ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

[abajan]

The pressure is slightly high for a storm with such strong winds. Does this suggest that the background pressures are higher than what models show?

Dorian was in the low 940s when recon supported 130-140 kt, so a pressure this high has been seen before with winds of this magnitude.

I think Sam's small size allows for such high winds with such a high central pressure.

[Iceresistance]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/891482629801652224/c2b80756-220f-4516-b8de-48d29383aa8c.png

Take back what I said earlier. There isn’t a sustained weakening trend going on.

I was about to post the same thing, the CMG has returned with the new Convection . . .

[GCANE]

Eye definitely drying out.
Humidity dropping at 800mb now.

[psyclone]

The pressure is slightly high for a storm with such strong winds. Does this suggest that the background pressures are higher than what models show?

This is a small, tightly knotted storm. that's a huge component. this system reminds me of charley

[IcyTundra]

The pressure is slightly high for a storm with such strong winds. Does this suggest that the background pressures are higher than what models show?

I remember Matthew was 145 kt with a pressure of 942 mb.

[InfernoFlameCat]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/891482629801652224/c2b80756-220f-4516-b8de-48d29383aa8c.png

Take back what I said earlier. There isn’t a sustained weakening trend going on.

I was about to post the same thing, the CMG has returned with the new Convection . . .

This is the second time the storm was "weakening. Sam is really faking me out.

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1441922544794095620




Keep in mind this is not official yet as the Best Track only has Sam up to 125 kts, though I think in reality it's closer to 130 kts. If NHC does indeed go with 125, this has to be the best 125 kts Atlantic system I've ever seen.

[grapealcoholic]

Cloud tops cooling. Here we go

[tolakram]

Clearly continuing to intensify.

[Nimbus]

At least Sam is gaining latitude, might be headed for the weakness Peter will leave.

[aspen]

Assuming no pesky mid-level shear or EWRC interrupt Sam in the next 12-14 hours until that second recon plane arrives, they could find a Category 5. That’s quite a long time Sam would need to remain stable for, though, so I doubt it.

It’s hiccup this morning followed by RI was very similar to Eta. After its eye initially cleared out, it clouded up for a few hours and the CDO became jagged, just like Sam. Afterwards, the eyes of both storms cleared and they intensified to 130-135 kt.

[Iceresistance]

Does it seem like that Sam is trolling Recon like Eta 2020 did?

[KirbyDude25]

Clearly continuing to intensify.

https://i.imgur.com/7d0WVXn.gif

Looks like it finally cooled down those NW cloud tops. This is definitely making a run at Category 5.

[CrazyC83]

I agree that 125 kt is too low based on that data. Blending the data would easily support about 135 kt.

[zzh]

NHC just want to stick to their forecast, they ignored the recon.

[grapealcoholic]

A little WSW jog, interesting

[Sciencerocks]

I'd go 140knt. Smrf 144knt and dropsonde. I like going liberal as it is impossible for a plane to simple all winds within a storm.

[supercane4867]

 https://twitter.com/hwind/status/1441920362405666816

[Nimbus]

A little WSW jog, interesting

Thought it might be trochoidal motion but recon tasking is actually predicting it will be down around 13.1N at 49.7W.

[GCANE]

Recon heading back.
They must have had enough.