ARB: SHAHEEN (Gulab) - Post-Tropical

[Sciencerocks]

[shah83]

Today's 18z HWRF was absolutely epic. Would be a multiple tens of billions of dollars disaster if it happened like that.

Muscat, AbuDhabi, Qatar/Bahrain(especially that Cyclone Tracy style hit) all gets blasted, while all them shallow sea Persian Gulf gas facilities gets waves I'm preeetty sure they are entirely unused to.

[doomhaMwx]

Today's 18z HWRF was absolutely epic. Would be a multiple tens of billions of dollars disaster if it happened like that.

Muscat, AbuDhabi, Qatar/Bahrain(especially that Cyclone Tracy style hit) all gets blasted, while all them shallow sea Persian Gulf gas facilities gets waves I'm preeetty sure they are entirely unused to.

Historic





The HWRF has basically modelled a grey swan (or black swan) tropical cyclone.

[Subtrop]

The Deep Depression over northeast Arabian Sea off Gujarat coast moved
west-northwestwards with a speed of about 25 kmph, during past 6 hours, intensified
into a Cyclonic Storm ‘Shaheen’ and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 01st
October, 2021, near latitude 23.2°N and longitude 65.3°E, about 400 km westnorthwest of Devbhoomi Dwarka (Gujarat), 260 km south-southwest of Karachi
(Pakistan) and 530 km east-southeast of Chabahar Port (Iran).
It is very likely to further intensify into a Severe Cyclonic Storm during the next
24 hours and move west-northwestwards during next 36 hours. Thereafter it is likely to
re-curve west-southwestwards skirting Makran coast, move towards Oman coast
across Gulf of Oman and weaken gradually.

[mrbagyo]

Sorry for the juddery loop - IMD's satellite page still needs some tweaking

[ElectricStorm]

Now forecast to peak as a Cat 1 on the newest JTWC advisory.

So I guess this is Shaheen now? Or is is officially Gulab-Shaheen? IMD is weird sometimes

[Sciencerocks]

[mrbagyo]

Meteosat

[doomhaMwx]

03B GULAB 211001 0600 23.0N 64.3E IO 50 988

Already building an eye/inner core.





There's still a notable spread among model tracks for the next 24-48hrs. ECMWF, being the northern outlier, shows possible landfall near the Iran-Pakistan border before turning WSW towards Oman.

[mrbagyo]

[ElectricStorm]

03B GULAB 211001 1200 23.3N 63.6E IO 60 982

[mrbagyo]

[mrbagyo]

sun down

[doomhaMwx]

 https://twitter.com/Indiametdept/status/1443951837044899847

[Teban54]

Meteosat
https://i.imgur.com/lOyQKqi.gif

Is that a landcane to the east?

[ChrisH-UK]

Today's 18z HWRF was absolutely epic. Would be a multiple tens of billions of dollars disaster if it happened like that.

Muscat, AbuDhabi, Qatar/Bahrain(especially that Cyclone Tracy style hit) all gets blasted, while all them shallow sea Persian Gulf gas facilities gets waves I'm preeetty sure they are entirely unused to.

Historic

The HWRF has basically modelled a grey swan (or black swan) tropical cyclone.

Yep a tropical cyclone in the gulf would be a bad situation.

The paper is this one - Grey swan tropical cyclones by Ning Lin and Kerry Emanuel

[Sciencerocks]

I think this could ride up the gulf That would be historic! A lot of super hot water to tap into.

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

Makes landfall and ends up about 60-70 miles south of being in the perisan gulf. WE'll see if we can have history or not.

[shah83]

Sohar gets the southern eyewall of a major?, Al Ain gets whacked, and Abu Dhabi gets hit hardest of these HWRF run to date, with direct TS conditions. In Gulf, but only gets sand lizards and some random petroleum engineer this run in Qatar and KSA.