ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

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Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#961 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Sep 25, 2021 6:40 pm

DioBrando wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Sam ranking very highly up there with other powerful MDR storms this evening. My 135 knot, MSLP 945mb guess is looking good.

Like which ones you reckon?


Jose 2017, Hugo 1988, Igor 2010, and others.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#962 Postby Teban54 » Sat Sep 25, 2021 6:42 pm

On one hand the IR presentation really took a beating, on the other hand there's still intense lightning in the eyewall and pressure hasn't changed much. I don't know what's going on here...

If there was indeed a weakening from the 5pm advisory time (when Sam looked the best IMO) to when recon arrived, one might be able to argue that Sam was a Cat 5 earlier, but the assumed weakening is not a given.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#963 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Sep 25, 2021 6:42 pm

Teban54 wrote:On one hand the IR presentation really took a beating, on the other hand there's still intense lightning in the eyewall and pressure hasn't changed much. I don't know what's going on here...

If there was indeed a weakening from the 5pm advisory time (when Sam looked the best IMO) to when recon arrived, one might be able to argue that Sam was a Cat 5 earlier, but the assumed weakening is not a given.


Eye has expanded from 9nm to 13nm.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#964 Postby GCANE » Sat Sep 25, 2021 6:43 pm

Last eye drop recorded 43% RH at 700mb.
Good indication an EWRC maybe forthcoming.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#965 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sat Sep 25, 2021 6:43 pm

Cloud tops are definitely cooling now. Also what a wind gust! 180 knots is something.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#966 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sat Sep 25, 2021 6:44 pm

GCANE wrote:Last eye drop recorded 43% RH at 700mb.
Good indication an EWRC maybe forthcoming.

Not likely due to the strength of the eyewall shown in the last microwave imagery.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#967 Postby aspen » Sat Sep 25, 2021 6:45 pm

No sign of a big secondary eyewall on a microwave pass from 20z, so it must be a meld.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#968 Postby DioBrando » Sat Sep 25, 2021 6:45 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
DioBrando wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Sam ranking very highly up there with other powerful MDR storms this evening. My 135 knot, MSLP 945mb guess is looking good.

Like which ones you reckon?


Jose 2017, Hugo 1988, Igor 2010, and others.

Oh wow, those are powerful. I looked at some analog thing and it was throwing out "Gabrielle 1989" as another possible similar storm as well as one from 1996
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#969 Postby kronotsky » Sat Sep 25, 2021 6:45 pm

GCANE wrote:Last eye drop recorded 43% RH at 700mb.
Good indication an EWRC maybe forthcoming.

That's very low for a storm about to undergo EWRC... also I've seen pages and pages of EWRC talk for this storm so far and there's yet to be a single one
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#970 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 25, 2021 6:49 pm

WiscoWx02 wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Ok storm seems to be becoming less symmetrical and cloud top warmth is now persisting. A weakening trend is now imminent though not sure what’s causing it.


I smell an eye wall replacement cycle. Weakening for sure. Will have to see if it can finish this eye wall replacement cycle without pulling a Larry. Actually, does anyone know where the best place to access microwave scans of storm structure are?


There’s no sign of an outer eyewall on recon.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#971 Postby aspen » Sat Sep 25, 2021 6:50 pm

No special advisory so far…they should really do one before observations no longer support 130 kt.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#972 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Sep 25, 2021 6:51 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
WiscoWx02 wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Ok storm seems to be becoming less symmetrical and cloud top warmth is now persisting. A weakening trend is now imminent though not sure what’s causing it.


I smell an eye wall replacement cycle. Weakening for sure. Will have to see if it can finish this eye wall replacement cycle without pulling a Larry. Actually, does anyone know where the best place to access microwave scans of storm structure are?


There’s no sign of an outer eyewall on recon.


I don't see it either, it's likely a wobble that has even caused the eye to be elliptical on IR, it will likely correct itself in the next couple hours or so . . .
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#973 Postby Teban54 » Sat Sep 25, 2021 6:55 pm

aspen wrote:No special advisory so far…they should really do one before observations no longer support 130 kt.

Maybe they're waiting for that SE-NW pass, which will likely be the last pass of this mission.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#974 Postby Teban54 » Sat Sep 25, 2021 6:57 pm

W ring building back again thanks to the recent convective bursts around the eye. Reminds me a bit of Ida before landfall (though without EWRC).
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#975 Postby Ubuntwo » Sat Sep 25, 2021 6:58 pm

Sam's structure is very resilient against ERCs. I think upwelling will weaken it well before any concentric band wraps around this core.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#976 Postby GCANE » Sat Sep 25, 2021 6:58 pm

Radar from Kermit

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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#977 Postby aspen » Sat Sep 25, 2021 7:03 pm

Pressure steady, SFMR up to 140 kt. Sam is either 130 or 135 kt.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#978 Postby Teban54 » Sat Sep 25, 2021 7:07 pm

aspen wrote:Pressure steady, SFMR up to 140 kt. Sam is either 130 or 135 kt.

That SFMR reading might be tossed out due to high bias in SFMR at that magnitude, but still pretty impressive considering it's in the NW quad that was convectively weaker until just now. Maybe the next set of readings will have higher FL winds.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#979 Postby GCANE » Sat Sep 25, 2021 7:12 pm

Eye looking a bit more ragged on IR.
Picking up a few mesovorts.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#980 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Sep 25, 2021 7:12 pm

144 knot SFMR. Doubt the NHC will pull the trigger and upgrade until flight level winds support Category 5.
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