ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

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aspen
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1741 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 29, 2021 2:58 pm

grapealcoholic wrote:Eye has been warming, so I would guess the ERC is close to finishing

I don’t think so. The new eye will be bigger than this. Convection around the old eye has warmed, so we might start seeing a larger eye get carved out of it. Hopefully this excellent UL setup persists through tomorrow and allows Sam to have one last burst of intensification once the EWRC is done.

Update: look at the 1955z IR frame on Tropical Tidbits. A gap is opening up in the innermost part of the CDO, signaling that the larger eye is starting to clear
Last edited by aspen on Wed Sep 29, 2021 3:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1742 Postby us89 » Wed Sep 29, 2021 3:04 pm

Regarding the talk of how long this has lasted as a major hurricane... I would not be surprised if post-season analysis brings it below major status for a bit after its first big EWRC (the one that happened right as recon was getting in). If that maintained cat 3 intensity throughout, it was one of the ugliest cat 3s I've ever seen on satellite.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1743 Postby kevin » Wed Sep 29, 2021 3:07 pm

us89 wrote:Regarding the talk of how long this has lasted as a major hurricane... I would not be surprised if post-season analysis brings it below major status for a bit after its first big EWRC (the one that happened right as recon was getting in). If that maintained cat 3 intensity throughout, it was one of the ugliest cat 3s I've ever seen on satellite.


Yeah indeed, I mentioned that as well. Just looked at the dvorak numbers and they went down to 972mb/90kt after the EWRC and I think that might be quite accurate. Post-analysis will figure it to be certain, but I wouldn't be surprised if we see the initial peak raised to 140 kt but the dip afterwards lowered to 95 or 90 kt.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1744 Postby Owasso » Wed Sep 29, 2021 3:08 pm

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Recon is up.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1745 Postby grapealcoholic » Wed Sep 29, 2021 3:18 pm

aspen wrote:
grapealcoholic wrote:Eye has been warming, so I would guess the ERC is close to finishing

I don’t think so. The new eye will be bigger than this. Convection around the old eye has warmed, so we might start seeing a larger eye get carved out of it. Hopefully this excellent UL setup persists through tomorrow and allows Sam to have one last burst of intensification once the EWRC is done.

Update: look at the 1955z IR frame on Tropical Tidbits. A gap is opening up in the innermost part of the CDO, signaling that the larger eye is starting to clear

We'll see. Convection is building back in on the NW side
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1746 Postby FireRat » Wed Sep 29, 2021 3:29 pm

Sam has been such a nice storm to track, so nice to see such a beast that isn't wrecking someone's town! Sam is well on its way to being a low end Cat 5 imo. Reminds me of Igor from 2010
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ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1747 Postby skyline385 » Wed Sep 29, 2021 3:36 pm

Kinda funny how the CDO is cooling off again just as recon took off lol, at this point Sam is just messing with everyone...
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1748 Postby Owasso » Wed Sep 29, 2021 3:40 pm

Image

Very nice structure.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1749 Postby grapealcoholic » Wed Sep 29, 2021 3:47 pm

Owasso wrote:https://i.postimg.cc/43Srfs2q/20210929.png

Very nice structure.

There's a secondary eyewall but it looks much weaker than the inner core. We'll see what happens
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1750 Postby Owasso » Wed Sep 29, 2021 3:55 pm

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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1751 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Sep 29, 2021 4:06 pm


There’s either something I’m not getting, or that inner eyewall on satellite only exists at the upper levels. Because it looks to be going through a pretty textbook Erc right now.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1752 Postby DioBrando » Wed Sep 29, 2021 4:29 pm

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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1753 Postby grapealcoholic » Wed Sep 29, 2021 4:33 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:

There’s either something I’m not getting, or that inner eyewall on satellite only exists at the upper levels. Because it looks to be going through a pretty textbook Erc right now.

That inner core convection right now is legit. Seems to have finished up the ERC
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1754 Postby Ubuntwo » Wed Sep 29, 2021 4:37 pm

grapealcoholic wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:

There’s either something I’m not getting, or that inner eyewall on satellite only exists at the upper levels. Because it looks to be going through a pretty textbook Erc right now.

That inner core convection right now is legit. Seems to have finished up the ERC

That's what cheezy is referring to. Two convective bands separated by a moat suggest the ERC is still a work in progress.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1755 Postby Ubuntwo » Wed Sep 29, 2021 4:41 pm

111kt SFMR and 121kt FL in the SE quad. Better mixing now. Pressure 941.9
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1756 Postby Owasso » Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:00 pm

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Dropsonde backs up 942mb.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1757 Postby grapealcoholic » Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:02 pm

942 storms don't play around. It knows what's its doing regarding the ERC
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1758 Postby Ubuntwo » Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:05 pm

VDM out with a closed 25 nm eye. Looks like the inner eyewall only remains in the upper levels as cheezywxguy suggested, almost no trace in the wind profile. All looks good for deepening tonight.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1759 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:13 pm

Ubuntwo wrote:VDM out with a closed 25 nm eye. Looks like the inner eyewall only remains in the upper levels as cheezywxguy suggested, almost no trace in the wind profile. All looks good for deepening tonight.

Maybe a Cat 5 is on the table then. The latest NHC advisory keeps its peak until late Thursday, so conditions look favorable for intensification for the next 30-36 hours. It won’t take any crazy deepening for Sam to get back into the 920s since it’s already at 942mb.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1760 Postby Teban54 » Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:18 pm

aspen wrote:Maybe a Cat 5 is on the table then. The latest NHC advisory keeps its peak until late Thursday, so conditions look favorable for intensification for the next 30-36 hours. It won’t take any crazy deepening for Sam to get back into the 920s since it’s already at 942mb.

Off-topic, but I'm having a hard time getting used to your new avatar :lol: That will happen eventually, though.
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