kevin wrote:us89 wrote:al202021 VICTOR 20210929 1800 8.1 -25.1 L TS 35 1005
Appears we will have Victor at 5.
We are now 10 days ahead of 2005 and 15 days behind 2020. Based on that we might realistically end up at the Zeta/Eta equivalent of the auxiliary list (27/28 storms), which would be Foster or Gemma if activity from now on is similar to those seasons.
I doubt we will see the insane activity we saw late season last year, that was at least partly driven by a moderate/strong La Nina optimising atmospheric conditions across the Caribbean Sea/Gulf. I'm not sure if we get a La Nina this autumn that it will be as strong and as influential on the Caribbean activity as last year.
Having said that, I have just realised we only have one more conventional name left on the list. I'm sure all these weak short lived storms that are picked up far more frequently than in the past with better instrumentation is the reason we get more seasons with very high storm counts these days.