ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

[InfernoFlameCat]

Recon got 130 kt winds at flight level, willing to bet Sam weakened last night but is likely restrengthening given IR and visible satellite imagery. Next couple of passes may come out stronger.

They may have not flown through peak fl winds yet.

[Extratropical94]

941 / 7kt on the center drop

[grapealcoholic]

NW quad probably has 150+ FL winds

[Iceresistance]

Next Update will show the NE Eyewall winds . . . Even though it's at 131 Knots FL right now . . .

[WiscoWx02]

Recon got 130 kt winds at flight level, willing to bet Sam weakened last night but is likely restrengthening given IR and visible satellite imagery. Next couple of passes may come out stronger.

They may have not flown through peak fl winds yet.

That's what I'm thinking, don't think they just clocked the strongest winds they will see during this flight. Pressure is probably gonna drop too on the next pass or two depending on how many they do given the cooling cloud tops surrounding the eye.

[aspen]

941 / 7kt on the center drop

Strange that the pressure has actually risen despite an improvement in structure. Maybe Sam did briefly weaken earlier this morning.

[grapealcoholic]

941 / 7kt on the center drop

Strange that the pressure has actually risen despite an improvement in structure. Maybe Sam did briefly weaken earlier this morning.

The FL wind graph is a little weird; almost looks like there's some eyewall meld occurring right now

[WiscoWx02]

941 / 7kt on the center drop

Strange that the pressure has actually risen despite an improvement in structure. Maybe Sam did briefly weaken earlier this morning.

The FL wind graph is a little weird; almost looks like there's some eyewall meld occurring right now

Is that why those 130 kt winds go so far out? I mean, that's a pretty large area of 130 kt winds, guess I didn't realize how big this thing really was until now.

[ElectricStorm]

Hurricane Sam Intermediate Advisory Number 32A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021
200 PM AST Thu Sep 30 2021

...SAM MAINTAINING CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY...
...EXPECTED TO BRING DANGEROUS HIGH SURF TO A LARGE PORTION OF THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORELINE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 60.5W
ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES

[grapealcoholic]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1443636668301561856

[Yellow Evan]

B thickening with some W apparent.

[Teban54]

941 / 7kt on the center drop

Strange that the pressure has actually risen despite an improvement in structure. Maybe Sam did briefly weaken earlier this morning.

I think Sam's current presentation is actually better than last recon though (there was definitely a degradation inbetween), surprised to see it isn't at least as strong and intense as the last mission. Maybe due to the eyewall meld that people were talking about?

[kevin]

Still not very convicing, but this is Sam's first real attempt to make something resembling a Wring. Let's see how this develops over the next few hours. In the best case scenario the Wring is successful and will remain in place for the next recon (in roughly 11 hours) to measure it. At least Dvorak likes it, raw T# at 6.2 which is the highest value in more than 2 days.

[aspen]

NW to SE pass coming up.

[Statmospheric]

Current intensity makes a lot of sense. Don't see a lot of cat 5s (or near cat 5s) that don't have (nearly) perfectly symmetrical eyes. Albeit I do understand some of the current appearance is due to mesovortecies.

[kevin]

Eye temp up to +13.3C and raw T# at 6.3. Recon in the middle of doing a NW to SE pass.

[Extratropical94]

6984 02606 +169 -> 939.8mb
6973 02601 +165 -> 938.2mb
6957 02623 +161 -> 938.7mb
6970 02601 +153 -> 938.9mb
6972 02606 +142 -> 940.7mb
6982 02593 +140 -> 940.9mb
6982 02593 +143 -> 940.6mb
6967 02606 +147 -> 939.6mb
6959 02620 +157 -> 939.0mb
6957 02620 +164 -> 938.1mb
6967 02610 +169 -> 937.9mb
6970 02615 +167 -> 939.1mb
6970 02626 +181 -> 938.9mb

[cheezyWXguy]

Looks like the latest dropsonde splashed down at 938mb, no wind

[aspen]

So far there isn’t enough to justify 125 kt.

[grapealcoholic]

Current intensity makes a lot of sense. Don't see a lot of cat 5s (or near cat 5s) that don't have (nearly) perfectly symmetrical eyes. Albeit I do understand some of the current appearance is due to mesovortecies.

Also extremely rare for a storm to get back to Cat 5 after it initially peaks