ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/891796488680796210/image0.png

Classic ERC BD signature.

Sam has looked like this before & dodged an EWRC, will he be able to do it again?

But his eye is also shrinking, & an EWRC may happen after all . . .

[WiscoWx02]

Recon misses yet again is pretty much set in stone in terms of what we will be saying in a couple hours. Sam degrading fast at this point, will be interesting to see what it does post ERC though with all that warm water, gotta figure it at least holds category 4 intensity for a while. Maybe even try's at category 5 again who knows.

[zhukm29]

Some really exciting passes coming up - would be incredible if recon finds a Cat 5...

Sam's rapid intensification was actually the best of both worlds, for the weather enthusiasts who love seeing storms like these, as well as for residents of the islands since a stronger Sam ended up taking a more northern route. Rooting for Sam to be the very first official Cat 5 fish storm in the satellite era (crossing my fingers that it avoids Bermuda and Canada)

[zhukm29]

It would be pretty devastating if Sam decided to EWRC right now though, especially since the morning recon was cancelled...

[WiscoWx02]

It would be pretty devastating if Sam decided to EWRC right now though, especially since the morning recon was cancelled...

Unfortunately this is very likely the case at this point based off of recent satellite trends and the fact that recon is still an hour or so out. I really want the designation too...not too often you can cheer for these things like this due to lack of land interaction.

[zhukm29]

Here's the latest IR... Sam definitely seems to be degrading relatively quickly at this moment. Looks increasingly likely that we will never know Sam's true peak today, since it's still a while before recon will be able to get there. Still remaining hopeful though, but that cancellation this morning may have been a costly mistake with regards to determining Sam's true intensity.

There is a still a chance Sam could recover later on though.

[KirbyDude25]

If Sam is undergoing an ERC, how small does the outer eyewall look? If it's small, it might be able to recover quickly and get back to its peak strength by the next recon flights.

[ElectricStorm]

Did they ever say why they canceled the earlier recon?

[WiscoWx02]

Would be shocked if they even find winds to support 150 mph at this point, looking worse and worse with every frame

[Iceresistance]

24-Hour Microwave loop

[aspen]

Sam is heading due north now.

[Iceresistance]

Was any legitimate reason given for the cancellation? It's almost as if the NHC people do not want to verify a CAT-5.

I could be totally off my rocker for suggesting such a thing so please shoot this message down if that is the case, but I don't think the NHC upgrades to Cat 5. unless it is an imminent threat. If you look through history what you notice is that nearly every category 5 has made landfall and all the storms that could have been category 5 but were never designated never hit land. I think the reason Lorenzo was upgraded was because that ship went down in it and they were looking for it. Again, I could be totally wrong but since Sam is posing no direct threat to land, why rush, why even bother....doesn't change anything at the end of the day. Still a powerful hurricane.

Edit: lack of data plays a hand, not saying NHC makes up the cat 5 intensity or designates a storm at that intensity just because it will make landfall without data to support it.

My understanding is that CAT 3 and CAT 4 hurricanes that make landfall have their names retired. However, a CAT 5 does not need to make landfall, its name is automatically retired. Perhaps the NHC really likes the name "Sam"

Emily 2005 & Lorenzo 2019 were CAT 5 Storms & never got retired . . .

[DioBrando]

Good night Sam, sleep tight.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Good night Sam, sleep tight.

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/800876865430356021/891804988467183666/unknown.png

Don't let the wind shear bite.

[DioBrando]

Good night Sam, sleep tight.

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/800876865430356021/891804988467183666/unknown.png

Don't let the wind shear bite.

How do you reckon Sam would look like at sunrise?

[aspen]

Depending on how this EWRC goes, Sam could be rapidly intensifying once again tomorrow afternoon or evening. Maybe then we’ll get a properly timed recon flight…or the NHC will decide to cancel it for some reason.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1442247710141296640

[cycloneye]

Plane decends. Here we go.

[ElectricStorm]

Was any legitimate reason given for the cancellation? It's almost as if the NHC people do not want to verify a CAT-5.

I could be totally off my rocker for suggesting such a thing so please shoot this message down if that is the case, but I don't think the NHC upgrades to Cat 5. unless it is an imminent threat. If you look through history what you notice is that nearly every category 5 has made landfall and all the storms that could have been category 5 but were never designated never hit land. I think the reason Lorenzo was upgraded was because that ship went down in it and they were looking for it. Again, I could be totally wrong but since Sam is posing no direct threat to land, why rush, why even bother....doesn't change anything at the end of the day. Still a powerful hurricane.

Edit: lack of data plays a hand, not saying NHC makes up the cat 5 intensity or designates a storm at that intensity just because it will make landfall without data to support it.

My understanding is that CAT 3 and CAT 4 hurricanes that make landfall have their names retired. However, a CAT 5 does not need to make landfall, its name is automatically retired. Perhaps the NHC really likes the name "Sam"

Um... No and no. If a storm is destructive enough, it's name will be retired, no matter what category it is. If isn't destructive enough, it isn't retired, including Cat 5's

[ZipWx]

For all the talk of open Atlantic cat 5's, let us remember Isabel, 2003. Winds to 165mph, annular for whst, three full days, the most amazing pentogram mesovortices in her eye...a re l beauty and beast.