ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1501 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 27, 2021 1:20 pm

957 mbs lowest.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1502 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Mon Sep 27, 2021 1:20 pm

Pressure down to 957mb.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1503 Postby Teban54 » Mon Sep 27, 2021 1:20 pm

NW quad: 102 kt FL, 100 kt SFMR
SE quad: 102 kt FL, 90 kt SFMR
Eye pressure: 957.1 mb (pending dropsonade)

Considering Sam's asymmetrical appearance as well as the SE quad being convectively weak at the time of the recon pass, the FL winds are pretty impressive.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1504 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 27, 2021 1:43 pm

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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1505 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Mon Sep 27, 2021 2:00 pm

Sam is the guy that is flexing, face plants, and gets back up again like nothing happened. Sam is back in business!
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1506 Postby Yankee Corn Husker » Mon Sep 27, 2021 2:01 pm

Teban54 wrote:NW quad: 102 kt FL, 100 kt SFMR
SE quad: 102 kt FL, 90 kt SFMR
Eye pressure: 957.1 mb (pending dropsonade)

Considering Sam's asymmetrical appearance as well as the SE quad being convectively weak at the time of the recon pass, the FL winds are pretty impressive.


I'm betting ol' Sammy is gonna ramp back up to CAT 4 status, considering the warmer SSTs and higher OHC in his projected path. I am also betting that, as he makes that northern arc, he will increase in forward speed, which would lessen the effects of upwelling. Am I wrong? :?:
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1507 Postby aspen » Mon Sep 27, 2021 2:14 pm

The eye is clearing a lot on satellite imagery. Interestingly, while microwave suggested an opening in the SE, recon found an opening in the NW.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1508 Postby grapealcoholic » Mon Sep 27, 2021 2:29 pm

Inner core is stealing all the inflow/momentum now. ERC delayed until further notice
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ATL: SAM - Recon

#1509 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Sep 27, 2021 2:45 pm

Looking pretty solid right now. Eye is clearing out now. Pretty nice recovery considering how fast it weakened last evening.
Last edited by ElectricStorm on Mon Sep 27, 2021 2:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1510 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Sep 27, 2021 2:48 pm

Raw Ts up to 5.8. Eye temp up to +2C
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1511 Postby ChrisH-UK » Mon Sep 27, 2021 2:49 pm

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Re: ATL: SAM - Recon

#1512 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 27, 2021 2:52 pm

Weather Dude wrote:Looking pretty solid right now. Eye is clearing out now. Pretty nice recovery considering how fast it weakened last evening.


Moved this post from recon thread to here.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1513 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 27, 2021 3:01 pm

Next set to reach eye.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1514 Postby grapealcoholic » Mon Sep 27, 2021 3:05 pm

Looks like some kind of meld is occurring with that thick max wind band near the core

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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1515 Postby grapealcoholic » Mon Sep 27, 2021 3:07 pm

The end result of this should be a pretty stable inner core, assuming it can keep firing deep convection
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1516 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Sep 27, 2021 3:11 pm

954.5 MB Extrapolated
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1517 Postby aspen » Mon Sep 27, 2021 3:15 pm

I don’t think this will explode again until Tuesday afternoon into late Wednesday. Sam needs to finish this upcoming EWRC and end up with a single, stable eyewall before it can resume RI, and it’ll pass over an area of lower OHC that’ll keep a bit of a lid on its intensity even if the EWRC is fully complete by then. A scenario like the HMON, when it attains a second peak on Wednesday/Thursday as it passes over another pocket of high OHC, seems likely in my opinion. Shear shouldn’t be an issue for another 48-60 hours. Fingers crossed that good recon coverage persists.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1518 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 27, 2021 3:21 pm

Interesting wind spike to 35 kts in both eye passes. Remnants of an old eyewall? Winds appear to be up from about 90 kts this morning to 95-100 kts now.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1519 Postby grapealcoholic » Mon Sep 27, 2021 3:22 pm

It's already rapidly strengthened today, and now it's taking on a shrimp look. Wouldn't count out more RI
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1520 Postby kevin » Mon Sep 27, 2021 3:34 pm

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