ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

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Ubuntwo
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#461 Postby Ubuntwo » Fri Sep 24, 2021 10:23 am

Weather Dude wrote:I don't really think the size of the core had much to with it as small cores can get going much quicker than large ones. I think the big band definitely hurt but now that its gone there shouldn't be much holding it back. If the core is small is could RI faster.

Tiny cores are more prone to disruptions like the small dry air intrusion overnight. In marginal conditions that is sometimes a limiting factor - storms like Delta never pull it back together. But since Sam is in a great thermodynamic and upper level environment it should recover quite quickly (if it hasn't already).
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#462 Postby underthwx » Fri Sep 24, 2021 10:55 am

In reference to the 11am NHC Hurricane Sam update....are there are any differences of note in the track...or intensity?...
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#463 Postby Teban54 » Fri Sep 24, 2021 10:55 am

Starting to see hints of an eye clearing out on IR:
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#464 Postby Ubuntwo » Fri Sep 24, 2021 10:57 am

underthwx wrote:In reference to the 11am NHC Hurricane Sam update....are there are any differences of note in the track...or intensity?...

Papin keeps it as a cat-4 for slightly longer, but peak is unchanged. As for track...
The consensus track aid TCVN blends the aforementioned
model guidance and has changed little this cycle, and the latest NHC
track forecast is largely an update of the previous advisory.


(The 5 AM did shift slightly south)
Last edited by Ubuntwo on Fri Sep 24, 2021 11:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#465 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 24, 2021 10:58 am

Great news as the squadron will begin missions starting on Sunday morning instead of early Monday as it was planned on Thursday with NOAA plane and then the synoptic gulfstream missions will fly on late Sunday and early Monday.

Sam Recon Thread
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Re: ATL: SAM - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#466 Postby underthwx » Fri Sep 24, 2021 10:59 am

cycloneye wrote:This is important.

Partially due to an adjustment of the initial
position, the new NHC track forecast has been shifted southward a
bit from the previous forecast, and it lies just south of the TVCA
consensus aid--but not as far to the left as the previously
mentioned southern models.


Luis.....can you point out some of the implications of this?....what this may mean for the future of Sam?.... Thankyou...
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#467 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Sep 24, 2021 11:02 am

This is NOT 75 mph, I'm leaning closer to 70-80 Knots (80-90 mph)

Image

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Reason for Edit: Added a Disclaimer
Last edited by Iceresistance on Fri Sep 24, 2021 11:22 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#468 Postby kevin » Fri Sep 24, 2021 11:02 am

cycloneye wrote:Great news as the squadron will begin missions starting on Sunday morning instead of early Monday as it was planned on Thursday with NOAA plane and then the synoptic gulfstream missions will fly on late Sunday and early Monday.

Sam Recon Thread


Good news, this will mean we will get a way better idea of Sam's probably RI phase and also means that we'll get information that could help the models earlier than previously thought.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#469 Postby underthwx » Fri Sep 24, 2021 11:03 am

Ubuntwo wrote:
underthwx wrote:In reference to the 11am NHC Hurricane Sam update....are there are any differences of note in the track...or intensity?...

Papin keeps it as a cat-4 for slightly longer, but peak is unchanged. As for track...
The consensus track aid TCVN blends the aforementioned
model guidance and has changed little this cycle, and the latest NHC
track forecast is largely an update of the previous advisory.


(The 5 AM did shift slightly south)


Thanks for your reply....and yes....I thought I noticed the slight southward shift in the track...however subtle it is....but I wasn't for sure...
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#470 Postby Stormybajan » Fri Sep 24, 2021 11:13 am

cycloneye wrote:Great news as the squadron will begin missions starting on Sunday morning instead of early Monday as it was planned on Thursday with NOAA plane and then the synoptic gulfstream missions will fly on late Sunday and early Monday.

Sam Recon Thread

Great news imo I always thought Monday was a bit too late, in terms of given models the right atmospheric data and the true strength of Sam (who imo is 80 mph right now)
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#471 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 24, 2021 11:16 am

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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#472 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 24, 2021 11:17 am

Seems to be trying to become more CDO dominant though the intense feeder band from yesterday gone. Reminds me a lot of those EPAC hurricanes that have dry air issues at a similar rate intensity.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#473 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 24, 2021 11:23 am

Stormybajan wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Great news as the squadron will begin missions starting on Sunday morning instead of early Monday as it was planned on Thursday with NOAA plane and then the synoptic gulfstream missions will fly on late Sunday and early Monday.

Sam Recon Thread

Great news imo I always thought Monday was a bit too late, in terms of given models the right atmospheric data and the true strength of Sam (who imo is 80 mph right now)


Those synoptic missions will be of big help to the models imput.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#474 Postby aspen » Fri Sep 24, 2021 11:30 am

Sam’s UL setup will become the most favorable starting tomorrow around 12-15z and continue for several days, with an anticyclone opening outflow in all directions. Barring any unpredictable dry air intrusions or EWRCs, there should be nothing in Sam’s way to become a 120-135 kt Cat 4 by the time recon gets there early Sunday. The timing for that mission looks to be just right to sample Sam’s peak intensity.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#475 Postby Teban54 » Fri Sep 24, 2021 12:01 pm

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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#476 Postby abajan » Fri Sep 24, 2021 1:06 pm

[youtube]https://youtu.be/Q7RJ2TWA_K4[/youtube]
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#477 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Sep 24, 2021 1:09 pm

Looks like there's another big band developing to the east. I wonder if that will try to compete with the center like the last one did.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#478 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Sep 24, 2021 1:16 pm

Latest Tropical Tidbits on Sam

[youtube]https://youtu.be/-03GVAzWYWw[/youtube]
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#479 Postby ChrisH-UK » Fri Sep 24, 2021 1:31 pm

Took a peak inside Sam using the CIRA Optical Depth product from GOES-16. The optical depth shows the thickness of the clouds showing the bands, thunderstorms and circulation with in a storm.

Source - https://col.st/KJfCx

Image
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#480 Postby AlphaToOmega » Fri Sep 24, 2021 1:58 pm

Hurricane Sam is now 70 knots, so intensification is starting again.
AL, 18, 2021092418, , BEST, 0, 119N, 443W, 70, 989, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 0, 0, 10, 1011, 120, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SAM, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 038,
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