ATL: SAM - Models

[kevin]

Nevermind, the NE should definitely still keep an eye on this. Tbh I don't think we'll know the track with anything close to certainty until after recon arrives and samples the area.

[xironman]

Nice little fish storm the Euro has there /sarc

[CrazyC83]

Nice little fish storm the Euro has there /sarc

https://i.imgur.com/tPpnfxG.png

It only has to go slightly farther west to feel the upper level low to the southwest. It's reminiscent of Joaquin 2015...

[TheDreamTraveler]

Nice little fish storm the Euro has there /sarc

https://i.imgur.com/tPpnfxG.png

It only has to go slightly farther west to feel the upper level low to the southwest. It's reminiscent of Joaquin 2015...

Wasn't the model split with Joaquin reversed? I think GFS had it going into the east coast and euro going out to sea but I might be misremembering

[LarryWx]

The 12Z EPS 51 members have no SE US landfalls with only one that skirts the Outer Banks. However, it does have several that landfall in the NE US:

[RevanTheJedi96]

To all the people saying OTS is a done deal spoiler alert: it isn't. New England and Bermuda need to keep a close eye on this one.

You could have a CAT 5 aiming right for Boston and you'd still get people thinking it's going to be a fish storm and that there's an overreaction.

People only seem to care about hurricanes if they're hitting Florida, Louisiana or Texas at this point.

[grapealcoholic]

Trough coming in more amplified on this GFS run

[Ubuntwo]

HWRF still leaves quite a significant cold wake. Sam remains very well stacked through the run, so I still think upwelling will be the biggest mid term limiting factor above increasing shear. Day 5 onwards Sam will enter higher OHC water while accelerating so maybe it reintensifies. The 12z Euro had this solution, reaching 942 mb just over 6 days out.

[grapealcoholic]

Curious how this run plays out. Seems like the northern lobe of the trough now slides away with ridging building in over top

[xironman]

Curious how this run plays out. Seems like the northern lobe of the trough now slides away with ridging building in over top

Huge differences at H5 at 144, this is why it is so hard to predict impacts north of GA. The upper air is not well sampled over the Northern Pacific so the evolution is hard to predict until much closer to the event. I have been buried 3ft deep in snow by so many 7 day storms I can't even count them.

[AutoPenalti]

To all the people saying OTS is a done deal spoiler alert: it isn't. New England and Bermuda need to keep a close eye on this one.

You could have a CAT 5 aiming right for Boston and you'd still get people thinking it's going to be a fish storm and that there's an overreaction.

People only seem to care about hurricanes if they're hitting Florida, Louisiana or Texas at this point.

Unfortunately this forum has majority of users based in the Gulf or Florida Peninsula.

[tolakram]

To all the people saying OTS is a done deal spoiler alert: it isn't. New England and Bermuda need to keep a close eye on this one.

You could have a CAT 5 aiming right for Boston and you'd still get people thinking it's going to be a fish storm and that there's an overreaction.

People only seem to care about hurricanes if they're hitting Florida, Louisiana or Texas at this point.

Unfortunately this forum has majority of users based in the Gulf or Florida Peninsula.

People are giving their opinion on the storm, while some insist on giving an opinion about other opinions. Let's stay on topic please, if you think a post violates S2K rules report it, otherwise move on. There's a feature in your user control panel called friends and foes which is an ignore list of sorts. Put names in the foe list if there are particular posters you don't want to hear from.

[aspen]

Sam stays off of the US East Coast this run, but the cutoff low stalls over the Gulf Stream and would probably become a tropical storm in this scenario. It could become Wanda and then hit NJ.

[pgoss11]

Sam stays off of the US East Coast this run, but the cutoff low stalls over the Gulf Stream and would probably become a tropical storm in this scenario. It could become Wanda and then hit NJ.

Very complicated set up down the road. The cutoff low is definitely a fly in the ointment so to speak.

[grapealcoholic]

Sam stays off of the US East Coast this run, but the cutoff low stalls over the Gulf Stream and would probably become a tropical storm in this scenario. It could become Wanda and then hit NJ.

Also don't look at the Caribbean

[xironman]

Sam stays off of the US East Coast this run, but the cutoff low stalls over the Gulf Stream and would probably become a tropical storm in this scenario. It could become Wanda and then hit NJ.

The run is garbage after 144, suddenly there is a big 500 mb low in the gulf of maine that we have not seen before. Wait for consistency.

[grapealcoholic]

There was actually a big shift south in the ensemble

[AutoPenalti]

Something tells me those south shifts ain’t over...

[LarryWx]

18Z EPS: little change vs 12Z

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Typically, Sam would have little actual chance of a North American landfall but given that pesky upper-level low (projected to form) and a possible building ridge to the NE of Sam and things become tricky, to say the least. This is, of course, if either of the two players verifies: the upper-level low might not form or be weaker and the ridge might be weaker or in a different position. It is a 50/50 shot between a harmless (to everyone but offshore interests) fish storm and one that either impacts or comes dangerously close to the Eastern Seaboard right now, as I see things. Interesting days (and nights) ahead.