ATL: SAM - Models

[blp]

TVCN continues shifting SW.

[Shell Mound]

TVCN continues shifting SW.

https://i.ibb.co/zGXQRPy/images.png

I would expect the TVCN to shift eastward over time. It gives too much weight to weaker guidance at the expense of the stronger, and Sam is currently exceeding even the most bullish guidance to date. The key is that the vast majority of the strongest EPS and GEFS members have been showing OTS, cycle after cycle, run after run. The weaker members were showing impacts to the northeastern Caribbean and other land-masses, but Sam’s (E)RI likely nullifies all of the western-leaning solutions and will contribute to an eastward bias in upcoming guidance. Expect future corrections.

[Blinhart]

I'm not even going to try to guess anywhere past 3 days into the future, there is too many things that can cause this system to do different things.

[Hurricaneman]

Anymore shifts west in the GFS and New England would get the brunt of Sam so let’s hope for between Bermuda and North Carolina then out to sea

[blp]

18z Euro ENS. vs 12z Euro ENS. OPS making a close run at the islands. The OPS is on the southern end of the strong cluster.

18z


12z

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://twitter.com/ECMWFbot/status/1441220914708815875

[blp]

HWRF also trending West

[sma10]

18z Euro ENS. vs 12z Euro ENS. OPS making a close run at the islands. The OPS is on the southern end of the strong cluster.

18z
https://i.ibb.co/5LVQrzj/tc-guidance-1.png

12z
https://i.ibb.co/kGvdVX3/tc-guidance.png

Looks like the 18z OPS crosses 60w at around 17.5N, which is further S than the 12z. Also, extrapolating, this run looks a bit faster.

[Category5Kaiju]

Just a thought, but I wonder if regardless of strength, size would be a major player in where Sam goes? Like perhaps its compactness will help it go further west? Or is this not right?

[Blown Away]

It seems when the models trend S & W like they have today we see a faster paced storm and when they trend N & E they tend to show a slower paced storm.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Just a thought, but I wonder if regardless of strength, size would be a major player in where Sam goes? Like perhaps its compactness will help it go further west? Or is this not right?

Speed is going to be a much bigger player than strength. A minimal hurricane and a strong hurricane are going to feel the same steering flow.

[Spacecoast]

NHC 11pm:
24H 25/0000Z 11.8N 45.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 12.1N 46.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 12.5N 47.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 26/1200Z 13.0N 49.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 13.5N 50.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 15.3N 53.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 17.3N 56.1W 110 KT 125 MPH

For reference, I've added a small square dot at 17.3N 56.1W to latest ensembles

[IcyTundra]

0Z GFS coming in a bit weaker and moving a little faster than the 18Z run.

[Blinhart]

Just a thought, but I wonder if regardless of strength, size would be a major player in where Sam goes? Like perhaps its compactness will help it go further west? Or is this not right?

Speed is going to be a much bigger player than strength. A minimal hurricane and a strong hurricane are going to feel the same steering flow.

They would not have the same steering flow.

[ncforecaster89]

Actually, a weaker, more shallow system will be steered more westerly and at a faster transitional speed by the lower-level winds than a deeper, more intense TC…that will tend to move more northerly.

[IcyTundra]

00Z GFS Sam barely misses Bermuda to the east. Nova Scotia probably going to get hit again this run.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks to be having a slight west component similar to the 18z and if so it would landfall in extreme Eastern Maine but with that beyond 7 days it will probably change

It heads out south of Atlantic Canada

[Teban54]

Lol, the GFS seems to make Sam plow through a ridge again (even if you go by the contours and not the colors in the 500mb height plot).

[Hurricaneman]

Lol, the GFS seems to make Sam plow through a ridge again (even if you go by the contours and not the colors in the 500mb height plot).

The difference is the cutoff didn’t phase with Sam this run

[Blinhart]

So could we be seeing a possible Long Island Express??