ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

Pressure holding up nicely @ 945. Indeed looks can be deceiving without the luxury of recon.

Last set of data supports an intensity around 115-120 kt.

[Teban54]

Looks like Sam is already on its way out in terms of both track and intensity, which is to be expected for anything north of 30N.

Regardless of whether Sam gets upgraded to a Cat 5 for either its first or second peak, it's already one hell of an overachiever for sure. I have to admit, I was even unsure if it would even become a Cat 4 until RI was underway, given that Larry failed to pull it off, Peter became a complete bust, and early intensity for Sam and official forecasts kept predicting it would peak at 110 kts and stay there for days. Who would have realistically said it would even reach 130-135 kts or even higher (twice!), much less staying as a major for a week.

We must be really thankful that Sam didn't even get close to land anywhere in its life. If it played out like the early Euro runs which insisted Sam would brush the islands, go west all the way to the Bahamas and recurve dangerously close to (or even make landfall on) the US East Coast, it would have almost certainly become an Irma-like monster Cat 5 with the much higher SST and OHC there.

[dexterlabio]

It would be really cool if Sam gets reanalyzed as a Cat5, and NHC never downgraded Iota from Cat5 in post analysis. 2021 would have been the 6th consecutive year with at least 1 Cat5 occurrence in the Atlantic.

[NDG]

Still with a very good vis satellite presentation this morning.
ACE up to 44.3 this morning.

[aspen]

Still a Cat 4 on the 12z best track. It’ll be past 45 ACE at 11am.

[kevin]

The current NHC forecast, linearly interpolated to get the 6 hr intervals, would have Sam reach 53.2 ACE, a #8 position since 1950 & ahead of Allen and just (by 0.3 ACE points) behind Luis. It would also make Sam the first 50+ ACE NATL storm since Irma.

[Sciencerocks]

[sikkar]

Still looking good given the latitude and the cooling SST's, probably a high end cat 3.

[CrazyC83]

What are the chances that Sam misses the trough connection and rides the Gulf Stream east? That could keep it alive as a TC much longer.

[aspen]

What are the chances that Sam misses the trough connection and rides the Gulf Stream east? That could keep it alive as a TC much longer.

I remember the Euro was showing that solution a few days ago, although it seems to have dropped it. I don’t know how likely it is for this scenario to unfold.

18z BT is slightly down to 110 kt, so that’s another 1.3-1.5 units of ACE next advisory.

[aspen]

Welp, there goes the eye.

[WiscoWx02]

Almost sad to see this start falling apart after watching it for so long. 47 units of ACE produced and one of the longest lived cat 4 hurricanes on record...amazing.

[kevin]

Me seeing Sam fall apart after all these days:

[aspen]

Sam’s low-shear environment, interaction with the trough, and track over the Gulf Stream should keep it above 100 mph for another few advisories, which should be enough to get it into the exclusive 50+ ACE Club.

[AnnularCane]

Almost sad to see this start falling apart after watching it for so long. 47 units of ACE produced and one of the longest lived cat 4 hurricanes on record...amazing.

The Atlantic is going to seem empty without Sammy.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1444442937371230216

[WiscoWx02]

Me seeing Sam fall apart after all these days:

https://i.imgur.com/2yrnZzV.gif

You kinda just ripped my heart out right there man

[Sciencerocks]

[storminabox]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/8091/mhP4ut.gif

So long Sam!

[aspen]

It looks better than it did last night. 12 hours ago, it seemed that Sam was on the verge of becoming post-tropical. Now it has deep convection centralized over the core with hints of an eye on visible imagery. It just needs to hold on for a few more advisories to surpass 50 ACE; it’s at 48.8 ACE as of 5am.