WiscoWx02 wrote:Eye is almost gone on satellite, convection has eroded. I think Sam is about to kiss goodbye to major hurricane intensity.
This was unexpected, 5 PM advisory called for no less than 110kt through 5 days.
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WiscoWx02 wrote:Eye is almost gone on satellite, convection has eroded. I think Sam is about to kiss goodbye to major hurricane intensity.
Stormybajan wrote:RL3AO wrote:A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Sam this afternoon
and evening found that the major hurricane likely peaked in
intensity at around 135 kt with a central pressure of about 929 mb
between 1900-2200 UTC when the eye contracted down to about 7 nmi in
diameter.
155 mph 929mb peak, much better. How right now im wondering if Sam can even recover from what ever is causing this rapid weakening.
us89 wrote:I'm interested in their reasoning for the 929 mb peak. The first eye dropsonde when recon first got in measured a 932 mb splash pressure with 30kt wind, which correlates to a 929mb central pressure. And that was even after the IR appearance started degrading a bit. Based on that alone I'd have to think the actual pressure minimum was at least a few mb lower a few hours before.
Teban54 wrote:RL3AO wrote:A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Sam this afternoon
and evening found that the major hurricane likely peaked in
intensity at around 135 kt with a central pressure of about 929 mb
between 1900-2200 UTC when the eye contracted down to about 7 nmi in
diameter.
Given that Sam had clearly started weakening when the 929 mb pressure was recorded (as seen from the excellent plot by TheAustinMan), I think there's a pretty good chance its actual peak was stronger than 135/929, based on the assumption that pressure was rising at the time of the first recon pass. At this point it's basically a coin flip whether it did reach 140 kt.
In the past, they extrapolated lowest pressure between recons for Patricia, but not for Eta (IIRC).
Category5Kaiju wrote:Assuming the pressure stayed at 929 mbar, the question of 155 mph vs 160 mph becomes a bit foggy; however, perhaps we could look at the structure of Emily 2005 as her peak was 160/929 but was initially a 155/929 peak for reference to what Sam *could* have been?
TheAustinMan wrote:While the setting sun has some influence on temperatures, the low heat capacity of the ocean tells us that most of these temperature changes will be driven by the storm's actual structure and by extension intensity.
ScottNAtlanta wrote:It already looks like it is recovering. The deep convection has wrapped around the center. Just goes to show that during EWRCs these storms are more vulnerable if something is off. Especially small ones.
Hammy wrote:It knows its coming into more frequent recon range so the inner core decides to fall apart entirely.
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