ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

[cheezyWXguy]

The Wring is back people. Enjoy it while it lasts because the last 5 times or so that Sam made one it broke within the hour .

https://i.imgur.com/no7uOBf.jpg

One of these may eventually stick, the cdo looks a bit less sheared compared to earlier and the eye is clearing again

[wxman57]

Another plane is nearly there now. Last mission had max FL winds of 110 kts and SFMR near 100 kts on its last two passes through the eye. I suppose that one could argue that the plane didn't necessarily sample the strongest wind, so max winds could have been 105 kts.

[kevin]

Another plane is nearly there now. Last mission had max FL winds of 110 kts and SFMR near 100 kts on its last two passes through the eye. I suppose that one could argue that the plane didn't necessarily sample the strongest wind, so max winds could have been 105 kts.

I have to say, ever since the unfortunate recon in Sam's first and (to date) strongest peak, recon planning and execution into Sam has been fantastic. Especially considering the distance from Sam to locations where recon planes are stationed (which is of course decreasing the further west Sam goes), it's impressive that we've had near-continuous recon coverage of Sam in the last 24 hours.

[SouthDadeFish]

For the NOAA P3 flights, those spirals with the ascent/descent combo are done to sample microphysical processes, preferably in the stratiform precipitation regions of the storm. There is special instrumentation onboard those aircraft to examine such processes. Also keep in mind that the P3's have tail Doppler radar data, which is sent to NHC in quasi-realtime so they have a pretty good idea of the TC structure/wind speed.

[aspen]

Sam is looking far better after just a few hours. Recon might find stronger evidence for a 115-120kt Cat 4.

[skyline385]

Looking at the SFMR and flight winds, is this another double eyewall?

[Sciencerocks]

[wxman57]

Looks like Levi's website just went down, right as the plane was nearing the NW eyewall.

[Extratropical94]

The AF plane turned around before reaching the eyewall, flew back for roughly 10 minutes, and is now heading towards the center again.

[DioBrando]

Agreed, this looks like another meld/EWRC but it's a different one than the one we had about 7-8 hours ago.

The NHC forecast suggests conditions will be favorable for another 36-48 hours or so, meaning Sam will have plenty of time to finish up that meld and become a storm that can be more confidently called a Category 4. This recon flight supports 105-110kt, despite the pressure falling to 949mb.

According to CIMSS’s MPI graphic, Sam’s location through Friday morning can support a 915-925mb storm. SSTs begin to cool off later on Friday.

Yes true, even though I think its window for another T7.0/low-end cat 5 attempt is slowly closing now. It's theoretically still possible as you mention based on MPIs, but if I had to guess now I'd say it's not gonna happen anymore. Either way, it'll probably be one of the biggest ACE storms since 1851: entering the top 10 requires 50.9 ACE points and Sam is forecasted to reach 49.4 points in the next 120 hours so a top 10 position is possible.

Looking back at some historical hurricanes and how much ACE they produced and therefore ranked, Sam would tentatively rank here based on what you said, right?

1899 NOT NAMED 73.5675
2004 IVAN 70.3800
1926 NOT NAMED 67.5925
2017 IRMA 66.1075
1960 DONNA 64.5525
1893 NOT NAMED 63.5250
2003 ISABEL 63.2800
1947 NOT NAMED 62.6025
1957 CARRIE 62.5925
1950 DOG 62.5575
1906 NOT NAMED 55.9700
1966 INEZ 54.5825
1995 LUIS 53.9400
1980 ALLEN 52.2775
1961 ESTHER 52.1550
2016 MATTHEW 50.9400
1878 NOT NAMED 50.7600
1963 FLORA 49.4325
2021 SAM 49.4000
1996 EDOUARD 49.3175
1967 BEULAH 47.9275
1965 BETSY 46.9975

[kevin]

The NHC forecast suggests conditions will be favorable for another 36-48 hours or so, meaning Sam will have plenty of time to finish up that meld and become a storm that can be more confidently called a Category 4. This recon flight supports 105-110kt, despite the pressure falling to 949mb.

According to CIMSS’s MPI graphic, Sam’s location through Friday morning can support a 915-925mb storm. SSTs begin to cool off later on Friday.

Yes true, even though I think its window for another T7.0/low-end cat 5 attempt is slowly closing now. It's theoretically still possible as you mention based on MPIs, but if I had to guess now I'd say it's not gonna happen anymore. Either way, it'll probably be one of the biggest ACE storms since 1851: entering the top 10 requires 50.9 ACE points and Sam is forecasted to reach 49.4 points in the next 120 hours so a top 10 position is possible.

Looking back at some historical hurricanes and how much ACE they produced and therefore ranked, Sam would tentatively rank here based on what you said, right?

1899 NOT NAMED 73.5675
2004 IVAN 70.3800
1926 NOT NAMED 67.5925
2017 IRMA 66.1075
1960 DONNA 64.5525
1893 NOT NAMED 63.5250
2003 ISABEL 63.2800
1947 NOT NAMED 62.6025
1957 CARRIE 62.5925
1950 DOG 62.5575
1906 NOT NAMED 55.9700
1966 INEZ 54.5825
1995 LUIS 53.9400
1980 ALLEN 52.2775
1961 ESTHER 52.1550
2016 MATTHEW 50.9400
1878 NOT NAMED 50.7600
1963 FLORA 49.4325
2021 SAM 49.4000
1996 EDOUARD 49.3175
1967 BEULAH 47.9275
1965 BETSY 46.9975

Yes you're right, the list I was looking at on wikipedia only contained hurricanes since 1950 so my 'since 1851' statement is incorrect and should be 'since 1950'. Thanks for the correction.

[wxman57]

The AF plane turned around before reaching the eyewall, flew back for roughly 10 minutes, and is now heading towards the center again.

Clearly, they saw my post about Levi's Tropical Tidbits website being down and aborted the center pass.

[aspen]

The AF plane turned around before reaching the eyewall, flew back for roughly 10 minutes, and is now heading towards the center again.

Are they still en route?

[Extratropical94]

The AF plane turned around before reaching the eyewall, flew back for roughly 10 minutes, and is now heading towards the center again.

Are they still en route?

Yes, the next two sets of obs should give us new data from the eye and the eyewall.

Edit: make that three. Current set looks odd. Also, they seem to have taken another detour.

[DioBrando]

Yes true, even though I think its window for another T7.0/low-end cat 5 attempt is slowly closing now. It's theoretically still possible as you mention based on MPIs, but if I had to guess now I'd say it's not gonna happen anymore. Either way, it'll probably be one of the biggest ACE storms since 1851: entering the top 10 requires 50.9 ACE points and Sam is forecasted to reach 49.4 points in the next 120 hours so a top 10 position is possible.

Looking back at some historical hurricanes and how much ACE they produced and therefore ranked, Sam would tentatively rank here based on what you said, right?

1899 NOT NAMED 73.5675
2004 IVAN 70.3800
1926 NOT NAMED 67.5925
2017 IRMA 66.1075
1960 DONNA 64.5525
1893 NOT NAMED 63.5250
2003 ISABEL 63.2800
1947 NOT NAMED 62.6025
1957 CARRIE 62.5925
1950 DOG 62.5575
1906 NOT NAMED 55.9700
1966 INEZ 54.5825
1995 LUIS 53.9400
1980 ALLEN 52.2775
1961 ESTHER 52.1550
2016 MATTHEW 50.9400
1878 NOT NAMED 50.7600
1963 FLORA 49.4325
2021 SAM 49.4000
1996 EDOUARD 49.3175
1967 BEULAH 47.9275
1965 BETSY 46.9975

Yes you're right, the list I was looking at on wikipedia only contained hurricanes since 1950 so my 'since 1851' statement is incorrect and should be 'since 1950'. Thanks for the correction.

I just realized how similar Sam and "1996 Edouard" are:

Sam




Edouard

[Extratropical94]

945.6 mb extrapolated on the pass. FL winds inbound 101kt, SFMR 96kt.

[cheezyWXguy]

945.6 mb extrapolated on the pass. FL winds inbound 101kt, SFMR 96kt.

No surprise the pressure is dropping. Vis presentation is the best it’s been since the initial eyewall degradation a few days ago

[tolakram]

TT still really slow but I was able to grab this image

[aspen]

The eye is cooling again…might be a temporary fluctuation, or it might be a sign that the current outflow and shear setup isn’t quite good enough.

[Extratropical94]

Double wind maximum (106kt and 95kt FL) in SE quad.