ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

[zhukm29]

In case someone wants some banners or profile images...

[aspen]

So close…the EWRC needs to hold off for just another hour or two.

[tolakram]

[kevin]

Sam's Wring has improved quite a bit over the last hour, much more circular and almost completely smooth now. It looks like we might finally get some recon that is actually timed during a time of improving organization.

1 hour ago


Now

[Zonacane]

ERC is not happening.

[supercane4867]

Unless something unexpected happens, I’m pretty confident that recon will find a 140kt system. Gonna stick to my original prediction.

[CrazyC83]

T7.0 requires at least a shade of CMG, correct?

[supercane4867]

T7.0 requires at least a shade of CMG, correct?

Not really, just a consistent W ring is good enough

[tolakram]

[WiscoWx02]

I have PTSD after Eta last year ngl, another anti-climatic find is more likely than not in my opinion. Still think it peaked earlier with all the lightning in the core.

[DioBrando]

oh boy

 https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1442115359226535941




beautiful shot from a beautiful storm

 https://twitter.com/HRD_AOML_NOAA/status/1442157214542802946

[supercane4867]

Most steadily intense hurricane we've tracked in the MDR since Irma

[supercane4867]

I have PTSD after Eta last year ngl, another anti-climatic find is more likely than not in my opinion. Still think it peaked earlier with all the lightning in the core.

Eyewall lightning is usually a sign of strengthening storm. A maturing system doesn't generate much lightning but that doesn't mean it's weaker. It just shows that intensity has likely plateaued.

[Yellow Evan]

T7.0 requires at least a shade of CMG, correct?

No, just W embedded.5 degree and a WMG eye. But a .5 degree is larger than people think.

[Iceresistance]

When is Recon expected to arrive?

[aspen]

I’m going to guess recon finds ~145 kt FL winds and a borderline Cat 4/5 storm, with a pressure in the mid to low 930s.

[Yellow Evan]

Classic ERC BD signature.

[brad512]

Gonna guess 140kts/935

[galaxy401]

Going to try and be realistic if a little conservative and I'll say 135 kts with 934 pressure.

[ElectricStorm]

Looks to me like an ERC is about to happen. Hopefully recon gets a good pass in before it really feels the effects of the ERC. Unless recon finds something stronger, I'd put the peak at 135kts.
The eye is also wobbling, which is typical of ERC's