ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

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aspen
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1481 Postby aspen » Mon Sep 27, 2021 10:10 am

kevin wrote:
aspen wrote:Recon supports a 966mb low-end Cat 3. That’s a 40mb pressure increase in just 12 hours.


I think the degradation was probably even more extreme. I guess this was a 970s high end cat 2 a few hours ago since it's already looking quite a bit better now compared to then.

I agree. This was likely the most extreme non-landfall weakening monitored by the NHC since Hurricane Patricia.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1482 Postby aspen » Mon Sep 27, 2021 10:17 am

Open eyewall on a microwave pass from a few hours ago. Not sure if it has closed by now.
Image
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1483 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Mon Sep 27, 2021 10:26 am

Looks like the combination of a poorly executed EWRC & SW shear really has taken their toll on Sam. 100 knots is a good bet right now, based on recon data.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1484 Postby Teban54 » Mon Sep 27, 2021 10:26 am

aspen wrote:Open eyewall on a microwave pass from a few hours ago. Not sure if it has closed by now.
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2021al18/amsusr89/2021al18_amsusr89_202109271115.gif

Looks like Sam is still struggling to wrap convection to the SE, so I guess not.

Edit: Of course it did exactly that right after I made the post.
Last edited by Teban54 on Mon Sep 27, 2021 10:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1485 Postby ChrisH-UK » Mon Sep 27, 2021 10:38 am

Since the overnight troubles with Sam's eye wall it look like Sam has got it back again. This is a loop of the last 4 hours using the GOES-16 NOAA Optical Depth product, the product is tailored for use with thunderstorms but as you can see it also works real well to reveal a structure inside a cyclone. So here we see Sam rebuilding the eye wall.

Source GOES-16 Optical Cloud Depth https://col.st/uSgeY

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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1486 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 27, 2021 10:39 am

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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1487 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Mon Sep 27, 2021 10:48 am

Sam is probably re-intensifying. What a collapse yesterday! It was like Sam was going for cat 5, got there, and said "Yep Imma kick the bucket now that I got Cat 5".
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1488 Postby Stormybajan » Mon Sep 27, 2021 10:48 am

Sam is definitely trying to recover herself and rebuild the eyewall and eye (atleast it appears so on IR). Wont reach the heights it achieved yesterday again but maybe if it continues on these trends Sam can regain cat 4 status tonight?
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1489 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Mon Sep 27, 2021 10:50 am

Stormybajan wrote:Sam is definitely trying to recover herself and rebuild the eyewall and eye (atleast it appears so on IR). Wont reach the heights it achieved yesterday again but maybe if it continues on these trends Sam can regain cat 4 status tonight?

Sam is a dude name. I think Sam is a cat 3 100 knots right now but I can see him getting to 120 knots again.(mid cat 4).
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1490 Postby aspen » Mon Sep 27, 2021 10:54 am

Pressure down to 962mb. Sam has likely resumed intensification.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1491 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Mon Sep 27, 2021 10:57 am

aspen wrote:Pressure down to 962mb. Sam has likely resumed intensification.

That is pretty rapid intensification. Sam might RI again. Imagine Sam hits Cat 5 after this bout of weakening. #Lorenzo.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1492 Postby aspen » Mon Sep 27, 2021 11:02 am

InfernoFlameCat wrote:
aspen wrote:Pressure down to 962mb. Sam has likely resumed intensification.

That is pretty rapid intensification. Sam might RI again. Imagine Sam hits Cat 5 after this bout of weakening. #Lorenzo.

I was going to mention Lorenzo because it sure looked tonight after its EWRC, but recovered very well. Sam is also recovering well despite a much more significant weakening phase. It is possible it becomes a Cat 5 and recon is there to sample it, as the NHC now says shear should be favorable for the next 4 days while atmospheric moisture will increase on Wednesday.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1493 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 27, 2021 11:06 am

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1442520542343434250


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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1494 Postby aspen » Mon Sep 27, 2021 11:11 am

Oh you’ve gotta be kidding me
Image
Sam’s intensification won’t last for much longer.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1495 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 27, 2021 11:27 am

Plane found enough evidence for a 95kt classification. Looks like it has decided to strengthen this afternoon, though. Small hurricanes can rapidly weaken and strengthen. Probably was down to 85 kts earlier.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1496 Postby zzh » Mon Sep 27, 2021 12:24 pm

Image
Another ERC
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1497 Postby Woofde » Mon Sep 27, 2021 12:28 pm

zzh wrote:Image
Another ERC
I do wonder if the increase in OHC is actually being detrimental giving fuel to the outer bands causing EWRCs.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1498 Postby aspen » Mon Sep 27, 2021 12:33 pm

zzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/3arx8oc.jpg
Another ERC

Both eyewalls have gaps in them, and the inner is connected to the outer. Perhaps that could result in more of a meld? The inner one is still doing well on visible imagery.

Today’s second recon flight is probably about an hour or so away from its first center fix.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1499 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Mon Sep 27, 2021 12:48 pm

Looking better now after a disastrous night. Confident this is at least a 100 knot hurricane now.

Image
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1500 Postby aspen » Mon Sep 27, 2021 1:12 pm

The NW quad is much stronger than in the first flight, with ~100kt FL/SFMR winds.
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