in a long time.

How high do you think the ceiling is for Sam, and what are your comment on the potential TUTT and bit of shear early next week?