ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

[Yellow Evan]

T6.5. WMG eye embedded in B.

[BlowHard]

Can someone with a deep understanding of hurricanes answer this question for me?
I know that Sam is supposed to use the escape hatch (low pressure system) provided by the remnants of Pete to head north and that strong hurricanes naturally try to head north and weak hurricanes are more likely to move west. But knowing all that and also knowing that Sam is a really tall structure (as shown in the cold cloud tops in IR sat loops), I need to understand why the upper level steering currents are not pushing it west? http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.GIF

[Woofde]

Sam is more symmetrical and better balanced than before. The SW quad in particular has really thickened up. This has to be stronger than 125kts right now. Mid level Cat 4s aren't this symmetrical.

I would hate for an EWRC to kick in now and we would never know just how strong. I have a feeling it will happen just because that's the way these storms love to play out with recon.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1442159121181003779




 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1442161906735845378

[skyline385]

Sam is more symmetrical and better balanced than before. The SW quad in particular has really thickened up. This has to be stronger than 125kts right now. Mid level Cat 4s aren't this symmetrical.

I would hate for an EWRC to kick in now and we would never know just how strong. I have a feeling it will happen just because that's the way these storms love to play out with recon.

The MW pass earlier showed no signs of an outer eyewall iirc, just some banding..

[galaxy401]

Sam is a prime example of a MDR storm that we actually don't see that often: A slow-moving storm that takes advantage of the warm waters in that region without any significant dry air. Many MDR storms that are in otherwise a favorable environment don't get that strong here largely due to their fast forward motion.

But a slow-mover like Sam has all the time it wants and can maintain a powerful intensity for a long duration.

[SconnieCane]

Sam faked me out good with that pronounced SSW jog, but it was followed almost immediately by a NNW one that cancelled it out.

[Teban54]

Sam is a prime example of a MDR storm that we actually don't see that often: A slow-moving storm that takes advantage of the warm waters in that region without any significant dry air. Many MDR storms that are in otherwise a favorable environment don't get that strong here largely due to their fast forward motion.

But a slow-mover like Sam has all the time it wants and can maintain a powerful intensity for a long duration.

Even more impressively, it's doing this just south of a SAL plume.

[kevin]

I don't recall such a slow moving MDR major since Dorian (even though it was no longer in the MDR during its slowdown). Do you know any good comparisons. Anyways its slow movement is just fast enough to avoid upwelling and slow enough that in can take full advantage of the high SSTs. A deadly combination, let's hope it stays OTS.

[aspen]

Sam will encounter higher OHC in the next 24-36 hours, but then pass over a cooler pocket on Tuesday that will likely cause it to remain steady or slightly weaken. However, OHC then shoots up on Wednesday. We could see a second peak then.

Also I’m half expecting the NHC’s intensity to be spot-on when recon arrives, even if an EWRC has not started yet.

[LarryWx]

Sam will encounter higher OHC in the next 24-36 hours, but then pass over a cooler pocket on Tuesday that will likely cause it to remain steady or slightly weaken. However, OHC then shoots up on Wednesday. We could see a second peak then.
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2021al18/ohcnfcst/2021al18_ohcnfcst_202109261200.gif
Also I’m half expecting the NHC’s intensity to be spot-on when recon arrives, even if an EWRC has not started yet.

Fwiw, the 12Z UKMET shows exactly that.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 SEP 2021 Time : 155020 UTC
Lat : 14:00:36 N Lon : 50:10:11 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 944.0mb/124.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.6 6.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

Center Temp : +17.1C Cloud Region Temp : -69.5C

Scene Type : EYE

[Zonacane]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 SEP 2021 Time : 155020 UTC
Lat : 14:00:36 N Lon : 50:10:11 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 944.0mb/124.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.6 6.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

Center Temp : +17.1C Cloud Region Temp : -69.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Eye temp is creeping up towards category 5 level.

[WiscoWx02]

By the time recon gets that it will have weakened once again, bet money on it. Just look at the satellite presentation! That flat CDO (didn't have that earlier) and that well defined eye. You would figure it is a category 5 hurricane right now if it wasn't before. I know I sound like a broken record but dang....this is just blowing me away

[kevin]

I guess I'll stay away from this thread for now because the suspense is killing me. I won't look at IR again until recon almost arrives because staring at it every minute for any possible sign of an EWRC is getting unhealthy .

[Hypercane_Kyle]

[Yankee Corn Husker]

Beautiful visible and dvorak presentation with lightning indicating continued intensification. This might even be stronger now than it was at its original peak a few hours before recon arrived yesterday. Besides a possible EWRC (of which there is no sign as of now) I don't think anything else can stop Sam. Low shear, high SSTs, a good structure. And the further west it gets the better the conditions become. Even if it were to experience an EWRC I have no doubt that it would quickly recover.

https://i.imgur.com/llOXous.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/rFw4Rte.jpg

Just how strong is that SW shear? Only 10 kts? The visible and Dvk appearance seem to show Sam's SW Quad getting pancaked. Am I wrong?

[SteveM]

I see an EWRC coming soon-ish. I put it at 135kt now, will recon get there before it starts to weaken? Probably, I think.

[Ubuntwo]

Long loop. Very warm and dry eye.

[SteveM]

I could be mistaken, but it looks like the eye has expanded ever so slightly on IR.