2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[gatorcane]

Classic October tracks on the 18Z GEFS:

[aspen]

If the 18z GFS were to verify — which it won’t — then we would see C3/4 Wanda in the WCar, C1/2 Adria in the subtropics, and TS Braylen in the Bahamas and Gulf. Talk about a Happy Hour run.

I don’t think the WCar system is a phantom; it develops in only 5 days and it seems to be sparked by the remnants of 91L. However, as CyclonicFury said, this is a suboptimal time to develop because of the weak suppressive Kelvin Wave, so it could be GFS bias making this into something more than it would actually turn out to be.

[blp]

18z Icon has it as well though does not go out far enough. So I think this might not be a phantom. CMC was off on the timing. So this one does bear watching.

[Spacecoast]

last 3 GEFS: 18z has significantly less members (3-4) through Cuba from Carib

[blp]

00z Ensembles significant reduction. CMC still not onboard with this inside 144hrs. Looking more like GFS OPS run is bogus.

[chaser1]

Has anyone checked to see if the UK had begun to sniff out potential Caribbean genesis thus far?

[chaser1]

I'm reasonably confident that by late Sunday or Monday, both the GEM and EURO will begin to perk up on West Caribbean genesis to occur in the 10/7 - 10/10 time-frame. I suggested this morning to look for ensemble members to possibly start trending a bit further west and that I believed that model genesis would probably end up being pushed back by a couple days as well.

Even if late weekend model runs begin to concur with each other it would probably be prudent to pay attention to the model consensus "choir" - and give minimal stock to any of the individual model "singers". To give much credence to any one model track or strength forecast prior to "actual genesis" would be like running blindfolded into a dense forest and believing you'll accurately predict which tree will crack your skull open

[johngaltfla]

Classic October tracks on the 18Z GEFS:

https://i.postimg.cc/MZtxhyqs/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh96-210.gif

If we were hit by every storm the GFS and GEFS develops 7-10+ days out, Florida would cease to exist. I'll take a long hard wait and see until more information is fed into the models closer to the 7th and 8th.

[toad strangler]

Classic October tracks on the 18Z GEFS:

https://i.postimg.cc/MZtxhyqs/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh96-210.gif

If we were hit by every storm the GFS and GEFS develops 7-10+ days out, Florida would cease to exist. I'll take a long hard wait and see until more information is fed into the models closer to the 7th and 8th.

The GFS hasn’t threatened FL at all this year lol

These are just long range ensembles and not one person here actually believes a specific threat has any merit. 6z GEFS have backed off and the 0z Euro op still shows nada

[NDG]

Classic October tracks on the 18Z GEFS:

https://i.postimg.cc/MZtxhyqs/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh96-210.gif

If we were hit by every storm the GFS and GEFS develops 7-10+ days out, Florida would cease to exist. I'll take a long hard wait and see until more information is fed into the models closer to the 7th and 8th.

The GFS hasn’t threatened FL at all this year lol

These are just long range ensembles and not one person here actually believes a specific threat has any merit. 6z GEFS have backed off and the 0z Euro op still shows nada

"The GFS hasn't threatened FL at all this year"?
Did you forget about Elsa, Fred and Mindy already?

This might be just another case in which the GFS is ahead of itself with actual development timing, whether whatever develops down the road and threatens FL is another story.

[aspen]

If we were hit by every storm the GFS and GEFS develops 7-10+ days out, Florida would cease to exist. I'll take a long hard wait and see until more information is fed into the models closer to the 7th and 8th.

The GFS hasn’t threatened FL at all this year lol

These are just long range ensembles and not one person here actually believes a specific threat has any merit. 6z GEFS have backed off and the 0z Euro op still shows nada

"The GFS hasn't threatened FL at all this year"?
Did you forget about Elsa, Fred and Mindy already?

This might be just another case in which the GFS is ahead of itself with actual development timing, whether whatever develops down the road and threatens FL is another story.

To be fair, I think everyone has forgotten about Mindy already lol

[toad strangler]

If we were hit by every storm the GFS and GEFS develops 7-10+ days out, Florida would cease to exist. I'll take a long hard wait and see until more information is fed into the models closer to the 7th and 8th.

The GFS hasn’t threatened FL at all this year lol

These are just long range ensembles and not one person here actually believes a specific threat has any merit. 6z GEFS have backed off and the 0z Euro op still shows nada

"The GFS hasn't threatened FL at all this year"?
Did you forget about Elsa, Fred and Mindy already?

This might be just another case in which the GFS is ahead of itself with actual development timing, whether whatever develops down the road and threatens FL is another story.

Elsa wasn’t a Grade A GFS threat. Nope

[wxman57]

Very high westerly wind shear across the Gulf now. That shear should continue through next week. This season looks more "normal" across the Gulf, with the jet stream already down south, protecting the northern Gulf from any storms. Florida peninsula is sill not out of the woods, though. Former 91L is destined for Central America and/or southern Mexico.

[Shell Mound]

Very high westerly wind shear across the Gulf now. That shear should continue through next week. This season looks more "normal" across the Gulf, with the jet stream already down south, protecting the northern Gulf from any storms. Florida peninsula is sill not out of the woods, though. Former 91L is destined for Central America and/or southern Mexico.

Not exactly normal for a Niña year, however...

[otowntiger]

Very high westerly wind shear across the Gulf now. That shear should continue through next week. This season looks more "normal" across the Gulf, with the jet stream already down south, protecting the northern Gulf from any storms. Florida peninsula is sill not out of the woods, though. Former 91L is destined for Central America and/or southern Mexico.

Sounds about right. And while the peninsula may not be out of the woods, there does not appear to be anything remotely threatening in the next 10 days. Hopefully our luck continues to hold thru the rest of the season.

[toad strangler]

Very high westerly wind shear across the Gulf now. That shear should continue through next week. This season looks more "normal" across the Gulf, with the jet stream already down south, protecting the northern Gulf from any storms. Florida peninsula is sill not out of the woods, though. Former 91L is destined for Central America and/or southern Mexico.

Sounds about right. And while the peninsula may not be out of the woods, there does not appear to be anything remotely threatening in the next 10 days. Hopefully our luck continues to hold thru the rest of the season.

I don't think the 2nd half of October / 2nd peak will behave. Where that bad behavior happens specifically is impossible to know.

[NDG]

The GFS hasn’t threatened FL at all this year lol

These are just long range ensembles and not one person here actually believes a specific threat has any merit. 6z GEFS have backed off and the 0z Euro op still shows nada

"The GFS hasn't threatened FL at all this year"?
Did you forget about Elsa, Fred and Mindy already?

This might be just another case in which the GFS is ahead of itself with actual development timing, whether whatever develops down the road and threatens FL is another story.

Elsa wasn’t a Grade A GFS threat. Nope

Admit it, you forgot about it

[toad strangler]

"The GFS hasn't threatened FL at all this year"?
Did you forget about Elsa, Fred and Mindy already?

This might be just another case in which the GFS is ahead of itself with actual development timing, whether whatever develops down the road and threatens FL is another story.

Elsa wasn’t a Grade A GFS threat. Nope

Admit it, you forgot about it

Like 2 days later

[Spacecoast]

Has anyone checked to see if the UK had begun to sniff out potential Caribbean genesis thus far?

[Ubuntwo]

12z GFS is more enthusiastic on the SWATL system which it has been on and off with for days. IMO that is the basin's best chance at a named storm over the next ten days. Still lacking model support outside the GFS.