2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[LarryWx]

GEFS Seems like convective bias to me. Nothing else has anything.

It might very well be. But La Nina climo combined with very warm W Caribbean and a classic "Ridge over Troubled Waters" pattern says the GEFS may be onto something:

[emeraldislenc]

I think we always have to worry about October. I think too many people are thinking "season over." I think we will have some U.S. threats in October!

[CyclonicFury]

I think we always have to worry about October. I think too many people are thinking "season over." I think we will have some U.S. threats in October!

A lot of people are too quick to write off the season when they see a modeled cold front.

[AutoPenalti]

I think we always have to worry about October. I think too many people are thinking "season over." I think we will have some U.S. threats in October!

A lot of people are too quick to write off the season when they see a modeled cold front.

To be fair, modeled cold fronts, verified or not, in theory does somewhat signify the end of Hurricane season in the CONUS as continental dry air dominates the region.

[Category5Kaiju]

Why October should never be written off especially in a La Nina year with very warm, above average sst anomalies in the Western Atlantic:

https://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/local/2021/10/01/october-hurricane-season-forecast-florida-sam-victor-wanda-track-path/5936589001/

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I think we always have to worry about October. I think too many people are thinking "season over." I think we will have some U.S. threats in October!

I fear October more than September: 2020, 2018, 2016, 2015 for recent examples.

[psyclone]

I think we always have to worry about October. I think too many people are thinking "season over." I think we will have some U.S. threats in October!

A lot of people are too quick to write off the season when they see a modeled cold front.

To be fair, modeled cold fronts, verified or not, in theory does somewhat signify the end of Hurricane season in the CONUS as continental dry air dominates the region.

There's certainly truth here but Autumn is a slow process below 30 latitude...with initial pushes of dry air frequently transient...and the fronts themselves often serve as a catalyst for TC development when they run out of gas... Just climo and the enso state favors 1 or more storms over the next few weeks. how strong they get and where they go...who knows. stay tuned but some issues are likely for someone

[Category5Kaiju]

I think we always have to worry about October. I think too many people are thinking "season over." I think we will have some U.S. threats in October!

I fear October more than September: 2020, 2018, 2016, 2015 for recent examples.

2012, 2005, 2001, 1999, 1998, and 1995 are some recent examples of years with powerful October storms too; for Floridians in particular, 2018, 2016, and 2005 should serve as reminders.

[LarryWx]

Good news fwiw. The 12Z Euro has no new TC throughout the run. But is it believable in the face of the GEFS? Or is the GEFS on crack? After all, even the 12Z Crazy Uncle suite has essentially nothing. Stay tuned for the next episode of "As the Models Churn".

[Teban54]

That one Ens Member pretty much shows a 1921 Tampa Bay hurricane redux

https://i.imgur.com/FLOgy8a.gif

Or equivalently, Hurricane Phoenix IRL.

[LarryWx]

It may not look like much but the 12Z EPS, unlike the prior run's no TCs then, actually has 3 members with TCs in the far W Caribbean at hour 156 when the 12Z GEFS starts going to town: could it be that the EPS is just slow to catch on?

Here is the 12Z EPS 156 with 3 TCs:



Here was the 0Z EPS with none:

[toad strangler]

A lot of people are too quick to write off the season when they see a modeled cold front.

To be fair, modeled cold fronts, verified or not, in theory does somewhat signify the end of Hurricane season in the CONUS as continental dry air dominates the region.

There's certainly truth here but Autumn is a slow process below 30 latitude...with initial pushes of dry air frequently transient...and the fronts themselves often serve as a catalyst for TC development when they run out of gas... Just climo and the enso state favors 1 or more storms over the next few weeks. how strong they get and where they go...who knows. stay tuned but some issues are likely for someone

Complete crickets through 240

[blp]

Good news fwiw. The 12Z Euro has no new TC throughout the run. But is it believable in the face of the GEFS? Or is the GEFS on crack? After all, even the 12Z Crazy Uncle suite has essentially nothing. Stay tuned for the next episode of "As the Models Churn".

I would not say the Crazy uncle has nothing. If you could run this loop past 240 it probably tightens that vorticity further.

EDIT: I guess you were referring to the GFS solution which is picking up on another area. If so, you are correct.

[toad strangler]

Good news fwiw. The 12Z Euro has no new TC throughout the run. But is it believable in the face of the GEFS? Or is the GEFS on crack? After all, even the 12Z Crazy Uncle suite has essentially nothing. Stay tuned for the next episode of "As the Models Churn".

I would not say the Crazy uncle has nothing. If you could run this loop past 240 it probably tightens that vorticity further.

https://i.ibb.co/L9xNYH8/gem-z850-vort-watl-fh186-240-new.gif

Ooooo good catch

[LarryWx]

It may not look like much but the 12Z EPS, unlike the prior run's no TCs then, actually has 3 members with TCs in the far W Caribbean at hour 156 when the 12Z GEFS starts going to town: could it be that the EPS is just slow to catch on?

Here is the 12Z EPS 156 with 3 TCs:

https://i.imgur.com/OUfjZE8.png

Here was the 0Z EPS with none:

https://i.imgur.com/Y9x88C8.png

12Z EPS followup on those 3 members (out of 51) with W Caribbean TCs at 156 (as the 12Z GEFS has for many members) (prior EPS run had none):

[SFLcane]

Good news fwiw. The 12Z Euro has no new TC throughout the run. But is it believable in the face of the GEFS? Or is the GEFS on crack? After all, even the 12Z Crazy Uncle suite has essentially nothing. Stay tuned for the next episode of "As the Models Churn".

Bias……..

[toad strangler]

Good news fwiw. The 12Z Euro has no new TC throughout the run. But is it believable in the face of the GEFS? Or is the GEFS on crack? After all, even the 12Z Crazy Uncle suite has essentially nothing. Stay tuned for the next episode of "As the Models Churn".

Bias……..

Adrian not on board

[SFLcane]

Good news fwiw. The 12Z Euro has no new TC throughout the run. But is it believable in the face of the GEFS? Or is the GEFS on crack? After all, even the 12Z Crazy Uncle suite has essentially nothing. Stay tuned for the next episode of "As the Models Churn".

Bias……..

Adrian not on board

I have been burned countless times by the GEFS especially this time of the year. The fact it’s alone for now I am sticking with a big meh.

[gatorcane]

Good news fwiw. The 12Z Euro has no new TC throughout the run. But is it believable in the face of the GEFS? Or is the GEFS on crack? After all, even the 12Z Crazy Uncle suite has essentially nothing. Stay tuned for the next episode of "As the Models Churn".

I would not say the Crazy uncle has nothing. If you could run this loop past 240 it probably tightens that vorticity further.

EDIT: I guess you were referring to the GFS solution which is picking up on another area. If so, you are correct.

https://i.ibb.co/L9xNYH8/gem-z850-vort-watl-fh186-240-new.gif

The CMC moves the area in the Eastern Caribbean into Central America with no development as shown below. The Euro does the same. The CMC is developing the wave behind and not the same area the GFS has:

[Spacecoast]

Comparing the 12z ensembles... Previous GEFS Bahamas track abandoned.