ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

[Michele B]

First visual of Sam today. Still has to clear out the eye on visual, but it's already cleared out on IR. Looks quite healthy. I think ~7 hours from now might be the perfect time for recon to catch Sam at another peak as it'll give the Wring time to fix itself (broken to the NE right now) and the eye time to clear out. Raw T# up to 6.4 btw.

https://i.imgur.com/5hTj1vl.jpg

He's beautiful!

[kevin]

First pass 945.5 mbar with 118 kt FL and 120 kt SFMR. Considering the pressure drop since the previous recon I would assume the strongest quadrant has 120 kt so that would be 946mb/120kt. Despite a less than great IR appearance it looks like Sam is intensifying. If Sam is already this strong now I think there might still be an outside shot for a high-end cat 4 or low-end cat 5 tomorrow when it passes over higher OHC.

[wxman57]

I'm thinking that the data support 110 kts surface wind. The higher SFMR values were flagged as unreliable, with the exception of a 74kt FL and 120kt SFMR wind, which seems unreasonable. NHC will probably keep it 115 kts.

[kevin]

Anyone else who can no longer find Sam as a floater on Tropicaltidbits?

[wxman57]

Anyone else who can no longer find Sam as a floater on Tropicaltidbits?

I see it listed to the right of 90L and 91L.

[kevin]

Anyone else who can no longer find Sam as a floater on Tropicaltidbits?

I see it listed to the right of 90L and 91L.

Yes, it's also back now for me. No idea what happened there, maybe an issue on my side. Thanks.

[cheezyWXguy]

Anyone else who can no longer find Sam as a floater on Tropicaltidbits?

I see it listed to the right of 90L and 91L.

Yes, it's also back now for me. No idea what happened there, maybe an issue on my side. Thanks.

There were some really exciting cumulus clouds over Texas they had to switch to

[Teban54]

First pass 945.5 mbar with 118 kt FL and 120 kt SFMR. Considering the pressure drop since the previous recon I would assume the strongest quadrant has 120 kt so that would be 946mb/120kt. Despite a less than great IR appearance it looks like Sam is intensifying. If Sam is already this strong now I think there might still be an outside shot for a high-end cat 4 or low-end cat 5 tomorrow when it passes over higher OHC.

Are there any plausible explanations why Sam might still be intensifying (and definitely still deepening) even though it looks like crap on IR?

[grapealcoholic]

Think Sam is a good example of why ACE needs to be updated (with wind radii at the very least), its so tiny and is just chilling out there massively inflating the ACE for the season and will end up having much more ACE than even Ida which was a stronger system...

It balances out when you account for the nonlinearity of the kinetic energy calculation -- extreme winds produce significantly more energy than moderate winds

[grapealcoholic]

First pass 945.5 mbar with 118 kt FL and 120 kt SFMR. Considering the pressure drop since the previous recon I would assume the strongest quadrant has 120 kt so that would be 946mb/120kt. Despite a less than great IR appearance it looks like Sam is intensifying. If Sam is already this strong now I think there might still be an outside shot for a high-end cat 4 or low-end cat 5 tomorrow when it passes over higher OHC.

Are there any plausible explanations why Sam might still be intensifying (and definitely still deepening) even though it looks like crap on IR?

Low and mid-levels look good on microwave so inner core pressure is staying low

[Extratropical94]

948/10kts on the center drop, so the pressure is at 947 now.

[grapealcoholic]

Also something about ADT -- it's pretty smart about not jumping the gun to weaken a storm. CI is still at 119 kts

[aspen]

First pass 945.5 mbar with 118 kt FL and 120 kt SFMR. Considering the pressure drop since the previous recon I would assume the strongest quadrant has 120 kt so that would be 946mb/120kt. Despite a less than great IR appearance it looks like Sam is intensifying. If Sam is already this strong now I think there might still be an outside shot for a high-end cat 4 or low-end cat 5 tomorrow when it passes over higher OHC.

Are there any plausible explanations why Sam might still be intensifying (and definitely still deepening) even though it looks like crap on IR?

The current structure is good enough for deepening, but it would appear that Sam’s outflow setup is quite poor, preventing the eye from clearing out. Unless the setup improves in the next 36 hours, this is as strong as Sam’s gonna get.

[zzh]

[Iceresistance]

I see it listed to the right of 90L and 91L.

Yes, it's also back now for me. No idea what happened there, maybe an issue on my side. Thanks.

There were some really exciting cumulus clouds over Texas they had to switch to

WeatherNerds does not need Floaters for Systems, you can zoom to one of them to track . . .

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/zwMphV2.jpg

I’m guessing the weak SE eyewall is an issue too. Must be a bit of shear that got just enough dry air into Sam’s circulation.

[wxman57]

I use RealEarth (SSEC) for satellite data worldwide. Can choose which satellite to use. You can see my preferences in the screenshot below. I have GOES-East True Color selected. The only issue with RealEarth is the looping is a bit clunky.

https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/

[wxman57]

Here's a zoomed-in true color view of Sam using RealEarth:

[Iceresistance]

Does Sam look like an Annular Hurricane on Satellite?