ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

Wind Shear is between 10-15 Knots, that is why Sam is trying to smooth out the CDO . . .

[Blown Away]

Recent SW wobble, spectacular hurricane on satellite...

[hipshot]

Crossing 50W at about 13.9N

https://i.imgur.com/THaqkgn.gif

If it is heading WNW you could fool me, sure looks like W to me but I'm not expert by any definition.

[aspen]

Sam's eye has further contracted over the last few hours to roughly 6 miles (9 km) based on IR, which definitely fits the pinhole eye description. Contraction seems to have stopped now as Sam is further solidifying its structure and the eye is drying out again. I think that during re-analysis this will definitely be upped to 130 kt instead of 125 kt if NHC follows best track for now. All we can do is hope that it maintains this presentation until recon arrives around 20z.

https://i.imgur.com/CYfPXsC.jpg

Recon departs at 20z, they won’t arrive until 23z, which means there’ll be an unacceptable 25-hour gap between center fixes. So far it doesn’t seem that this morning’s flight was cancelled/postponed due to technical issues, as that probably would’ve been mentioned in the 5am discussion.

[pgoss11]

Crossing 50W at about 13.9N

https://i.imgur.com/THaqkgn.gif

If it is heading WNW you could fool me, sure looks like W to me but I'm not expert by any definition.

I’ve been looking at that heading too. Definitely due west or even south of due west for a few hours.

[ouragans]

Am I the only one a little unquiet for the Wbound jog?

[GCANE]

This is moving straight west. Not seeing any north component in its trajectory all morning.

[Iceresistance]

Call me crazy, but if Sam manages to somehow make it to the Caribbean, there will be almost absolutely nothing to stop this from reaching a CAT 5, SSTs are 29-30°C, Wind Shear is low up to Hispaniola, OHC gets higher, & there is not much dry air to limit Sam (Even though it's currently limiting the EWRCs for some weird reason)

[ouragans]

9Z position by NHC: 13.8°N 49.7°W
12Z position by best track: 13.8N 50.0W

This is a very slow, straight 270, no doubt

[GCANE]

Looks like an ULL to the NNW is pushing down on it.
CIMSS is showing it being there for some time.
Somehow it didn't get into the models. Wonder why?

[GCANE]

9Z position by NHC: 13.8°N 49.7°W
12Z position by best track: 13.8N 50.0W

This is a very slow, straight 270, no doubt

Latest GFS has really slowed it down.

[GCANE]

Seems like a little WSW move.
Wobble or is CIMSS steering for real?

[Fancy1001]

Looks like an ULL to the NNW is pushing down on it.
CIMSS is showing it being there for some time.
Somehow it didn't get into the models. Wonder why?

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/LXZkX900/wg8dlm5.gif [/url]

What kind of effect do you think this might have on its track

[aspen]

An insane number of lightning strikes in Sam’s western eyewall over the last hour or so. It’s also starting to get that Stadium Effect look to its eye. No way this isn’t intensifying.

[GCANE]

Looks like an ULL to the NNW is pushing down on it.
CIMSS is showing it being there for some time.
Somehow it didn't get into the models. Wonder why?

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/LXZkX900/wg8dlm5.gif [/url]

What kind of effect do you think this might have on its track

I just checked GFS and it looks like the ULL is in now.
I think a couple factors are in play.
1) Strength of the ULL, if stronger than forecast, would push Sam more west.
2) Slow down of Sam's trajectory would upwell more water and weaken it, allowing it to move more west.

Need to watch this closely, could be in for some surprises.

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1442117610431156229

[Iceresistance]

Sams track is literally due west & slowing down, this is giving me Flashbacks on Dorian because of how similar the movement is right now . . . (Due west & slowing down)

[MJGarrison]

Whats a good website that shows projected track overlayed with satellite?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Blown Away]

Looks like an ULL to the NNW is pushing down on it.
CIMSS is showing it being there for some time.
Somehow it didn't get into the models. Wonder why?

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/LXZkX900/wg8dlm5.gif [/url]

What kind of effect do you think this might have on its track

Not much, these slowdowns prior to turns can cause erratic movements. Possibly some westward adjustments may bring Sam closer to Bermuda, but beyond that models seem set on OTS.

[NDG]

The impressive lightning show along the western eyewall continues. Recon even reported grauple at 10k feet on last night's mission.

https://i.imgur.com/Set5RXs.gif

Do you have the link to this image?

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... aw_width=6