ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

[ChrisH-UK]

Sun rise on Sam.

GOES-16 Red band + CIRA Snow/Cloud Source - https://col.st/tbNK0

GOES-16 Red Band + Cloud Top Phase https://col.st/Vri8V

[aspen]

Really? They went 5-10kt below recon estimates and then rescheduled the second recon flight until late this afternoon? Very, very disappointing. Odds are an EWRC will begin before recon arrives.

Edit: found the 11pm discussion. Once again, they’re sus of SFMR, but pointed out the absurdly high dropsondes and the possibility of very strong mesovorts, and said the pressure supports 125 kt with wind-pressure relationships.

[grapealcoholic]

https://i.postimg.cc/1zz0DqwF/image.png

This is absurd structure; looks like a WPAC storm

[kevin]

Just gorgeous:

[aspen]

Just gorgeous:

https://i.imgur.com/LuCoDOY.jpg

If it wasn’t 130 kt earlier, it is now. Sam has kept that full W ring for quite a while now.

Fingers crossed the mid-level dry air is of just the right quantity to kill off the outer bands and postpone an EWRC, without damaging the core itself.

[NDG]

Another picture of such a good looking MH.

[Chemmers]

Look like in the last few hours it has almost been heading due west, hopefully it won’t continue

[aspen]

The small eye has resulted in satellite estimates decreasing. I hope the NHC doesn’t drop this to 120 kt as a result, because when looking at Dvorak imagery, it’s still a T#6.5-6.7 — a complete W ring with an eye that has sometimes reached WMG but remains above 10C. Also, it’s overall structure and core symmetry has improved since last night.

[Owasso]

TXNT24 KNES 261137
TCSNTL

A. 18L (SAM)

B. 26/1131Z

C. 13.8N

D. 50.0W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T6.5/6.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...A WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY WHITE AND EMBEDDED IN BLACK YIELDS A
DT OF 6.5 AFTER AN EYE ADJ OG +1.0. MET IS EQUAL TO 6.5 AND PT IS EQUAL TO
6.0 BASED ON A DEVELOPMENT TREND IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TUGGLE

[Extratropical94]

Crossing 50W at about 13.9N

[NDG]

The impressive lightning show along the western eyewall continues. Recon even reported grauple at 10k feet on last night's mission.

[Fishing]

Look like in the last few hours it has almost been heading due west, hopefully it won’t continue

It almost looks like it’s gone stationary or just barely moving? The insight has changed over the years but is it still the norm that when stationary it’s next move is a direction change?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[aspen]

I’d go with 130kt/941mb for 12z. The NHC is clearly skeptical of last night’s SFMR readings, but given this morning’s improvement in overall structure and the burst in eyewall lightning, it can be reasoned that Sam has gotten a little stronger.

[cycloneye]

I wonder why this gap between the mission last night and the 4 PM one this afternoon. Very vaulable time in this period that Sam is getting a little stronger this morning.

[cycloneye]

The impressive lightning show along the western eyewall continues. Recon even reported grauple at 10k feet on last night's mission.

https://i.imgur.com/Set5RXs.gif

Do you have the link to this image?

[Iceresistance]

Sam is moving more west now on Satellite . . .

[Extratropical94]

Still 125/943

AL, 18, 2021092612, , BEST, 0, 138N, 500W, 125, 943, HU, 34, NEQ, 80, 80, 40, 60, 1013, 120, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SAM, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 038,
AL, 18, 2021092612, , BEST, 0, 138N, 500W, 125, 943, HU, 50, NEQ, 40, 30, 20, 30, 1013, 120, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SAM, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 038,
AL, 18, 2021092612, , BEST, 0, 138N, 500W, 125, 943, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 15, 20, 1013, 120, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SAM, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 038,

[aspen]

12z BT is still 125 kt…it’s almost as if the NHC doesn’t want to go above 125 kt, between this and recon being moved until tonight when an EWRC will almost certainly be starting. At least, I assume an EWRC will start before then; Dorian’s refusal to have one was abnormal and I doubt Sam will follow suit.

Sam will surpass 10 ACE once the 11am advisory comes out.

[kevin]

Sam's eye has further contracted over the last few hours to roughly 6 miles (9 km) based on IR, which definitely fits the pinhole eye description. Contraction seems to have stopped now as Sam is further solidifying its structure and the eye is drying out again. I think that during re-analysis this will definitely be upped to 130 kt instead of 125 kt if NHC follows best track for now. All we can do is hope that it maintains this presentation until recon arrives around 20z.

[Iceresistance]

Has Recon ever made an emergency go into the storm because of it's impressive structure?