ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

[tolakram]

SLIDER, since floater is gone for some reason. Classic hurricane look.

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=14295.3291015625&y=6621.19287109375&z=3&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=band_02&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[Teban54]

Double wind maximum (106kt and 95kt FL) in SE quad.

I thought Larry would have solidly been the storm with the most EWRCs that we'll see in a while. Guess Sam wants a shot at every record he can reach.

[aspen]

The outer eyewall actually looks to be the dominant one on a microwave pass from 13z, so the transition could be rather seamless.

[tolakram]

[Extratropical94]

946mb/9kts on the center dropsonde. Supports 945. Extrapolation from the aircraft was spot on

[sikkar]

https://i.imgur.com/6edikxH.gif

Thank you for posting those for every storm, we can't get enough of them mesmerizing loops!

[Woofde]

Double wind maximum (106kt and 95kt FL) in SE quad.

I thought Larry would have solidly been the storm with the most EWRCs that we'll see in a while. Guess Sam wants a shot at every record he can reach.

I have a theory (maybe a wrong one) that it's due to upwelling. The leading outbands are able to grab as much moisture and energy as they would like. By the time the core makes it to the same spot the ocean has been tapped. The outer bands thus get stronger and choke and replace the inner structure, it's cyclical. You wouldn't see this further west in the atlantic because the warm layer runs deeper and upwelling isn't nearly as big of an issue.

I could be completely wrong though, I would love to hear a Mets thought on why this happens.

[wxman57]

Was able to get the raw data file from Levi's page and plotted the first pass, catching the NW and SE quadrants. I also get the recon reports in my email. Looks like winds 95-100 kts in the NW quadrant and 90-95 kts SE quadrant.

[Teban54]

So satellite presentation is at its best since the peak and pressure at the lowest, yet winds are weaker? How the hell did that happen?

(I know the NE quad hasn't been sampled yet, but past recon missions had 110+ kt FL winds from the NW quad.)

[InfernoFlameCat]

So satellite presentation is at its best since the peak and pressure at the lowest, yet winds are weaker? How the hell did that happen?

(I know the NE quad hasn't been sampled yet, but past recon missions had 110+ kt FL winds from the NW quad.)

It is most likely due to the EWRC. The pressure is not taking a hit but the winds sure are.

[Extratropical94]

So satellite presentation is at its best since the peak and pressure at the lowest, yet winds are weaker? How the hell did that happen?

(I know the NE quad hasn't been sampled yet, but past recon missions had 110+ kt FL winds from the NW quad.)

The wind field is much broader/more spread out and the pressure gradient is weaker than during the early peaks. Thus a lower central pressure is needed to sustain the same maximum wind speed.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Based on recon data, I'd place Sam at 105 knots right now.

NHC will probably keep it 115 knots though.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Based on recon data, I'd place Sam at 105 knots right now.

NHC will probably keep it 115 knots though.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/dynamic/GOES171020212727TdU9I.jpg

Regardless it is a beautiful storm. Incredible.

[aspen]

Based on recon data, I'd place Sam at 105 knots right now.

NHC will probably keep it 115 knots though.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/dynamic/GOES171020212727TdU9I.jpg

Post-season analysis will likely knock down Sam’s intensity before and after yesterday’s unambiguous Cat 4 peak to 105-110kt. It still has a chance to become a Cat 4 again, maybe even get above 120 kt once the inner core is sorted out.

[wxman57]

Recon is approaching the NE eyewall now. So far, 100 kts FL and 79 kts SFMR. Next report should have the eyewall passage.

[Owasso]

130kt FL, 941.6mb

[wxman57]

Strong FL wind but about 100 kts SFMR:

[kevin]

130kt FL, 941.6mb

Wow the first winds in a while that would actually support a 115-120kt intensity. I think one of the next recon missions could be our last shot to see Sam at a late peak. He just cracked raw T# 6.0 btw according to CIMSS.