ATL: TERESA - Remnants - Discussion

[Subtrop]

AL, 99, 2021092406, , BEST, 0, 314N, 620W, 25, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 150, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 041,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/

[cycloneye]

A large area of showers and thunderstorms centered a couple
hundred miles east of Bermuda is associated with a formative surface
low interacting with an upper-level trough. Additional tropical or
subtropical development of this system could occur through early
Saturday as it moves generally north-northwestward. After that
time, development is not expected due to strong upper-level winds.
Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Category5Kaiju]

Wow...did not expect this at all. 99L just came in like a dark horse. Assuming it does get named, and the MDR wave gets named as well....that's it. All we have left is Wanda, and then after that it's the auxiliary list.

[Sciencerocks]

[underthwx]

Wow...did not expect this at all. 99L just came in like a dark horse. Assuming it does get named, and the MDR wave gets named as well....that's it. All we have left is Wanda, and then after that it's the auxiliary list.

Has there ever been 2 back to back seasons that used up all the names...before using the Greek names?...

[ElectricStorm]

Wow...did not expect this at all. 99L just came in like a dark horse. Assuming it does get named, and the MDR wave gets named as well....that's it. All we have left is Wanda, and then after that it's the auxiliary list.

Has there ever been 2 back to back seasons that used up all the names...before using the Greek names?...

Nope. The only other year was 2005

[underthwx]

Wow...did not expect this at all. 99L just came in like a dark horse. Assuming it does get named, and the MDR wave gets named as well....that's it. All we have left is Wanda, and then after that it's the auxiliary list.

Has there ever been 2 back to back seasons that used up all the names...before using the Greek names?...

Nope. The only other year was 2005

Thx WD....

[galaxy401]

This isn't Peter exactly but I'm guessing it's the trough that absorbed Peter?

[MGC]

Looks like 99L is well on its way to becoming a TC......MGC

[NewEnglandWinter]

Surface observations and recent satellite wind data indicate that a
surface low located a couple hundred miles north-northeast of
Bermuda is gradually becoming better defined as it interacts with an
upper-level trough. This system is producing winds of 40 to 45 mph
north of the low center and additional development into a
subtropical or tropical storm appears likely. Advisories could be
initiated as soon as this afternoon as the system moves slowly
toward the north-northwest over the next day or so. Additional
information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[KirbyDude25]

Surface observations and recent satellite wind data indicate that a
surface low located a couple hundred miles north-northeast of
Bermuda is gradually becoming better defined as it interacts with an
upper-level trough. This system is producing winds of 40 to 45 mph
north of the low center and additional development into a
subtropical or tropical storm appears likely. Advisories could be
initiated as soon as this afternoon as the system moves slowly
toward the north-northwest over the next day or so. Additional
information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Looks like we could be getting Tropical/Subtropical Storm Teresa before the day's over

[aspen]

Wow this came out of nowhere and spun up fast. Unfortunately, it won’t have much time to be anything very noteworthy.

[Sciencerocks]

[ChrisH-UK]

Interestingly some of the models have 99L splitting and part of it heading towards New England, another model shows landfall in New England area.

[Extratropical94]

40kts

AL, 99, 2021092418, , BEST, 0, 341N, 641W, 40, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 120, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 041,

[Hammy]

Convection's waning pretty quickly, looks like it might've missed it's chance.

[CrazyC83]

This is supposed to be the upper level low that complicates the forecast for Sam down the road?

[Extratropical94]

STWO

Updated: Recent visible satellite imagery indicates that a
well-defined center has formed with a surface low located a couple
hundred miles north-northeast of Bermuda interacting with an
upper-level trough. In addition, the low is producing gale-force
winds on the north side of its circulation. Additional development
into a subtropical storm is now expected, and advisories will likely
be initiated this afternoon as the system moves slowly toward the
north-northwest. Additional information on this system, including
gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[zzh]

AL192021 - Tropical Storm TERESA

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/season.asp?storm_season=2021

[Extratropical94]

This is supposed to be the upper level low that complicates the forecast for Sam down the road?

I think the UL trough that is forecast to become that cut off ULL near the east coast in the future is currently over western Canada.