ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

That pass should shut down the cat 5 debate

I admire your optimism

Unfortunately, considering recon both times has managed to catch Sam while its satellite depiction was degrading or already degraded from a visual peak, I feel like this debate will remain raging on.

Seems like this time was more of a result of upwelling than an EWRC at least.

[Iceresistance]

Deep Convection is still firing on the NE Quad, the Eye has also shrunk big time as well . . .

[kevin]

So no double wind maxima, but a contracting eye with degrading IR presentation... Not sure what to make of this. Anyone have an idea?

[Yellow Evan]

That pass should shut down the cat 5 debate

It’s definitely not one now but given the pressure and how fast this apparently completed an ERC, it probably was Category 5 earlier.

[Iceresistance]

So no double wind maxima, but a contracting eye with degrading IR presentation... Not sure what to make of this. Anyone have an idea?

Upwelling or Dry Air, note the SW/W Quad looking terrible . . .

[aspen]

Huh, no double wind maxima. Must be upwelling as posted above.

Assuming that a few mbar of weakening has occurred since Sam’s peak, 933mb supports a peak of 928-930mb, near the maximum possible intensity for Sam’s location.

[tolakram]

So no double wind maxima, but a contracting eye with degrading IR presentation... Not sure what to make of this. Anyone have an idea?

Last time this happened it was a strengthening phase. The best looking hurricanes are in a steady state. It could be something else, but I guessed right last time so I'm going double or nothing.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Ok, I am seeing extreme lower level convection coming up through the storm. Call me crazy but I think this storm is about to explode.

[Yellow Evan]

So no double wind maxima, but a contracting eye with degrading IR presentation... Not sure what to make of this. Anyone have an idea?

A rapidly completed ERC is probably the most plausible explanation, given the eye temperature fluctuations on satellite and the warming of the cloud tops despite no sign of a spike in shear.

[InfernoFlameCat]

So no double wind maxima, but a contracting eye with degrading IR presentation... Not sure what to make of this. Anyone have an idea?

Last time this happened it was a strengthening phase. The best looking hurricanes are in a steady state. It could be something else, but I guessed right last time so I'm going double or nothing.

Glad to see I am not alone!

[InfernoFlameCat]

Dropsonde with pressure of 940mb and 69knots = 933mb storm.

[Yankee Corn Husker]

This is where I read, posted under "Category 5 : https://www.cyclostorm.com/articles/saffirsimpsonscale.html
"Category 5 – 137+ knots (157+ mph; 262+ km/h). Complete roof failure on most buildings. Many buildings destroyed, or structurally damaged beyond repair. Catastrophic storm surge damage. All Category 5 hurricanes’ names are retired, regardless whether they ever make landfall. In the Northwest Pacific, a typhoon that reaches 150 mph (241 km/hr) is called a Super Typhoon. The damage caused by a super typhoon is equivalent to a strong Category 4 or Category 5 hurricane, depending on how strong the typhoon is. Because conditions in the Northwest Pacific favor storm formation throughout most of the year, super typhoons are much more common than Category 5 hurricanes. Every year the Northwest Pacific sees several super typhoons, while the Atlantic might see one Category 5 every few years."

I should have clarified better, for some reason the last tidbit I tried to put into that did not upload. I wasn't talking anything damage related. The moral of what I was saying is that if it is not going to hit land, the NHC is not going to upgrade it to a category 5 based on satellite presentation. If, for whatever reason, there were to be an issue with data and satellite is all we had, then they would be more inclined to upgrade for urgency reason's. Cat 4 and 5 do the same damage but Cat 5 is more of an alarming statement. The JTWC upgrades cat 5's based on satellite all the time but the NHC never does. That's another way to look at what I am saying.

Nothing you said here is true. Please stop posting conjecture as fact.

Is this addressed to me or another poster? Not sure how this all works. Do not desire to offend anybody here. Only posted what I presumed to be a reputable source. Mea Culpa!

[aspen]

Can someone who knows how to use the KCZ method calculate how strong Sam’s winds would’ve been at peak intensity with a pressure of 928-933mb?

Seeing how much deeper Sam is compared to the 5pm advisory, I think a Special Advisory is warranted, but the NHC will either wait for a NE quadrant pass or not do one at all.

[ElectricStorm]

Eye drop supports 929mb

[ThetaE]

Eye dropsonde is 932 mb with 31kt winds. Supports 929mb.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Ida and Sam are now tied as the strongest tc of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

[Yellow Evan]

Eye dropsonde is 932 mb with 31kt winds. Supports 929mb.

CKZ equation supports 927 mbar for Cat 5. Considering the observations yesterday and assuming some fill in even if it wasn’t much, this was probably a Category 5 not too long ago.

[Extratropical94]

117kt instantaneous sfc wind in NW eyewall, 149kts at 500 ft

[Stormybajan]

Does anyone find it interesting Sam is still heading basically north? Its moving away from the warmer waters and deeper OHC to its west, if it wants have to another peak like it did earlier today and yesterday

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks like the recon has stopped transmitting HDOB. Annoying. Still getting dropsonde data.