CMC and other globals continue to spin up E. Caribbean

[Stormsfury]

disturance ...

Latest 24 Hour WV imagery reveal that the TUTT type ULL has moved west towards the Western Caribbean, leaving in its wake a shortwave upper level ridge in its place... convection has remarkedly increased in the region in the last 24-48 hours ...

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

The CMC and its ensemble members are quite insistent on the idea of a development scenario (now making the 5th consecutive day for such a depiction and 9 runs of the operational and 5 for the ensemble member spread) ...

A good spread of CMC ensemble members now depict that something comes from this ... with a couple of members depicting stronger development ... CMC5 develops quite a healthy system and PHASES it with the extratropical low for later in the period and DEEPENS the PHASED low down to 940 MB!!!!!! moving NW past Hudson Bay and winding down (a VERY extreme and an outlier scenario ... not likely) ... ALL the member spread and the operational CMC do not make this a US threat ... so don't worry about that ...

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Mode ... mbles.html

The GFS 00z run deepened the system somewhat (down to 1007 mb), but the 12z run splits the energy more pronouncely and takes the majority of it NNE after passing by PR and keeping it a weaker low scenario ...

GFS 00z 950mb Vort.
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/avntc2.cgi? ... =Animation

12z
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/avntc2.cgi? ... =Animation

The CMC operational model guidance at 00z depicts quite a system developing at the surface and also like some of the CMC ensembles, shows a phasing of the tropical system down the road with an extratropical system exiting off the coast of the NE US and becoming quite a maritime low.

CMC 00z run MSLP
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmctc2.cgi? ... =Animation

CMC 00z run 925mb Vort (clearly shows the phasing in the N. Atlantic) and would pose quite an issue for Newfoundland in the MR ...
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmctc2.cgi? ... =Animation

CMC 12z run 925mb Vort (showing a transfer of energy from the Eastern Caribbean into a strong reflectivity north of between Hispanola and PR).
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmctc2.cgi? ... =Animation

CMC 12z run MSLP
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmctc2.cgi? ... =Animation

Just WHY doesn't the UKMET show much of anything ... Hmmm, well it does show SOMETHING ... the vorticity, albeit weak, and correctly assuming the energy gets TRAPPED right over Hispanola ...

UKMET 12z 925mb Vorticity
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/ukmettc2.cg ... =Animation

The NOGAPS ... is NOW ON BOARD AS WELL ... and quite striking ... as it takes a developed system WNW! ... however, right now, IMHO, the movement is the model bias showing up being much too progressive further south, despite showing quite an amplified extratropical system at the 500mb level in the NE states/Eastern Canada.

NOGAPS 96 hour Surface Isotechs/Wind Barbs and MSLP


NOGAPS 120 hour Surface Isotechs/Wind Barbs and MSLP


NOGAPS 96 hour Streamlines


Even the ETA showing a 1008mb low between Hispanola and PR.


There's a bit of potential down in the region ... be on guard ... at the least, expect very heavy rains in that region (some already have been experiencing such weather conditions) ...

SF

[Josephine96]

Well.. we could indeed have a late November storm if these models pan out. 19 days and counting. Lets see what happens

[ColdFront77]

Nothing to worry about even if the chances of this system making it to the U.S. Most of us (I would think) would want
something to move toward and into the country.

[Anonymous]

CMC takes it to a pressure of 988-978 MB. That's a hurricane. I'd like to track one more.

[sea oat]

hi my first post. i've been following SF on this one. is this a threat to the mainland?

[Anonymous]

I doubt it, but time will tell.

[Stormsfury]

hi my first post. i've been following SF on this one. is this a threat to the mainland?

First and foremost, welcome to Storm2k, sea oat. A mainland US is not likely based on the overall weather pattern over the US and North Atlantic ... currently the model progs develop quite a deep Eastern extratropical low in the Northeastern US/Eastern Canada and sweeping offshore and would likely sweep up the system currently down there in the E. Caribbean north and north-northeastward with time ...

[ameriwx2003]

Guess.. who won't throw in the towel on this system:):)... JB says he doesn't buy into the recurvature the GFS and the CMC show.. He thinks the ridge will hold.. He doesn't say this will be a US threat but will be in the SE Bahamas or Eastern Cuba later this week:):).. I agree with you SF... this will get drawn North- North east and out to sea:):):)

[Stormsfury]

Guess.. who won't throw in the towel on this system:):)... JB says he doesn't buy into the recurvature the GFS and the CMC show.. He thinks the ridge will hold.. He doesn't say this will be a US threat but will be in the SE Bahamas or Eastern Cuba later this week:):).. I agree with you SF... this will get drawn North- North east and out to sea:):):)

LOL ... the 18z run of the NOGAPS shows the system a little deeper and after moving NW, gets turned N, then NE, then E (clockwise looping) very slowly at the end of the timeframe ... the 00z run poised to come out soon.

BTW, JB musta NOT seen the new EURO just yet, either .... shows quite a deep extratropical low (985 mb) just NW of Maine with a strong CD extending down off the Eastern Seaboard ...

Day 4...MSLP
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

Day 4...500mb HEIGHTS
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

Notice the weakness of the ridges in between the highs in the GOM and the ATL ...

[ameriwx2003]

SF.. yes... JB loves the EURO so your right he must not have seen that or is so blinded becasue he wants a Florida storm:):). I am sure tomorrows column he will come around :):)

[Steve H.]

Hold on there fellers. Check out the MLB AFD from this afternoon. They aren't buying the idea of a cold front sweeping through here this week either. What they are saying is that the center of the ridge will move off the mid atlantic coast on Wednesday, but elongate with the axis of the ridge staying north of Florida and building west toward the western GOM! This could make things interresting since they believe nothing will permeate the ridge at least through Friday. Cheers!! PS: couldn't find the link since they have the 8:30 AFD up now; Check NWS for previous.

[Stormsfury]

Hold on there fellers. Check out the MLB AFD from this afternoon. They aren't buying the idea of a cold front sweeping through here this week either. What they are saying is that the center of the ridge will move off the mid atlantic coast on Wednesday, but elongate with the axis of the ridge staying north of Florida and building west toward the western GOM! This could make things interresting since they believe nothing will permeate the ridge at least through Friday. Cheers!! PS: couldn't find the link since they have the 8:30 AFD up now; Check NWS for previous.

This was MLB this afternoon... the EURO seems to pick up on this quite well ... however, one of the things mentioned as well is the zonal wind flow .. yes, I believe there will be quite a ridge, however, at the same time, there should be quite enough of a weakness in between the ridge to allow the system to be drawn northward and either be

1) Swept out into the Atlantic
2) Pulled in and drawn into the larger extratropical low pressure system from the Northeast/Eastern Canada and merging with it somewhere in the Canadian Maritimes

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
345 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2003

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...
COOL FRONT HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTH WITH LEADING EDGE OF THE
COOLER AIR BEING SLOWED BY THE HEATING/MIXING THAT WAS OCCURRING
OVER OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. NORTHERLY SURGE PUSHING THIS FRONT HAD
PRODUCED GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST. WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS IN THE 70S NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

TONIGHT...
EXPECT THAT WINDS OVER LAND WILL DECOUPLE WITH THE MOIST NORTH FLOW
OCCURRING ABOVE IT SUSTAINING THE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKING INTO NORTHERN
SECTIONS...BUT CLOUDS/WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM COOLING THAT MUCH.
WILL PLAN ON AREAS OF DRIZZLE IN THE NORTH HALF WHERE THE GREATEST
BAROCLINIC EFFECTS WILL OCCUR. WILL LEAVE SMALL COASTAL RAIN CHANCE
IN THE SOUTH AS BOUNDARY DROPS DOWN INTO MOIST AIR MASS... AND WHERE
TRAJECTORY OF NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL MOST FAVOR ISOLATED ATLANTIC
SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE.

&&

.MON-WED...
EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG ZONAL FLOW IN THE H50-H25 LAYER...THE SFC
RIDGE BLANKETING MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST OF THE MS RIVER WILL PUSH OFF
THE MID ATLC/NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. ITS
TRAILING AXIS IS SOUTH OF THE MAIN JET...HOWEVER...SO THE RIDGE WILL
BECOME ELONGATED AS THE CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE. BOTH GFS/ETA MODELS
INDICATE THE RIDGE EXTENDING CLEAR BACK TO THE WRN GOMEX THROUGH 00Z
WED. THE AXIS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE PANHANDLE AS THE ONLY
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROF THAT COULD PUSH IT THROUGH THE STATE IS
ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ZONAL JET AND HAS LITTLE CHANCE OF DIGGING
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH.

THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE...BUT SHOULD RELAX A BIT BY WED AS THE RIDGE
AXIS BEGINS TO TRACK ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
MINIMAL AS NRLY WINDS ABV H70 WILL GRADUALLY PULL IN DRY AIR ALOFT.
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION PRECIP IN THE TEXT FCST BEYOND
MON...BUT WILL KEEP A SILENT 10% IN THE GRID FCST AS STRONG AND
PROLONGED ERLY FLOW OFTEN PRODUCES ISOLD SHRA ACTIVITY OVER EAST
CENTRAL FL. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MODIFIED OCEAN AIR OVER
THE STATE AND WILL KEEP DIURNAL TEMP VARIATIONS LOW...AOB 10F DEG
ALONG THE COAST AND 10-15F DEG INLAND.

&&

.EXTENDED...
MOS TEMPS HAVE FLIP-FLOPPED OVER THE LAST TWO RUNS THU/FRI/SAT...
09/00Z ~5-10F DEG WARMER THAN THE 08/00Z...AND 08/00Z CAME IN ~5-10F
DEG COOLER THAN 07/00Z. LATEST GFS RUN STILL BRINGS A COLD FRONT
THROUGH FL AROUND 12Z FRI...BUT IT'S AS AGGRESSIVE WITH COLD/DRY AIR
ADVECTION OVER FL AS IT TAKES THE CENTER OF THE TRAILING RIDGE
FURTHER NORTH. THIS SOLUTION SEEMS MORE REASONABLE GIVEN THE ZONAL
FLOW REGIME THAT THE U.S. IS LOCKED INTO. WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS A FEW
DEG ABV GUIDANCE AS THE LATEST SOLUTION WOULD GENERATE AN ONSHORE
FLOW IN THE SFC-H85 LAYER...MAX TEMPS LOOK OKAY.

&&

This is the 8:35 pm EDT Discussion

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
835 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2003

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS ARE STILL HOWLING THIS EVENING WITH STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
OF ARND 7.5MB FROM MLB-JAX. KXMR WIND PROFILERS SHOWING 35KT JUST
OFF THE DECK. LOW LEVEL MESO LOW/CIRCULATION CENTER MOVING ONSHORE
THE COAST OF ST LUCIE COUNTY AT PRESENT. BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING
ONSHORE TO THE NORTH AND PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS THEY
PASS. SO FAR NOT OBSERVING ANY SIGNIFICANT TRAINING IN HEAVY RAIN
AREAS BUT WILL BE A CONCERN INTO MONDAY WITH CONVERGENT BANDS MOVING
ONSHORE. EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW STRATUS EVIDENT ON SAT PIX AND SFC
OBS AND WILL PERSIST OVER REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAY BE
A LITTLE FOG BUT NOT ANTICIPATING SIGNIFICANT VSBY DROPS. STRONG
WINDS AND LOW BKN/OVC CLOUD DECKS THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR AVIATION
INTERESTS. WILL UPDATE ZONES/GRIDS TO MAKE A FEW PESSIMISTIC TWEAKS
TO POPS AND WINDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS TRENDS ARE INDICATING.

&&

.MARINE...
SUSTAINED N-NE WINDS HAVE BEEN ABOVE 20KT FOR PAST SEVERAL HOURS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS ABOVE 30KT. SEAS ARE BUILDING IN RESPONSE AND
ARE PRESENTLY RUNNING AROUND 11 FT AT BUOY 41009. COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST ON TRACK BUT MAY ADD MENTION FOR GUSTS TO GALE FORCE
OVERNIGHT AT LEAST FOR NORTHERN LEG.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH.

[Stormsfury]

Just for kicks ...

AMSU pass at 15.9ºN, 62.9ºW estimates of 51 kts in a strong thunderstorm...