ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

[ChrisH-UK]

Here is a close up on Sam's eye using GOES-16 Veggie Band and Optical Depth, a 2 hour loop. You can see the detail in the eye and on the north west of the eye there is a lot of convection, the redder area of the eye. You can see it sucking up water vapour along the edge of they and causing vortices in the eye, I wonder if this feature is causing the winds to be much stronger in the north west rather than the north east.

[aspen]

Recon is already at 25.7N, just under 3 degrees south of Sam’s eye. The first center pass is probably less than an hour and a half away.

[kevin]

We could get some amazing images of Sam's eye from recon. This is the best eye presentation since Sam's first peak.

[grapealcoholic]

Likely very close to Cat 5 now. It still has time to get there before recon arrives

[kevin]

Sam's CDO has become much smoother and more symmetrical over the last few hours. Compare this image from a few minutes ago and 2 hours ago. Not sure how strong Sam really is, but whatever it is it looks like recon is arriving at the perfect moment.

2 hours ago:


Now:

[aspen]

Sam's eye continues to dry out and clear. Like kevin said, recon is arriving at the perfect time. This legit looks like it could be a Cat 5.

[grapealcoholic]

I would be shocked if this isn't a Cat 5

[HurricaneEnzo]

Doubt it's a cat 5. Convection isn't that cold probably not mixing down winds efficiently. Probably 125-130kts max. Never know though.

[kevin]

I think it's just shy of a cat 5 (130kt - 135kt), but just in case here are the northernmost cat 5s on record since 1851. Sam is now above 28N.

30.3N / Camille / 1969
30.0N / Michael / 2018
27.5N / Bahamas / 1932
27.2N / Katrina / 2005
26.6N / Dorian / 2019
25.9N / Beulah / 1967
25.8N / New England / 1938
25.7N / Labor Day / 1935
25.5N / Andrew / 1992
25.2N / Allen / 1980
25.2N / Rita / 2005

[AxaltaRacing24]

One of these is a 130 kt cat 4, the other one a 160 kt cat 5. If you didn't know which storms they are I can imagine you might accidentally assign the intensity the wrong way around. Sam is another case more similar to Dorian where the intensity outperforms the IR based estimates.

https://i.imgur.com/QujGHTa.png

https://i.imgur.com/26RhFle.jpg

Nah. Even with warmer convection, you can tell Dorian is a beast. Look at how dense the convection in the core is, and look at the perfect circular eyewall.

[Statmospheric]

I think it's just shy of a cat 5 (130kt - 135kt), but just in case here are the northernmost cat 5s on record since 1851. Sam is now above 28N.

30.3N / Camille / 1969
30.0N / Michael / 2018
27.5N / Bahamas / 1932
27.2N / Katrina / 2005
26.6N / Dorian / 2019
25.9N / Beulah / 1967
25.8N / New England / 1938
25.7N / Labor Day / 1935
25.5N / Andrew / 1992
25.2N / Allen / 1980
25.2N / Rita / 2005

I agree. Eye still looks not quite perfectly symmetrical and bigger storms have a harder time reaching cat 5

[ElectricStorm]

I think it's around 130-135kts but either way it's a beast of a storm

[grapealcoholic]

One of these is a 130 kt cat 4, the other one a 160 kt cat 5. If you didn't know which storms they are I can imagine you might accidentally assign the intensity the wrong way around. Sam is another case more similar to Dorian where the intensity outperforms the IR based estimates.

https://i.imgur.com/QujGHTa.png

https://i.imgur.com/26RhFle.jpg

Nah. Even with warmer convection, you can tell Dorian is a beast. Look at how dense the convection in the core is, and look at the perfect circular eyewall.

That eyewall in Dorian is just absurd

[Iceresistance]

One of these is a 130 kt cat 4, the other one a 160 kt cat 5. If you didn't know which storms they are I can imagine you might accidentally assign the intensity the wrong way around. Sam is another case more similar to Dorian where the intensity outperforms the IR based estimates.

https://i.imgur.com/QujGHTa.png

https://i.imgur.com/26RhFle.jpg

Nah. Even with warmer convection, you can tell Dorian is a beast. Look at how dense the convection in the core is, and look at the perfect circular eyewall.

That eyewall in Dorian is just absurd

I remembered tracking Dorian, he had not a single EWRC for days combined with a very stable structure, which is INSANE for a Powerful storm . . .

[kevin]

Nah. Even with warmer convection, you can tell Dorian is a beast. Look at how dense the convection in the core is, and look at the perfect circular eyewall.

That eyewall in Dorian is just absurd

I remembered tracking Dorian, he had not a single EWRC for days combined with a very stable structure, which is INSANE for a Powerful storm . . .

Yeah, Dorian's stability and subsequent stall might still be the most insane thing I've seen in the Atlantic since I started tracking in 2016 (together with Irma probably).

[Iceresistance]

That eyewall in Dorian is just absurd

I remembered tracking Dorian, he had not a single EWRC for days combined with a very stable structure, which is INSANE for a Powerful storm . . .

Yeah, Dorian's stability and subsequent stall might still be the most insane thing I've seen in the Atlantic since I started tracking in 2016 (together with Irma probably).

Off-Topic: I've never seen a storm do something like this before, I nicknamed Dorian 'The Defying Dorian that will never Die!"

On-Topic: Recon is inside the Eye of Hurricane Sam, lowest Extrapolated Pressure I can find is 939.3 MB

[ElectricStorm]

939mb extrap

[Owasso]

939.3 extrap.

What a baffling storm to track.

[ElectricStorm]

SW quad weaker than last night. 125kt FL compared to 134kt FL last night