Broad area of low pressure to form over the eastern tropical Atlantic (Is Invest 91L)
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- wxman57
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Re: Broad area of low pressure to form over the eastern tropical Atlantic
I'm not concerned about this one. As for 90L, it should hit a wall of shear before reaching the Caribbean.
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Re: Broad area of low pressure to form over the eastern tropical Atlantic
wxman57 wrote:I'm not concerned about this one. As for 90L, it should hit a wall of shear before reaching the Caribbean.
Ok as for me I should not waste my time with this potential whatever.
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Re: Broad area of low pressure to form over the eastern tropical Atlantic
2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a broad
area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for further development of this disturbance, and a
tropical depression is likely to form in a few days while it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph over the central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for further development of this disturbance, and a
tropical depression is likely to form in a few days while it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph over the central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Broad area of low pressure to form over the eastern tropical Atlantic
12z GFS makes this a hurricane. It will be interesting to know when was the last hurricane by date to form in MDR on late September or early October.
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Re: Broad area of low pressure to form over the eastern tropical Atlantic
Looks like this will be the precursor to the WCar storm on some of the GFS runs and GEFS ensembles, even if it does become strong in the MDR first. I’m guessing it would keep its name if it does get into the WCar and develop after being named in the MDR.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Re: Broad area of low pressure to form over the eastern tropical Atlantic
Very reminiscent of Harvey.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
- SFLcane
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Re: Broad area of low pressure to form over the eastern tropical Atlantic
aspen wrote:Looks like this will be the precursor to the WCar storm on some of the GFS runs and GEFS ensembles, even if it does become strong in the MDR first. I’m guessing it would keep its name if it does get into the WCar and develop after being named in the MDR.
Gfs op has all but abandoned that western Caribbean tc idea.
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Re: Broad area of low pressure to form over the eastern tropical Atlantic
I know Hurricane Hazel formed east of the islands in October of 1954. It hit the Carolinas after moving through Haiti. It was a cat 4 storm when it hit the Carolinas. It was before the Satellite era and from what I have read it could have come across the Atlantic all the way as a wave from Africa. Everyone in our area who remembers Hazel realizes the total devastation along the Carolinas coast and then through central NC all the way up to Canada. Hazel was a once in a life time storm.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Broad area of low pressure to form over the eastern tropical Atlantic
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest
of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for further
development of this disturbance, and a tropical depression is likely
to form in a few of days while it moves westward to
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph over the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for further
development of this disturbance, and a tropical depression is likely
to form in a few of days while it moves westward to
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph over the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
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- cycloneye
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Re: Broad area of low pressure to form over the eastern tropical Atlantic
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest
of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive
for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
during the next day or two while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph over the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive
for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
during the next day or two while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph over the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: Broad area of low pressure to form over the eastern tropical Atlantic
cycloneye wrote:A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest
of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive
for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
during the next day or two while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph over the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
They're taking awfully long to update the graphical outlook page.
It's stuck at the 2 p.m. version.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Broad area of low pressure to form over the eastern tropical Atlantic (Is Invest 91L)
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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