ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

[InfernoFlameCat]

There are clouds literally going into the eye of the storm like a waterfall. I am pretty sure this is rain but I have never noticed this before. I was zoomed in on floater visible red.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Current intensity makes a lot of sense. Don't see a lot of cat 5s (or near cat 5s) that don't have (nearly) perfectly symmetrical eyes. Albeit I do understand some of the current appearance is due to mesovortecies.

Also extremely rare for a storm to get back to Cat 5 after it initially peaks

Irma proceeds to glare at you. Yes it is though very hard.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Looks like the latest dropsonde splashed down at 938mb, no wind

Data is missing from the dropsonde at the surface for winds but judging that at 935mb 11knots of wind was present I would assume that >5 knots was present at the splash down at 938mb making this system 937mb IMO.

[cheezyWXguy]

Looks like the latest dropsonde splashed down at 938mb, no wind

Data is missing from the dropsonde at the surface for winds but judging that at 935mb 11knots of wind was present I would assume that >5 knots was present at the splash down at 938mb making this system 937mb IMO.

I just saw that data as well on TT, but if I toggle back to drop number 7, it shows the 938 splash. Then if I try to go back to the 935 one, it doesn’t show up anymore…

[kevin]

Weird that recon so far hasn't found FL winds similar to the previous flight. I guess Sam must've weakened a bit in between flights. Maybe the next recon can catch Sam at his late peak, but I think that'll be our last chance since after then I can't imagine that Sam can stay a (high-end) cat 4 for much longer.

[Sciencerocks]

[Iceresistance]

Looks like the latest dropsonde splashed down at 938mb, no wind

The wind measurements stopped a little further up

[aspen]

Weird that recon so far hasn't found FL winds similar to the previous flight. I guess Sam must've weakened a bit in between flights. Maybe the next recon can catch Sam at his late peak, but I think that'll be our last chance since after then I can't imagine that Sam can stay a (high-end) cat 4 for much longer.

When is the next recon flight? Another 12 hours, correct?

[kevin]

Weird that recon so far hasn't found FL winds similar to the previous flight. I guess Sam must've weakened a bit in between flights. Maybe the next recon can catch Sam at his late peak, but I think that'll be our last chance since after then I can't imagine that Sam can stay a (high-end) cat 4 for much longer.

When is the next recon flight? Another 12 hours, correct?

Yes departure at 04z and arrival at 06z, so that's about 10 hours from now (12 hours from when this recon mission arrived).

[Fancy1001]

The eyes looking good.

[aspen]

Weird that recon so far hasn't found FL winds similar to the previous flight. I guess Sam must've weakened a bit in between flights. Maybe the next recon can catch Sam at his late peak, but I think that'll be our last chance since after then I can't imagine that Sam can stay a (high-end) cat 4 for much longer.

When is the next recon flight? Another 12 hours, correct?

Yes departure at 04z and arrival at 06z, so that's about 10 hours from now (12 hours from when this recon mission arrived).

Hopefully that’s not long enough for Sam’s eyewall to suddenly collapse and it weakens 40 kt lol

[AnnularCane]

Current intensity makes a lot of sense. Don't see a lot of cat 5s (or near cat 5s) that don't have (nearly) perfectly symmetrical eyes. Albeit I do understand some of the current appearance is due to mesovortecies.

Also extremely rare for a storm to get back to Cat 5 after it initially peaks

Irma proceeds to glare at you. Yes it is though very hard.

Irma should be proud of that. She's accomplished something very few if any hurricanes have managed to do.

[Zonacane]

Current intensity makes a lot of sense. Don't see a lot of cat 5s (or near cat 5s) that don't have (nearly) perfectly symmetrical eyes. Albeit I do understand some of the current appearance is due to mesovortecies.

Also extremely rare for a storm to get back to Cat 5 after it initially peaks

Ivan: Am I a joke to you?

[Iceresistance]

Current intensity makes a lot of sense. Don't see a lot of cat 5s (or near cat 5s) that don't have (nearly) perfectly symmetrical eyes. Albeit I do understand some of the current appearance is due to mesovortecies.

Also extremely rare for a storm to get back to Cat 5 after it initially peaks

Ivan: Am I a joke to you?

Off-Topic: Hurricane Allen in 1980 reached CAT 5 Intensity 3 Separate Times

On-Topic: I hope that Recon makes it to Sam before the Maximum Potential Intensity Limit is reached . . .

[kevin]

As much as I hope that Sam can still make it, I don't think he'll attain cat 5 winds the coming days. Maybe 130 kt, but not more than that probably. I'd love to be proven wrong though. Either way it doesn't make Sam a less impressive storm, it's still one of the biggest ACE storms (at least since I've started tracking). I know it's only been like 9 days, but logging onto Storm2k and checking on Sam almost feels like a habit now. Not sure what I'll do when Sam is gone .

[grapealcoholic]

Honestly feel like its a couple big CB wraps away from Cat 5. Maybe DMAX will do the trick

[aspen]

Roughly 7 hours until recon arrives, and Sam looks the best he’s been in days. The CDO is much smoother and the eye is decently warm. It could be around 130-135 kt by 06z tomorrow.

[Teban54]

Roughly 7 hours until recon arrives, and Sam looks the best he’s been in days. The CDO is much smoother and the eye is decently warm. It could be around 130-135 kt by 06z tomorrow.

I was always bothered by the ragged eye ever since its first peak. The eye is definitely at its best since then. Convection is very warm though, let's see if Dmax does the trick.

[aspen]

Roughly 7 hours until recon arrives, and Sam looks the best he’s been in days. The CDO is much smoother and the eye is decently warm. It could be around 130-135 kt by 06z tomorrow.

I was always bothered by the ragged eye ever since its first peak. The eye is definitely at its best since then. Convection is very warm though, let's see if Dmax does the trick.

Dorian: *laughs in 160 kt with a B ring*

Sam will be over SSTs capable of supporting a sub-930mb storm for the next ~10 hours, so Dmax might indeed do the trick.

[Category5Kaiju]

Sam may be a fish storm, but look at this cool ass video!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uQM_03zuSAI