ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

Latest radar from Kermit, about an hour ago

[InfernoFlameCat]

Eye looking a bit more ragged on IR.
Picking up a few mesovorts.

yes, the storm is intensifying again.

[aspen]

Holy that 162kt dropsonde

[GCANE]

Looks like they hit a mesovort.
Check the windspeed at 911mb

[AlphaToOmega]

If I had to estimate the intensity, I would say 942.0 millibars at 130 knots. The minimum central pressure reading was 942.0 knots. Maximum flight-level readings are 139 knots, and maximum SFMR readings are 136 knots. Adjusting the flight-level readings yields 125.1 knots, and averaging the adjusted flight-level estimate with the SFMR estimate yields 130.55 knots.

[weeniepatrol]

. . .

[Ubuntwo]

https://i.imgur.com/vQIZQht.png

Even with reduction, this dropsonde supports 135kt.

[Chris90]

I think that 162kt dropsonde gives a lot of support to the 144kt SFMR. The lowest 46mb of the drop were all winds in the 160-175kt range except for ONE reading at 147kts. That is a thick layer of intense winds. I'm thinking 140-145kt isn't unreasonable.

[Yellow Evan]

If I had to estimate the intensity, I would say 942.0 millibars at 130 knots. The minimum central pressure reading was 942.0 knots. Maximum flight-level readings are 139 knots, and maximum SFMR readings are 136 knots. Adjusting the flight-level readings yields 125.1 knots, and averaging the adjusted flight-level estimate with the SFMR estimate yields 130.55 knots.

Recon also found 144 SFMR and .83 of the 161 knots (boundary layer average) from the dropsonde supports 135 as well. So probably 135.

[Zonacane]

Eye looking a bit more ragged on IR.
Picking up a few mesovorts.

If it devours the mesovorts in the eye we will be looking at a category 5

[tolakram]

[supercane4867]

Like I said before, dropsonde data suggests winds are mixing down to the surface pretty well. It's not impossible that surface winds are just as strong as winds at flight level.

[shah83]

The pressure is slightly high for a storm with such strong winds. Does this suggest that the background pressures are higher than what models show?

[InfernoFlameCat]

. . .

https://i.imgur.com/vQIZQht.png

. . . Is what I am thinking too.

[aspen]

The pressure is slightly high for a storm with such strong winds. Does this suggest that the background pressures are higher than what models show?

Dorian was in the low 940s when recon supported 130-140 kt, so a pressure this high has been seen before with winds of this magnitude.

[AlphaToOmega]

Major Hurricane Sam is now 125 knots.

AL, 18, 2021092600, , BEST, 0, 134N, 487W, 125, 943, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 15, 20, 1013, 120, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SAM, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 038,

[Yellow Evan]

Take back what I said earlier. There isn’t a sustained weakening trend going on.

[supercane4867]

W ring attempts to make a comeback

[aspen]

Major Hurricane Sam is now 125 knots.

AL, 18, 2021092600, , BEST, 0, 134N, 487W, 125, 943, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 15, 20, 1013, 120, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SAM, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 038,

Too low, this is 130-135 kt. Also, why didn’t the NHC do a special advisory?

[Stormybajan]

Major Hurricane Sam is now 125 knots.

AL, 18, 2021092600, , BEST, 0, 134N, 487W, 125, 943, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 15, 20, 1013, 120, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SAM, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 038,

Surely 130 knots though? Thats what I believe the nhc will go with