ATL: VICTOR - Remnants - Discussion

[MarioProtVI]

ASCAT got a direct hit at 09Z. Small area of 35 kt and elongated but closed circulation. Most likely they extrapolate improving presentation to go straight to Victor at 11.

[abajan]

Expect cyclogenesis at any time.

Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms continue
to become better organized in association with an area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south of the Cabo
Verde Islands. If the current trends continue, advisories will
likely be initiated on a tropical depression or tropical storm
later today. This system is expected to move west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph over the eastern Atlantic during the next several
days. Additional information on this system, including gale
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo
France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Extratropical94]

I have no idea where they get their inside information from, but RAMMB list TD 20 on their TC page. Usually this means that an official designation will be coming in the next advisory cycle.

AL202021 - Tropical Depression TWENTY

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... eason=2021

[Extratropical94]

And it's official:

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1443216442720092160

[Kazmit]

Soon to be 20 named storms and it's still September.

[kevin]

Soon to be 20 named storms and it's still September.

Remember the talk about a quiet September a while ago... And yes most storms didn't become that powerful (even though I think this one could become quite something), but I think Sam makes up for that.

[ElectricStorm]

I think this one has some potential to overperform. It's already looking decent, should be Victor soon. Definitely should become a hurricane, and there may even be a chance for a major if it gets going quick enough. The window of opportunity is small, but it's still enough time to become a significant system.

[Sciencerocks]

[CyclonicFury]

TXNT25 KNES 291800
TCSNTL

A. 20L (NONAME)

B. 29/1730Z

C. 7.8N

D. 25.7W

E. THREE/MET-11

F. T2.5/2.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...4.5/10 BANDING AROUND THE LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. MET IS
EQUAL TO 1.5 AND PT IS EQUAL TO 2.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TUGGLE

[Owasso]

AL, 20, 2021092918, , BEST, 0, 81N, 251W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 0, 0, 40, 1010, 180, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, VICTOR, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 040,

[Sciencerocks]

[us89]

al202021 VICTOR 20210929 1800 8.1 -25.1 L TS 35 1005

Appears we will have Victor at 5.

[kevin]

al202021 VICTOR 20210929 1800 8.1 -25.1 L TS 35 1005

Appears we will have Victor at 5.

We are now 10 days ahead of 2005 and 15 days behind 2020. Based on that we might realistically end up at the Zeta/Eta equivalent of the auxiliary list (27/28 storms), which would be Foster or Gemma if activity from now on is similar to those seasons.

[bob rulz]

Wow this is a huge system. I love these large WPAC-like disturbances that evolve way out here by the African coast.

[wwizard]

8.1N

That's got to be close to some records, yes?

[galaxy401]

Could get a strong V name out of this. Vince was a minimal hurricane but I could see Victor getting a little stronger than that.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1443316929129713665

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1443317747283152897

[Teban54]

8.1N

That's got to be close to some records, yes?

Here are the southernmost storms at TS strength, as per HURDAT:

1. Three 1902: TS at 7.7N, 30.8W
2. Kirk 2018: TS at 8.1N, 22.9W
2. Victor 2021: TS at 8.1N, 25.1W (as per Best Track, 5pm advisory is further NW)
4. Five 1878: TS at 8.5N, 54.2W
5. Six 1896: TS at 8.7N, 44.2W (MDR hurricane in late October!)
6. Martha 1969: TS at 8.8N, 81.1W (it was previously a hurricane further north, and was actually dipping south and making landfall in Panama!)
7. Ivan 2004: TS at 8.9N 36.5W (this was during a WSW dip as a young TS, formation was further north)

Considering the inaccuracy of pre-satellite data in the open Atlantic, Victor is tied with Kirk 2018 for the southernmost TS in the satellite era, and also the only two TS to form south of 9N in the satellite era. I do remember back in 2018 some people were saying Kirk was classified too early and that its TS status in the eastern Atlantic was questionable, but Victor should be a clear-cut case.

[DioBrando]

 https://twitter.com/JakeCarstens/status/1443315715721793542