2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SouthFLTropics]

What a perfect time for a little Friday evening 18z GFS happy hour craziness. I'm going to gamble that we get an epic run out the 18z GFS coming up. Drink up everyone!!!

[LarryWx]

What a perfect time for a little Friday evening 18z GFS happy hour craziness. I'm going to gamble that we get an epic run out the 18z GFS coming up. Drink up everyone!!!

And right on schedule, here is the Happy Hour GFS doing Happy Hour things:

[SFLcane]

Will sink this into Central America.

[LarryWx]

Will sink this into Central America.

No, Adrian. This would likely be a major CONUS threat if real.

[boca]

Will sink this into Central America.

No, Adrian. This would likely be a major CONUS threat if real.

It moving due west into the Yucatán, unless steering currents drop and a cold front scoops it up and hits the new hurricane alley known as the northern gulf coast.

[LarryWx]

Will sink this into Central America.

No, Adrian. This would likely be a major CONUS threat if real.

It moving due west into the Yucatán, unless steering currents drop and a cold front scoops it up and hits the new hurricane alley known as the northern gulf coast.

I mean based on the 12Z GEFS and even the 3 members on the 12Z EPS for the same timeframe, the chance of just sinking into CA is not high. It isn't wise to have high confidence based on one operational GFS run's track. The fact that it has genesis is more telling imo. The HH GEFs will be interesting.

[boca]

No, Adrian. This would likely be a major CONUS threat if real.

It moving due west into the Yucatán, unless steering currents drop and a cold front scoops it up and hits the new hurricane alley known as the northern gulf coast.

I mean based on the 12Z GEFS and even the 3 members on the 12Z EPS for the same timeframe, the chance of just sinking into CA is not high. It isn't wise to have high confidence based on one operational GFS run's track. The fact that it has genesis is more telling imo. The HH GEFs will be interesting.

Looks like it’s BOC bound.

[WiscoWx02]

I am not anywhere near convinced with this yet. The GFS is literally the only model showing even a hint at something in this area within the same time frame. Have a feeling she's a ghost the GFS is chasing at this point but we'll see if any changes take place over the next day or two.

[LarryWx]

And now there's this offshore the SE US on the HH GFS, similar to prior runs but trapped this time with ridging to the north: Is this also a ghost? I don't know but this is a classic "Ridge Over Troubled Waters" pattern fwiw:

[WiscoWx02]

And now there's this offshore the SE US on the HH GFS, similar to prior runs but trapped this time with ridging to the north: Is this also a ghost? I don't know but this is a classic "Ridge Over Troubled Waters" pattern fwiw:

https://i.imgur.com/BZQ2OYS.png

I actually think whatever the heck that mess is off the east coast is ten times more likely to verify than the Caribbean Sea ghost. Would make sense with a tropical wave tracking into the Caribbean and a front draping southward pulling all the moisture north.

[LarryWx]

Will sink this into Central America.

No, Adrian. This would likely be a major CONUS threat if real.

It moving due west into the Yucatán, unless steering currents drop and a cold front scoops it up and hits the new hurricane alley known as the northern gulf coast.

But this thing off the Atlantic gets you on the 18Z GFS:

[boca]

No, Adrian. This would likely be a major CONUS threat if real.

It moving due west into the Yucatán, unless steering currents drop and a cold front scoops it up and hits the new hurricane alley known as the northern gulf coast.

I agree that’s in my neck of the woods.

But this thing off the Atlantic gets you on the 18Z GFS:
https://i.imgur.com/s5CLNaQ.png

[ronjon]

962 mb hurricane in western Caribbean in about a week or so according to 18z GFS. Chances it dives W-SW seem remote given time of year and abundance of troughiness this year over the eastern US. Still until more of the EPS ensemble members start jumping aboard could be typical GFS phantom.

[ronjon]

Low pressure gyre is large and broad in SW Atlantic. Hints at possible subtropical storm. GFS has shown this at various locations in the SW Atlantic over the last several runs. Strong high north of it is classic synoptic setup for inducing low pressure to its south.

[LarryWx]

HH GEFS: look out it is HH:

[cheezyWXguy]

Before calling this a ghost, note that genesis takes place at 126hr this run

[CyclonicFury]

While climatology is starting to favor Caribbean genesis and I do expect something to form down there later this month, the current GFS storm just seems like a phantom to me. A suppressed KW is also moving into the Atlantic and I don't think the timing is right yet. After October 10 might have a better chance.

[Hammy]

Before calling this a ghost, note that genesis takes place at 126hr this run

anything beyond 120h is outside the range of reasonable accuracy given how poorly they've done this year. I'd give it another few runs and see if it moves up further.

[Spacecoast]

GFS: 32%-43% genesis probability @126 hrs

[LarryWx]

Hold on, folks, the HH GEFS is looking to be a wild one again.