ATL: SAM - Models

[AubreyStorm]

No way

[gatorcane]

There's roughly 5-7 days before we even figure out where this will be so A LOT can change.

Yes they can change but at least the model spaghetti strongly suggests a recurve and I think it is clear the Euro has been way too west-biased until the last run. Islands and Bermuda should watch though:

[gatorcane]

The 06Z GFS brings a powerful Sam over Bermuda, fortunately the island is tiny so likely will not end up like that.

[sma10]

There's roughly 5-7 days before we even figure out where this will be so A LOT can change.

Of course a recurve is the most likely outcome, but in a way this reminds me of whenever the reverse scenario exists: a storm is in the central Atlantic 6-8 days from CONUS and the models all show a strong high with various solutions - does it go below or above Hisp? Does it make it all the way into the Gulf? And the posts say "someone is getting this one for sure" and "absolutely zero chance of this avoiding the US".

And then, lo and behold ...

Just saying, things do change occasionally

[Teban54]

There's roughly 5-7 days before we even figure out where this will be so A LOT can change.

Of course a recurve is the most likely outcome, but in a way this reminds me of whenever the reverse scenario exists: a storm is in the central Atlantic 6-8 days from CONUS and the models all show a strong high with various solutions - does it go below or above Hisp? Does it make it all the way into the Gulf? And the posts say "someone is getting this one for sure" and "absolutely zero chance of this avoiding the US".

And then, lo and behold ...

Just saying, things do change occasionally

This was exactly what happened with Laura, Fred and maybe even Grace. I remember people writing lengthy posts saying these storms will definitely go OTS. Just saying.

[Spacecoast]

NHC 11:00....
24H 25/1200Z 12.3N 47.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 12.7N 48.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 13.1N 49.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 13.7N 50.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 14.6N 52.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 16.4N 54.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 18.2N 57.7W 110 KT 125 MPH

For reference, I placed a small black square @ NHC 5 day point, along w/ pink (hard to see) line from 96 hr point, on latest ensembles:
NHC seems to favor GEFS mean over ECENS mean atm....

[Spacecoast]

Latest multi model plot (12z from 6z runs)
ECMF still lagging in intensity? why so different?

[gatorcane]

See ya

[pgoss11]

12z CMC with a Cape Cod LF. I know.. it’s the CMC.

[underthwx]

See ya

https://i.postimg.cc/RZRCFZ3J/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh60-198.gif

Gone fishin?...

[Category5Kaiju]

Did the last GFS run just do what I thought it did?

[Iceresistance]

12z CMC is very concerning as a 971 MB Hurricane Landfall over New Hampshire/Maine . . .

[ColdMiser123]

12z CMC is very concerning as a 971 MB Hurricane Landfall over New Hampshire/Maine . . .

That is the risk to the Northeast with that set-up. It's low, but it's there.

It's low because you need to get a cutoff low of around a certain strength in order for that solution to verify. Can't be too weak, or it won't be able to bring the storm in. Can't be too strong either though, or it will shear Sam apart.

Ridge to the Northeast also needs to be substantial so that Sam doesn't drift too far east and miss the phase. There's a lot that needs to come together for that solution to happen.

[jets42689]

Hey Everyone, new member here. Have really enjoyed following this storm. I am by no means an expert, but I am trying to learn. On another note, I live in Broward County (SE Florida). Would you say that we are 100% in the clear?

[skyline385]

Hey Everyone, new member here. Have really enjoyed following this storm. I am by no means an expert, but I am trying to learn. On another note, I live in Broward County (SE Florida). Would you say that we are 100% in the clear?

Not even the NHC will say that you are 100% in the clear, however it is pretty unlikely at the moment that it impacts SFL. We have yet to see a single run with a Florida landfall and there aren't any ensembles hinting at that either.

[AutoPenalti]

Hey Everyone, new member here. Have really enjoyed following this storm. I am by no means an expert, but I am trying to learn. On another note, I live in Broward County (SE Florida). Would you say that we are 100% in the clear?

It’s something to watch, nothing concrete with a forecast that’s >7 days out

[jets42689]

Hey Everyone, new member here. Have really enjoyed following this storm. I am by no means an expert, but I am trying to learn. On another note, I live in Broward County (SE Florida). Would you say that we are 100% in the clear?

Not even the NHC will say that you are 100% in the clear, however it is pretty unlikely at the moment that it impacts SFL. We have yet to see a single run with a Florida landfall and there aren't any ensembles hinting at that either.

Can you recall any instance of a hurricane taking a track that is well outside of all ensembles 7+ days out? I was looking up Andrew to see what the very early ensembles called for, but I can't find anything.

[xironman]

I think the CMC does a better job than the GFS, the upper low spawning a coastal off Cape May while a hurricane is going by isn't going to happen.

[ronjon]

Did the last GFS run just do what I thought it did?

Been pretty consistent goin fishin with Sam...but the anomalous tropical storm it develops off the Del Marva also looks fishy to me.

[underthwx]

Hey Everyone, new member here. Have really enjoyed following this storm. I am by no means an expert, but I am trying to learn. On another note, I live in Broward County (SE Florida). Would you say that we are 100% in the clear?

Not even the NHC will say that you are 100% in the clear, however it is pretty unlikely at the moment that it impacts SFL. We have yet to see a single run with a Florida landfall and there aren't any ensembles hinting at that either.

Can you recall any instance of a hurricane taking a track that is well outside of all ensembles 7+ days out? I was looking up Andrew to see what the very early ensembles called for, but I can't find anything.

Matthew 2016???...